Upcoming Match-ups

Maryland vs Michigan Odds, Lines, and Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Updated Dec 16, 2022 · 2:39 AM PST

Hunter Dickinson Michigan Wolverines
Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) shoots over the defense of Indiana forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Bloomington, Ind., in this Saturday, Feb. 27, 2021, file photo. Dickson is The AP Big Ten Newcomer of the Year, announced Tuesday, March 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler, File)
  • No. 4 Michigan is an 8.5-point favorite over Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinal on Friday (March 12th, 11:30 am ET)
  • The Wolverines won both matchups this season by a combined 35 points
  • See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction

No. 4 Michigan gets its first taste of this year’s Big Ten Tournament on Friday (March 12th) when it hosts Maryland at 11:30 am ET. The Wolverines, the conference’s regular season champs, earned a bye into Friday’s quarterfinal, while the Terrapins knocked off red-hot Michigan State on Thursday in the opening round.

Maryland vs #4 Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Maryland Terrapins +8.5 (-105) OFF Over 133.0 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines -8.5 (-115) OFF Under 133.0 (-110)

Odds as of March 11th. See the best Maryland online sports betting sites. 

Not surprisingly, Michigan opened up as a sizeable 8.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 133. The Wolverines (19-3, 14-3 Big Ten) dominated the Terrapins (16-12, 9-11 Big Ten) in two matchups this season, winning by 11 on the road, and by 24 more recently at home.

Michigan Stumbles Down the Stretch

The past week however, has been a frustrating one for the Juwan Howard’s crew, as they split their final two games with the Spartans, after being blown out by #3 Illinois in Ann Arbor.

Last time out, they fell 70-64 to Michigan State, but more importantly suffered a key loss to their front court. Senior guard Eli Brooks had to be carried off the floor with an ankle injury, and was in a walking boot after the game.

There is no update to his status prior to Friday’s tilt with Maryland, but a prolonged absence could have major implications for the Wolverines’ prospects this week, and more importantly in the NCAA Tournament. Brooks was fourth on the team in scoring (8.7 ppg) and averaged 3 assists per outing. He started 51 games over the past two years, and his injury will put more pressure on Franz Wagner, Isaiah Livers and Hunter Dickinson.

All three average in double-figures, and rack up at least 6 rebounds per contest. Michigan ranks fourth in the Big Ten in points per game, second in field goal percentage and three-point efficiency, and third in assists.

Defensively however, is where they shine. The Wolverines are number one in the conference in scoring defense and opponent shooting percentage, and third in defensive rebounding.

Can Maryland Make More Noise?

The Terps victory over the Spartans snapped a two-game losing streak, and marked the second time they’ve beaten up Michigan State this season. Guards Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins led the way offensively, with 21 and 19 points apiece, helping Maryland win its first conference tournament game since 2016.

The Terrapins erased an early 12-point deficit, largely thanks to their defense, and now appear poised to return to the NCAA Tournament for the 29th time. They forced the Spartans to miss 16 of their final 17 attempts during the first half, and forced 18 turnovers which they converted into 27 points.

Offensively, it wasn’t pretty, as they shot just 38.2% from the field, but Maryland has never been confused with an offensive juggernaut. They rank 14th in the Big Ten in points per game, seventh in field-goal percentage, and last in offensive rebounding.

This Game Stays Under

The poor offensive numbers have led to the vast majority of the Terrapins’ games coming in under the total. The under has hit in each of their past five contests, and is 13-4 in their Big Ten games this season. Not only are they inefficient on offense, but they also play incredibly slow. They rank 316th in the nation in tempo, and 281st in possession length.

Playing slow is something these two programs have in common, as Michigan ranks 246th in tempo. Fuelled by an elite defense, only three of the Wolverines past nine games have cleared 134 points, and like Maryland, the under has hit in each of its past five. I’m willing to bet that trend continues on Friday.

Pick: Under 133 (-110)

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