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Kansas’ Win Over Baylor Leads to National Championship Odds Holding at +700

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Basketball

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 6:51 PM PDT

No. 3 Kansas' National Championship odds didn't budge following a road victory over No. 1 Baylor. David Golokhov breaks down the latest update to the March Madness odds here.
  • The No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks beat the No. 1 Baylor Bears 64-61 on Saturday.
  • The Bears 23-game winning streak came to an end and it was their first loss to a Top-25 ranked opponent this season (6-1).
  • How has the Kansas win and Baylor loss impacted the 2020 National Championship odds?

The No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks pulled a mild upset on Saturday when they upended the No. 1 Baylor Bears 64-61. It was significant not only because the Bears are the No. 1 team in the country but because they were on a Big 12-record 23-game winning streak. Is this a bad sign for Baylor or was it just a tough loss to a quality opponent?

2020 NCAA Tournament Odds

Team Odds
Kansas Jayhawks +700
Baylor Bears +800
Gonzaga Bulldogs +800
Duke Blue Devils +900
San Diego State Aztecs +1200
Louisville Cardinals +1500
Kentucky Wildcats +1600
Maryland Terrapins +1700
Dayton Flyers +2000
Michigan State Spartans +2500

Odds updated Feb. 22nd

Jayhawks Ruin Baylor’s Big Day

Saturday was one of the biggest games in Baylor basketball history. Riding a 23-game winning streak and holding the No. 1 ranking in the country, Baylor had a chance to emphatically make the point that they’re a legit threat in the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they fell short to the Kansas Jayhawks.

In fairness, it wasn’t a bad loss by any means as a three-point home loss to the No. 3 team in the country, who is now riding a 12-game winning streak, is nothing to be ashamed of. At the same time, given that Baylor doesn’t have a history of basketball success, it feels like they’ve been trying to prove that they’re for real all season long.

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In this particular spot, Baylor clearly didn’t play their best game. Again, it’s not a bad loss but it definitely feels like they flopped in a big moment and there will be plenty more of them to come. It’s now going to open the door for bettors to be skeptical of them long-term – especially when we’re talking about NCAA Tournament futures.

Bears Have No Answer For Azubuike

Baylor won at Kansas earlier in the season and when they did, one of the big reasons was their ability to hold Udoka Azubuike to just six points. In the rematch on Saturday, Azubuike finished with 23 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks.

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What’s interesting to note is that the Baylor defense was nowhere to be found on Saturday. The team that’s third in KenPom.com’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency held Kansas to just 55 points in their first meeting. On Saturday, Kansas scored 64 points while shooting 51% from the field.

What Does This Tell Us About March Madness Futures?

This is a big win for the Jayhawks but it’s not all that surprising. They were only +1 or +1.5 at close for Saturday’s game – depending on the sportsbook. Their 2020 National Championship odds held steady at +700, and it’s hard to imagine them getting any shorter leading up to March Madness.

As for Baylor, their price also didn’t change, holding firm at +800. This loss probably doesn’t impact them right away in terms of seeding but it could in the long run.

At this point, they’ve probably fallen into the spot of the fourth No. 1 seed but that will be up for debate. Then they’ll still have to play at No. 17 West Virginia to end the year and they’ll also maybe face Kansas again at the Big 12 Tournament. One more slip up and they’ll fall out of a No. 1 seed.

Beyond that, this loss showed that they may not have the moxie for the big moments of the NCAA Tournament. It’s just one loss and they’ve played great against ranked teams this season but this felt like the type of game they’ll encounter in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight or Final Four. Bettors will feel less confident about them in those spots given today’s loss.

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