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Baylor Three-Point Road Underdogs at Texas Tech; Bears Take Ten-Game Win Streak Into Lubbock

Texas Tech Red Raiders mascot in a photo.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a short favorite at home against Baylor on Tuesday, Jan. 7th. Photo by Texas Tech University (Wikimedia).
  • Baylor visits Texas Teach on Tuesday, Jan. 7th
  • The Bears enter on a 10-game winning streak, while Texas Tech has won 15 straight at home
  • The over is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings in Lubbock between the teams

Big 12 play has gotten underway and on Tuesday night (9:00 PM ET) we’ll have one of the biggest conference games of the New Year. No. 4 Baylor (11-1, 1-0 away) puts its 10-game winning streak on the line at No. 22 Texas Tech (10-3, 8-0 at home) when the two clash at the United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas.

Baylor has lost just once this season but this will be their first true road game. Listed as underdogs in this spot, can they win or at least cover the spread tonight?

Baylor Bears vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Baylor Bears +3.5 (-105) +150 Over 130.0 (-115)
Texas Tech Red Raiders -3.5 (-115) -170 Under 130.0 (-105)

Odds taken Jan 7; the spread opened as Texas Tech -3.

Both Teams On A Roll

The Big 12 is loaded with quality teams this year with four teams in the Top 25 and two in the Top 5 (#3 Kansas and #4 Baylor).

Baylor has won 10 in a row and started conference play with a confident 59-44 home win over Texas. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has won five straight and crushed Oklahoma State 85-50 in their first Big 12 game of the season.

Both teams are getting the job done at the defensive end of the court. Texas’ 44-point output against Baylor was the Longhorns’ lowest in a game in the Shaka Smart era.

As for Texas Tech, defense has been its calling card under Chris Beard and they’re again among the leaders. They’re currently No. 13 in the KenPom defensive ratings.

Home-Court Advantage Looms Large

Baylor has played a number of neutral-site games this season but Tuesday will be the Bears’ first true road game of the season. That figures to be a big hurdle as the United Supermarkets Arena has become one of the tougher places to play in the Big 12 over the last couple of seasons. Texas Tech has won 15 straight games at home.

The challenge here is that the Red Raiders haven’t been as good against the spread in those contests. They’ve actually won 36 of their last 38 at home but are just 18-18-2 in that span. They’ve won five straight home games where the total is 120 to 129.5 – as it is on Tuesday – but are just 2-3 ATS in those games.

With a 3.5-point spread in what is expected to be a tight contest, there’s enough of an opening for Texas Tech to win and protect its home court but still fail to cover.

What’s The Best Bet?

This is a matchup of two of the top teams in terms of the 2020 NCAA Tournament odds as both teams are inside of 30/1 to win March Madness. The jury still seems to be out on Texas Tech but a win here and a win at West Virginia later in the week will elevate them to the 25/1 or 20/1 range and cement them as a championship contender again.

As for Baylor, they’ve been impressive with three wins over Top 25 opponents, landing themselves as the No. 10 team in the KenPom ratings as well as Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. That makes the side tricky to pick, so I’m going to avoid betting this one ATS and look at the over.

Seven of Texas Tech’s 11 games have gone over the number, including five of their seven home games. Baylor has only been a dog once this season and the game went over. In their last 34 as a dog, 20 have also gone over, and 21 of 30 when they’ve been a road dog of three or fewer (remember this line opened at -3 and is still there at a couple of shops).

You can still find the total shy of 130 – in the 129 or 129.5 range – at a number of places, although it’s creeping up. I like the over in this game.

Pick: Over 130 

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