Upcoming Match-ups

Auburn vs Tennessee Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Feb. 28)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Feb 28, 2024 · 9:21 AM PST

Tennessee Volunteers basketball team on the floor
Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht (3), guard Santiago Vescovi (25), guard Josiah-Jordan James (30), forward Tobe Awaka (11), and guard Zakai Zeigler (5) are seen on the court during an NCAA game against Vanderbilt at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
  • Two of the top teams in the SEC meet on Wednesday when the #11 Auburn Tigers visit the #4 Tennessee Volunteers
  • Tennessee is tied with Alabama at the top of the SEC standings with Auburn just one game back
  • See the Auburn vs Tennessee odds, player props, and predictions for Wednesday’s tilt in Knoxville

Looking to stay level with Alabama at the top of the SEC standings, the #4 Tennessee Volunteers (21-6, 11-3 SEC, 13-1 home, 13-13-1 ATS) host the #11 Auburn Tigers (21-6, 10-4 SEC, 4-4 away, 17-10 ATS) at Thompson Boling Arena on Wednesday night at 7:00 pm ET.

With a near-perfect 13-1 home record this season, which includes a 20-point win over Bama and an 11-point win over Kentucky, the Vols have been set as sizable favorites against the Tigers.

Auburn vs Tennessee Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Auburn Tigers +6.5 (-110) +225 Over 152.5 (-110)
Tennessee Volunteers -6.5 (-110) -295 Under 152.5 (-110)

Tennessee is 6.5-point home chalk in today’s college basketball odds and -295 on the moneyline. Auburn is a +225 road underdog to win straight-up. Though both teams have top-five defenses in terms of efficiency, the game total is at a relatively high 152.5, as both teams also have top-20 offenses and rank in the top 80 in the nation in tempo.

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Odds as of Feb. 28. See the latest on NC betting promos before sports betting launches in North Carolina on March. 11. 

Tennessee is currently the fifth-favorite in the March Madness odds at +1357. Auburn has the seventh-shortest odds to win the national championship at +1871, on average.

Tennessee Rides Four-Game Win Streak Into Battle with Auburn

A loss to Texas A&M on Feb. 10 dropped the Vols one game back to Alabama in the race for the SEC regular-season title, but Tennessee has since rattled off four straight wins. Coupled with Bama’s loss to Kentucky last time out, the Vols and Tide are once again knotted atop the SEC.

Tennessee exacted a measure of revenge against the Aggies last time out, demolishing Texas A&M 86-51 at Thompson Boling Arena. Dalton Knecht (20.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.1 APG) had another superb game with 24 points and seven rebounds while big man Jonas Aidoo added 18 points and 14 rebounds (including six on offense).

YouTube video

After a stunning home upset at the hands of South Carolina on Jan. 30 (63-59 as 13.5-point favorites), the Vols have won three straight at home all by at least 20 points.

Tennessee currently sits sixth in overall efficiency at KenPom and Torvik and fifth at Haslametrics.

Auburn Just .500 in True Road Games This Year

As phenomenally as Auburn started the year (16-2 including wins over Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss), the Tigers’ play of late has left a little to be desired, especially on the road. Auburn is just 5-4 in its last nine games overall and, despite a 97-76 win at Georgia last time out, 4-4 in true road games this season.

Only one of those losses, however, came by more than six points (an 81-65 rout at the hands of Florida on Feb. 10).

YouTube video

The Tigers are a top-five team at all three major analytics sites (fifth at KenPom and fourth at both Haslametrics and Torvik), thanks mostly to their suffocating defense. Auburn rates fifth in defensive efficiency and is holding teams to just 43.1% from inside the arc (fourth in the nation) and a 43.5 effective field-goal percentage (first in the nation).

Their offense largely runs through forwards Johni Broome (16.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) and Jaylin Williams (13.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and they struggle from three relative to other top teams, hitting at just 34.1% from beyond the arc (169th).

AUB vs TEN Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Dalton Knecht (TEN) 22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -185) 2.5 (Ov -245 | Un +185)
Denver Jones (AUB) 7.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) OFF OFF 1.5 (Ov -230 | Un +175)
Johny Broome (AUB) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) 8.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) OFF 0.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jonas Aidoo (TEN) 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 8.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) OFF OFF
Josiah-Jordan James (TEN) 8.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) OFF OFF
KD Johnson (AUB) 7.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) OFF OFF OFF
Zakai Zeigler (TEN) 12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +130 | Un -170) 5.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)

College basketball player props from DraftKings on Feb. 28.  Read the latest on DraftKings North Carolina.

Despite playing a formidable Tiger defense, Knecht is listed with a point total of 22.5, more than two points over his season average. Broome is the highest of the Auburn players at 15.5, slightly below his season average of 16.1 PPG.

Auburn vs Tennessee Prediction

Auburn’s four road wins this year have come against teams rated 73rd or worse at KenPom. They are 0-3 against teams in the top 30, with a 69-64 loss at #83 App State in early December thrown in. They were mostly competitive in those road games, losing by just four at Alabama and six at Mississippi State before the ugly loss to the Gators.

The projections for this game (across the board) have Tennessee winning by three, yet the spread is an inflated 6.5. I am going to back Auburn’s defense to keep this score respectable.

AUB vs TEN pick: Auburn +6.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 16-14 (+0.52 units)
  • Moneyline: 2-7 (-6.48 units)
  • Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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