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Updated Rockets vs Warriors Series Price: Golden State Listed at -410 After Game 1

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 7:24 AM PDT

James Harden
Can the Houston Rockets even up the series in Game 2? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr) [CC License].
  • The Houston Rockets shot just 29.8% from the three-point line in Game 1
  • The Rockets lost the war on the boards in Game 1
  • The Warriors are 10-9 in their last 19 meetings with Houston

The Golden State Warriors edged the Houston Rockets 104-100 in Game 1 of their Western Conference Semifinal. The Rockets had hoped to steal Game 1 as they were well-rested while the Warriors were banged up and on short rest. The series odds have been adjusted and Golden State is favored even more now. Is Houston a good value play at this point?

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Playoff Series Odds

Team Odds to Win Series
Houston Rockets +340
Golden State Warriors -410

*Odds taken 04/28/19

Rockets Played Well Enough to Win Game 1

The Rockets were frustrated in Game 1 as a lot of plays that were normally called fouls in the regular season (not allowing a shooter to land) were not called in their favor in Game 1. Even so, they only lost by four and had a chance to tie the game in the dying seconds.

What’s also really positive is that the Rockets were outrebounded by 12 and shot just 14-of-47 (29.8%) from three, yet they only lost by four. Those numbers should improve in their favor in Game 2.

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Rockets Feel Like They Let One Get Away

There’s no question that the Rockets wanted to send a message here. Unfortunately, they sent the wrong one.

Golden State had somewhat struggled with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, needing six games to dispose of them. They actually lost two home games in that series, which – if you’re keeping track at home – is more home losses than they’ve had in the last two postseasons combined.

The Warriors had just one day off before the start of their series with Houston. The Rockets had been off since Wednesday.

Also, that series ended on Friday and the Warriors had just one day off before the start of their series with Houston. As for the Rockets, they had been off since Wednesday. They flew to Oakland on Friday to be in town early and get acclimated to the time change. Even as the fresher team, Houston couldn’t find a way to win on the road.

Rockets’ Three-Point Shooting Could Be Better, But So Could the Warriors’

A lot of people will look at Houston’s 14-of-47 and say to themselves that number could be better. However, the same can be said for Golden State. This is a team that is second in the NBA Playoffs with 12.8 threes made per game. They were only seven-of-22 in Game 1.

In particular, Steph Curry was just three-of-10 and Durant, who averaged 3.0 threes per game in the first round, was just one-of-three in Game 1.

Bet The Rockets on the Game 2 Spread

This series is still a bit of a toss-up, but seeing Golden State survive and thrive in Game 1 leads me to believe that they’ll be the team that eventually wins this series. However, I did like how Houston played and if they clean up a couple of things, they should be right there again in Game 2.

Many people feel that the fatigue factor (worn down team versus rested team) comes into play in Game 1, and usually it does. Sometimes adrenaline carries a team through, though, and it doesn’t hit them until Game 2. I’m expecting to see more of that in Game 2.

Instead of betting the series price right now, I’d bet the Rockets plus the points in Game 2.

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