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NBA Rookie of the Year Odds Shift After Holmgren Injury

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in NBA Basketball

Updated Aug 25, 2022 · 7:52 AM PDT

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren walking up the court with teammates
Jul 9, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) leads Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey (3), Oklahoma City Thunder guard Aaron Wiggins (21) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Tre Mann (23) across the floor during an NBA Summer League game against the Houston Rockets at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
  • OKC Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren suffered a serious foot injury over the weekend in a Pro-am game
  • His 2023 Rookie of the Year odds have dropped from +475 to +1000 as a result
  • Is Holmgren still worth a bet or should you focus on another rookie like Paolo Banchero? Read on for the updated odds and analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder fans held their breath on Wednesday after it was revealed that rookie sensation Chet Holmgren has significant ligament damage after suffering a foot injury in Seattle over the weekend in a Pro-Am game. The second overall pick was guarding LeBron James and instantly came up hobbling. After the news broke, his 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year odds have faded  from an average of +475 two months ago to +1000.

It’s unknown how much time Holmgren could miss as doctors determine his timetable for return, but it certainly has shaken up the ROTY race.

Editor’s note: this story was published prior to the announcement that Holmgren would miss the entirety of the 2022-23 season. He has since been take off the board in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds. 

2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Odds
Paolo Banchero +220
Keegan Murray +450
Jabari Smith Jr +700
Jaden Ivey +750
Chet Holmgren +1000
Bennedict Mathurin +1000
Shaedon Sharpe +1800
Dyson Daniels +2000
Johnny Davis +2500
Ousmane Dieng +2500
Jalen Williams +2800
Jalen Duren +3000
Ochai Agbaji +3000
Jaden Hardy +3500
A.J. Griffin +3500
Mark Williams +3500
Jeremy Sochan +4000
Blake Wesley +4000
Walker Kessler +4500
Malaki Branham +4500

Odds as of August 24th at DraftKings Sportsbook.



Does Holmgren Still Have a Chance at ROTY?

There’s still around a month until training camp begins, but foot injuries can linger. Nevertheless, we just don’t know how much time he could truly miss. It’s a toss-up. Holmgren was surely going to have a rather established role for the Thunder from the get-go and that’s exactly why he was in the mix in the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

To be honest though, with how Holmgren’s built, I personally think it will take him some time to grow into his body and succeed at the NBA level. There’s also Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey on this OKC squad who are likely to get more touches than Holmgren.

Even at +475, Holmgren wasn’t worth a shot.  Regardless of how long the big man is out, he’s not the ROTY pick.

Other 2023 NBA ROY Betting Options

Personally, I see Paolo Banchero of the Orlando Magic as the clear-cut Rookie of the Year favorite and the odds (+220) say just that. He’s stepping onto a team that is in dire need of a star who can take the bull by the horns and lead by example. Banchero is built for the NBA with a strong stature and very sound all-around skillset where he can score at all three levels. Sure, Orlando isn’t a contender in NBA Championship odds, but he will make them a lot better.

Another dark horse is Sacramento Kings wing, Keegan Murray. He absolutely balled out in the Summer League, taking home MVP after averaging 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and two assists per contest. With Sacramento a little bit thin at the forward position, Murray should get lots of opportunities to shine in Year 1. He just proved in Vegas that he’s more than capable of getting buckets at the pro level.

You also can’t sleep on Jabari Smith Jr or Jaden Ivey. Smith has a breathtaking shot and is a seamless fit on a young, exciting Houston Rockets team. Ivey meanwhile has a Ja Morant-like motor and also fits the direction the Detroit Pistons are heading.

Chet Holmgren is going to be a very good player for many years to come. If his injury isn’t too serious, I expect him to impress in his freshman campaign. But, there are better options in the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year odds like Banchero.

Pick: Paolo Banchero (+220)


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