- #4 Texas hosts Big 12 rival #15 Texas Tech on Wednesday (Jan. 13, 9 pm EST)
- Longhorns guard Matt Coleman has failed to exceed 13 points in five of his last six games
- See below for our favorite player props and best bets for this Big 12 showdown
The marquee matchup on Wednesday’s college hoops schedule features #15 Texas Tech visiting #4 Texas in Austin. The Red Raiders (10-3, 3-2 Big 12) enter play fresh off back-to-back victories, while the Longhorns (10-1, 4-0 Big 12) have yet to taste defeat in conference play.
This game features two of the premier defenses in the NCAA, as both programs rank top-5 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom’s metrics. For the last four seasons, the Red Raiders have been the gold standard at the defensive end, and they’ll look to continue their impressive performance on defense against the 12th most efficient offense in the Nation.
#15 Texas Tech vs #4 Texas Player Props
|Kyler Edwards (Red Raiders)||10.0 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Matt Coleman III (Longhorns)||13.0 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Mac McClung (Red Raiders)||14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Andrew Jones (Longhorns)||12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Terrence Shannon Jr. (Red Raiders)||12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Courtney Ramey (Longhorns)||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Greg Brown III (Longhorns)||12.0 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
All Odds taken Jan. 13th at DraftKings.
Typically, there’s more value betting unders on player props for a couple reasons. One, the general public loves betting overs, and who can blame them since it’s no fun cheering against players to score, so online sportsbooks naturally shade the lines a little higher. The second, is that there are more outs to an under hitting. A player could get injured, ejected, or into foul trouble, which drastically decreases the chance of them going over their prop.
Prop #1: Greg Brown Under 12 Points
The first under target on our list is Texas’ Greg Brown. The Freshman forward is averaging exactly 12 points per game, a number significantly boosted by his play against inferior opponents. Versus lightweights Iowa State, Sam Houston State and Texas State, the reigning Big 12 Newcomer of the Week is pouring in 16.6 points per outing. Against top ranked competition however, it’s a different story.
Texas' Andrew Jones was named the Big 12 Player of the Week. Not to be outdone, Greg Brown was named the league's Newcomer of the Week, too.
— Brian Davis (@BDavisAAS) January 11, 2021
The Longhorns have played four ranked teams to date (Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and West Virginia) and Brown has been a non-factor on offense. He’s produced point totals of 12, 5, 7 and 10 in those outings, reaching 10 shot attempts just once. For the season, he’s fourth on the team in shot attempts, and fourth in minutes played.
The fourth option against the fifth toughest defense in all of college basketball is not someone I want to be backing, especially in a game with just a 131-point total.
Pick: Greg Brown Under 12 points (-112), 1 unit
Prop #2: Matt Coleman Under 13 Points
We’ll stick to fading the Texas offense by targeting the under on Matt Coleman’s point total. Coleman, a Longhorns Senior, has plenty of experience against the Red Raiders, with middling results. He’s faced them six times in his career, failing to eclipse 8 points in half of those outing. This season, he’s averaging a career best 13.6 points per game, but hasn’t topped 13 points in five of his past six outings.
Big 12 Preseason Awards:
Jared Butler, Baylor
Marcus Garrett, Kansas
Austin Reaves, Oklahoma
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma St.
Matt Coleman, Texas
Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) October 28, 2020
Coleman is a fantastic player, but there are a couple of reasons to buy the under in this matchup. He’s the best passer on the team, averaging a full assist more than anyone else, and could be reduced to more of a facilitator due to a big size disadvantage he’ll face. Coleman stands just 6-foot-2, while six of the Red Raiders primary guard defenders are 6-foot-4 or taller, with two of them measuring 6-foot-7.
Also working against Coleman is the fact that he’s been a weak 3-point shooter this season. He’s draining just 33% of his long range looks and is 0-for-7 from 3 in his last two games. It’d will be tough to eclipse 13 points if his 3-ball isn’t falling.
Pick: Matt Coleman Under 13 points (-112), 1 unit
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