Big East Tournament Odds, Picks, and Predictions

• The Big East Conference Tournament begins Wednesday, March 10, and runs through Saturday, March 13, with all games played at Madison Square Garden
• Villanova and Creighton, the tourney’s top-two seeds, each have significant issues heading into the postseason
• See the odds, bracket, and full tournament preview, below

The Big East Conference Tournament gets underway with three first-round games on Wednesday, March 10, at Madison Square Garden. Quarterfinal games, featuring the tourney’s top-five seeds, take place Thursday. The championship game is slated for Saturday, March 13. Tip time for that one is set for 6:30 pm ET at MSG.

Villanova is the tourney’s top seed and has been the class of the conference all season. But the Wildcats have seen their NCAA Tournament odds drop for good reason. They head to the Big Apple without their emotional leader, Collin Gillespie, who tore his MCL against Creighton last Wednesday. The status of his successor at the point, Justin Moore, is up-in-the-air. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have their own set of issues. Head coach Greg McDermott has been suspended indefinitely following racially insensitive comments to his players following a loss to Xavier Feb. 27.

The ‘Cats and Jays are still the favorites, but not by much.

2021 Big East Tournament Odds

Odds as of March 8th. 

*Favorite

If the Wildcats are going to win their fourth straight Big East tourney title (and fifth in six years), they’ll have to do it without the player whom head coach Jay Wright called the heart and soul of the team in Gillespie. And they may have to do it without Moore. That’s why ‘Nova’s favorite status carries a rather large asterisk next to it.

Villanova down 17 at halftime to Providence — and Justin Moore, their best guard now that Collin Gillespie is hurt, had to be helped off with his own injury. Jay Wright’s team can’t catch a break right now.

— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 6, 2021

If the team’s first game without Gillespie — a 54-52 loss at Providence Saturday to close out the regular season — was any indication of how the ‘Cats will play moving forward, the 2016 and 2018 NCAA Tournament champions will be hard-pressed to make a deep run in the conference tourney, let alone the Big Dance. Add Moore’s uncertainty due to a severely sprained left ankle, and you have a situation that warrants serious doubt about Villanova’s chances at MSG.

Without the nearly 27 points per game that the two were averaging together, the Wildcats will need to rely on the likes of Jermaine Samuels, Jeremiah Robinson Earl, and Caleb Daniels to step up and carry the burden. The 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Robinson-Earl is certainly capable. He’s the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 15.2 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, respectively. He’s also the highest-rated recruit on Wright’s roster. Now is certainly the time for Kansas City area product to shine.

Perhaps we shouldn’t put too much stock in Saturday’s ugly two-point loss to Providence. After all, Villanova almost pulled out a mostly meaningless game against a worthy conference opponent on the road without two of its best players. They Wildcats still have the most talent in the league — and don’t have the off-the-court drama the team with the next-shortest odds does.

Ugly Situation

What’s happening with the Creighton program right now is ugly. There’s no other way to describe the situation in Omaha these days surrounding the Blue Jays.

After a loss to the Musketeers last weekend, McDermott told his players, “I need everybody to stay on the plantation. I can’t have anybody leave the plantation.”

Being tone-deaf and making that kind of analogy in 2021 is bad enough — but how the university has handled the aftermath is nearly as outrageous. Blue Jays players said they were hurt by the comments, and with Alan Huss taking over as interim head coach, Creighton looked liberated in a 93-73 victory at home over Butler Saturday for a nice bump heading into the program’s first game in Manhattan Thursday.

But with McDermott’s uncertain future hanging over the program heading into the media capital of the world, you’d have to think it would be a major distraction. Perhaps the COVID situation — with the press not having as large of a presence it normally would at the Garden this week — might help.

Lots of people have asked and here it is.

Creighton players address Greg McDermott's racially insensitive comments last week, prior to Saturday's game against Butler.@KETV pic.twitter.com/BEntq0J4jR

— Matt Lothrop (@MattLothrop7) March 7, 2021

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how long Creighton’s players, who have shown maturity beyond their years, will be able to sustain a quality product on the court.

Back to the Future

With both Villanova and Creighton so flawed, perhaps a pair of old school Big East powers can rise up once again this week. UConn (+500) has won four in a row and six of its last seven. The program also won this tournament six times, the last time coming in 2011 when Kemba Walker helped lead the Huskies all the way to a National Championship. Head coach Dan Hurley’s team just beat fellow Big East blue blood Georgetown 98-82 in Storrs Saturday.

Unlike Villanova, the Huskies are healthy. After injuries to leading scorer James Bouknight and talented freshman Andre Jackson sidelined both for different six-week stretches, they are back and as good as ever. The Huskies might just be the team to beat.

Another program to keep an eye is the tourney’s de facto home team St. John’s. The Johnnies have captured three Big Ten tourney titles, the last of which was 2000. They just beat Seton Hall 81-71 Saturday to close out the regular season.

Top 5⃣ Plays from Saturday Night at Carnesecca Arena! 📽️ #SJUBB pic.twitter.com/Vap3W99h8W

— St. John's BBall (@StJohnsBBall) March 7, 2021

Mike Anderson’s squad clinched the fourth seed with the 10-point victory, but has been without potential league Freshman of the Year point guard Posh Alexander the past couple of games due to a thumb injury. His status is uncertain heading into the tourney. The team does feature the conference’s leading scorer Julian Champagnie (averaging 19.9 points per game), who earned All-Big East First-Team honors.

With question marks around the top two teams, this feels like UConn’s tourney to lose. I’m going with the Huskies to make a run in the Big Apple.

The pick: UConn (+240)