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Final Four Odds – See Odds for Every Team in March Madness to Reach 2023 Final Four

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Basketball

Mar 12, 2023 · 5:16 PM PDT

Brandon Miller wins MVP of SEC Tournament
Alabama forward Brandon Miller (24) gets the tournament MVP trophy from SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey after winning the championship SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament game over Texas A&M at Bridgestone Arena Sunday, March 12, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn. Sec Basketball Alabama Vs Texas A M
  • The Alabama Crimson Tide are the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and favored to win the South Region
  • Kansas is the only top seed not favored to win their region, with UCLA favored in the West
  • Read below for the odds of every team in the NCAA Tournament to win their region and our best bets

Dance partners have been selected, and the March Madness bracket is now set.

Selection Sunday has slotted in the 36 at-large bids, to go along with the automatic berths from Conference Tournament champions to make up the 68-team field.

The top overall seed is the Alabama Crimson Tide, though their odds to win NCAA Tournament take a back seat to the Houston Cougars, who check in with +550 odds, an implied probability of 15.38% to cut down the nets in Houston.

Let’s run down the odds for each team by region, and who we think could emerge to make the Final Four.

Odds to Win South Region

Team (Seed) Odds
Alabama (1) +180
Arizona (2) +360
Baylor (3) +600
San Diego State (5) +650
Creighton (6) +850
Utah State (10) +1300
West Virginia (9) +1800
Virginia (4) +2000
Maryland (8) +3500
Missouri (7) +7500
Furman (13) +10000
NC State (11) +14000
Charleston (12) +15000
UC Santa Barbara (14) +25000
Princeton (15) +50000
Texas A&M – CC / SE Missouri State (16) +100000 / +100000

Odds as of Mar 12 at DraftKings Sportsbook.


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NCAA South Region Analysis

The Crimson Tide’s season was not derailed by a fatal shooting on January 15, which involved star freshman Brandon Miller. With no criminal charges, Alabama gets onto the business of basketball.

The SEC regular season and tourney champs are rank third overall in KenPom, and rank sixth overall in scoring, putting up 82.8 points per game. Two very good top seeds could challenge them.

The 2-seed Arizona Wildcats (+360), captured the Pac-12 Tournament title for a second year in a row, beating the UCLA Bruins. The Wildcats are 10th overall in KenPom, and rank fourth in offensive efficiency. Strengths would collide in a regional final with the Crimson Tide, who are third overall in defensive efficiency.

The Baylor Bears (+600) got bounced in the quarterfinal of the Big 12 Tournament, but they’re battle tested. They own the 3rd-best strength of schedule, according to KenPom, and can go toe-to-toe with any of the heavy hitters.

One team being given a ton of betting respect are the Utah State Aggies, who are seeded 10th but come in with +1300 odds to win the South. That’s what happens when you’re a top-30 team in scoring (79.1 points), and are one of four schools to shoot better than 40% for the year from three-point range.

Pick: Alabama (+180)

Odds to Win East Region

Team (Seed) Odds
Purdue (1) +180
Marquette (2) +350
Tennessee (4) +400
Kansas State (3) +700
Duke (5) +1200
Kentucky (6) +1500
Michigan State (7) +2200
Memphis (8) +2800
Florida Atlantic (9) +3500
USC (10) +4000
Providence (11) +6000
Oral Roberts (12) +6500
Louisiana (13) +10000
Vermont (15) +25000
Montana State (14) +40000
Texas Southern / Farleigh Dickinson (16) +50000 / +50000

NCAA East Region Analysis

It’s been a great season for Purdue, and they have the runaway winner in the 2023 Wooden Award odds for the nation’s best player in Zach Edey.

History is not on their side, though. As a no. 1 seed, the Boilermakers have yet to make the Final Four in their school history, with a trip to the Elite Eight the furthest they’ve gone.

Duke (+1200) is fresh off an ACC Championship, but they’ll be in tough in the opener against Oral Roberts, a team that can absolutely fill it up as the third-highest scoring team in the nation, pumping in 84.2 points per game.

Marquette (+350) ripped through the Big East and posted a 28-6 record overall. Their strength is in scoring, averaging 81 points per game (14th).

Don’t sleep on 4th-seeded Tennessee, who may have finished in a tie for fourth in the SEC, but hold the fifth overall rating at KenPom, powered by a defensive efficiency score second to only UCLA, allowing 57.5 points per game (3rd).

Pick: Tennessee (+400)

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Odds to Win Midwest Region

Team (Seed) Odds
Houston (1) +150
Texas (2) +300
Xavier (3) +700
Indiana (4) +1200
Iowa State (6) +1000
Miami (5) +1400
Auburn (9) +1500
Texas A&M (7) +1800
Iowa (8) +2800
Penn State (10) +3500
Drake (12) +4500
Kent State (13) +5000
Mississippi State  / Pittsburgh (11) +6000 / +6000
Kennesaw State (14) +20000
Colgate (15) +25000
Northern Kentucky (16) +50000

NCAA Midwest Region Analysis

Despite dropping the American Athletic Tournament title game to Memphis, Houston is going to be a load when you check their games in the college basketball odds.

The top-rated team in KenPom, they bring the 2nd-best scoring defense to the table, surrendering just 56.5 points per game. They also put up 76 points per game (77th), while ranking 49th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency mark.

Can the Longhorns compete? They beat Kansas in both the Big 12 regular season finale, and conference tournament. It’s a tricky opening round match vs 15-seed Colgate, who are lights-out from distance, leading the NCAA in 3-point shooting at 40.9%.

One player to watch is Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis,  who averaged 20.5 points and 11 rebounds per game for 4th-seeded Indiana (+1200).

Another dark horse lurking is Xavier, who have the 9th-best offensive efficiency rating at KenPom. They finished second in the Big East, holding signature conference wins over UConn, Creighton, and Marquette.

Pick: Houston (+150)

Odds to Win West Region

Team (Seed) Odds
UCLA (2) +275
Kansas (1) +400
UConn (4) +400
Gonzaga (3) +425
Saint Mary’s (5) +1200
Arkansas (8) +1400
TCU (6) +1800
Boise State (10) +2200
Northwestern (7) +4000
Illinois (9) +4000
VCU (12) +5000
Arizona St / Nevada (11) +7000 / +6000
Iona (13) +7000
Grand Canyon (14) +10000
Howard (16) +30000
UNC Asheville (15) +40000

NCAA West Region Analysis

Was it just a bad matchup, or has Kansas just been ready for the NCAA Tournament long before anyone else? The Jayhawks got clubbed in the Big 12 Tournament final by 20 to the Texas Longhorns, though they’d known they were locked into a top seed for quite some time.

The Jayhawks have the lowest KenPom rating of the top seeds, though they’re still inside the top 10 overall. They’re the only 1-seed not favored to win their region, but it’s more a byproduct of the level of competition in the West than anything else.

UCLA (+275) is the West’s betting favorite, and the second highest-ranked team in the NCAA’s according the KenPom. They’re powered by the top defensive efficiency in the nation, allowing 60.1 points per game (6th), holding teams to an effective field goal mark of 46.8% (27th).

And just below the Bruins are the third-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs (+425), who rank eighth overall in KenPom, and boast the best offensive efficiency in college hoops, on the strength of the top-scoring offense in the NCAA at 87.5 points per game.

If there’s a dark horse to watch out for, beware the 12-seed VCU Rams, who won the A10 Tournament and enter March Madness having won nine straight. That could mean bad news for the St Mary’s Gaels in Round 1, in a battle of defensive minded clubs. St Mary’s is ninth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, with VCU ranking 17th.

Pick: UCLA (+275)


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