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Baylor vs Gonzaga Live Odds and Betting Updates for the March Madness Championship

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Apr 5, 2021 · 5:31 PM PDT

Baylor Bears
Baylor's MaCio Teague gathers his teammates for a meeting during the second half of an NCAA college basketball gameagainst Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 Conference tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Thursday, March 11, 2021. Baylor won 74-68. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Baylor vs Gonzaga tips off at 9:20 pm ET
  • An hour before game-time, Gonzaga was a 4.5-point favorite while the total sat at 159.5
  • Follow along below for live updates on the odds, including the point spread, moneyline, and over/under

Tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-0) will look to cap off the first perfect season in college basketball since the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers and bring the city of Spokane its first national championship. Standing in their way are the Baylor Bears (27-2), who are also in search of their school’s first title.

Despite combining for zero championships, this was the title game many predicted from the start of the season. Gonzaga and Baylor were ranked first and second, respectively, in the preseason AP Poll. The Coaches Poll also had them 1-2, but in the other order. Gonzaga has been the top-rated team at KenPom for all but one week in late December, when they ceded that spot to Baylor.

The oddsmakers give Gonzaga a clear edge, opening the spread at Gonzaga -5. Over the past 48 hours, it has come down half a point.

Baylor vs Gonzaga National Championship Live Odds (Halftime)

Team Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Baylor Bears -16 (-110) OFF OFF
Gonzaga Bulldogs +16 (-115) OFF OFF

Odds as of  11:11 pm ET, April 5th.

Live Updates

  • 11:23 pm ET: In the final minute, Baylor leads 84-67 and there are no betting options remaining.
  • 11:17 pm ET: Baylor still leads by 17 with 3:21 remaining. There is little drama left in this game. I’m looking at the (declining) traffic on this page and it’s clear that the entire continent agrees. The only question now is whether Baylor covers the current 16-point spread.
  • 11:15 pm ET: Baylor is up 17 (80-63). The moneyline remains off the board, and the total has joined it. The spread is 14.5.
  • 11:12 pm ET: It’s a 14-point game 6:10 to play. The point spread is down to Baylor -11.
  • 10:59 pm ET: Baylor cannot be stopped. They are up 20 with ten minutes to play and already in the bonus. The moneyline is off. The spread is Baylor -15 (-118).
  • 10:48 pm ET: It’s hard to call any shot that happens with 12:54 remaining on the clock a “dagger”, but Adam Flagler’s three just stretched the lead back to 16 and it feels like Gonzaga’s brief push has been completely snuffed out. Oddsmakers agree. Baylor is now -1250. Their implied win probability is 92.59%. Gonzaga is now a ten-point underdog.
  • 10:46 pm ET: Gonzaga is back within single digits (58-49) and their odds are back to +200.
  • 10:37 pm ET: Jalen Suggs just made it an 11-point game (56-45) with an and-one that also led to Flo Thamba picking up his fourth foul. Gonzaga is back to +220.
  • 10:34 pm ET: Baylor started the second half the way it played the entire first, with two made threes. It’s 55-41 with 18 minutes to play. Baylor is  a -400 favorite.
  • 10:11 pm ET: Gonzaga closed the gap to 10 at halftime (47-37). The moneyline has shrunk to -205/+160 in Baylor’s favor. The spread is down to Baylor -4. The game total has ballooned to 168.5 after opening at 159.5.
  • 10:01 pm ET: With the score 38-26 Baylor and 24 minutes left to play, the odds are -265/+200 in favor of the Bears. Baylor is also a 5.5-point favorite ATS. The total has risen to 163.
  • 9:59 pm ET: The Zags have closed the gap to 13 (35-22) with 4:37 remaining in the first half. Their odds have improved to +225. Baylor is now a -295 favorite.
  • 9:55 pm ET: Up 19 points with 27 minutes of game time remaining, Baylor is only a -480 favorite. Gonzaga is +335.
  • 9:52 pm ET: With Baylor up 17 points (31-14) with 8:15 remaining, the first-half spread is Baylor -14. The first-half total is right where it started (75.5).
  • 9:46 pm ET: Baylor leads 29-12 and is 5-5 from beyond the arc. They are -480 favorite, which has an 82.76% implied win probability.
  • 9:40 pm ET: Now leading 23-8, Baylor has skyrocketed to -345. Gonzaga, facing its biggest deficit of the season, is a +255 underdog to climb out of this 15-point hole. The total is now 160.5, slightly shaded to the under.
  • 9:33 pm ET: It’s complete domination early. Baylor leads 16-4. They are 7 of 12 from the floor and have made more field goals than Gonzaga has attempted (1 of 5). Baylor is now a -152 moneyline favorite and a 2.5-point ATS favorite.
  • 9:29 pm ET: With 15:30 left in the first half, Baylor is up 11-1. They look significantly more athletic that Gonzaga, tracking down four offensive rebounds in the first 4.5 minutes.
  • 9:27 pm ET: Baylor is still pitching a shutout (9-0) and Jalen Suggs has two quick fouls for the Zags. Baylor is now a -121 favorite.
  • 9:25 pm ET: Up 7-0, Baylor is still a +106 underdog in the full-game odds.
  • 9:24 pm ET: Off to a 4-0 start, Baylor is now a -132 moneyline favorite to win the first half.
  • 9:22 pm ET: The first-half spread closed at Gonzaga -2.5 with the total at 75.5.
  • 9:21 pm ET: The  spread closed at 4.5 (-110 both ways). The moneyline stayed at +163/-200, where it had been all day. The total remained at 159.5 after opening at 160.
  • 8:30 pm ET: Stay tuned.


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