- Kennesaw State is a 3.5-point favorite over Jacksonville on Monday
- Jacksonville is 7-0, 5-2 ATS, in the last seven in the series
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
Kennesaw State (8-9, 3-1 Atlantic Sun) is a 3.5-point home favorite over Jacksonville in an Atlantic Sun Conference game at 5 pm ET Monday. Kennesaw had a four-game winning streak broken in a 77-73 road loss to Lipscomb its last time out.
Jacksonville (11-6, 3-2 Atlantic Sun) was picked to finish 10th in a preseason poll of league coaches. Kennesaw State was picked to finish 11th.
Jacksonville vs Kennesaw State Odds
|Jacksonville Dolphins||+140||+3.5 (-110)||Over 126.5 (-110)|
|Kennesaw State Owls||-165||-3.5 (-110)||Under 126.5 (-110)|
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Jan. 23.
Kennesaw State is a 3.5-point home favorite over Jacksonville, with the total set at 126.5, the lowest it has been in a Kennesaw State game this season. At -165 on the moneyline, Kennesaw State has a 62.3% implied win probability. The Dolphins are +140 on the moneyline, which translates into a 41.7% implied win probability.
Predictably, neither team factors into the NCAA Tournament odds. As a conference, the Atlantic Sun is 8-40 in March Madness history and best remembered for Florida Gulf Coast’s 2013 Cinderella run to the Sweet 16.
Kennesaw State Recent Results
Kennesaw State had a four-game winning streak broken, its longest in four seasons, in a 77-73 loss at Lipscomb on Saturday, in the last leg of a three-game road trip to begin the Atlantic Sun league season.
North Carolina Central transfer guard 5’11 Jamir Moultrie, one of six Owls averaging at least eight points per game, had 20 points off the bench against Lipscomb, all in the second half. Sophomore guard 6’2 Chris Youngblood leads the team in scoring (13.2) and rebounding (5.5).
— Kennesaw State MBB (@KSUOWLSMBB) January 22, 2022
The Owls’ record reflects their aggressive non-conference schedule, which included road games at No. 15 Iowa State, Creighton, Wake Forest, Wofford, and Nebraska plus a home game against Belmont.
All were losses, although they played Iowa State within nine points and Creighton within seven on a season-opening trip to the Midwest. KenPom rated it the 29th-most difficult non-conference schedule in Division I.
The Owls have limited ASUN opponents to 34.6 percent shooting from the floor even after Lipscomb shot 51.0.
— College Insider Inc. (@collegeinsider) January 17, 2022
Jacksonville vs Kennesaw State H2H Results
Jacksonville has won the last seven games in the series, going 5-2 ATS, and has won and covered the last four at Kennesaw State. The Dolphins swept the series in back-to-back games Jan. 1-2 last season, when both were played in Georgia in a Covid-affected schedule.
The Dolphins won the first game 62-57 as a 1-point underdog and won the next night 72-66 as a 3-point dog. Five of the last seven have gone under the total, although three of the last four at Kennesaw have gone over the total that has hovered in the 130 range.
The Kevion Nolan Effect
Jacksonville guard 6’2 Kevion Nolan dominated the two games against Kennesaw State last season, scoring 55 points on 21 of 34 shooting from the field (6 of 14 from distance) in the back-to-back games Jan. 1-2.
The Owls return four starters and the same starting backcourt from those games, although Moultrie plays about 15 minutes a game. Murray State transfer 6’8 Desmond Robinson (8.2 points, 4.8 rebounds) is the lone new starter.
— Jacksonville Men’s Basketball 🏀 (@JAX_MBB) January 9, 2022
Nolan, a preseason all-Sun pick. had 25 points and hit a deep 3-pointer to beat Florida Gulf Coast 69-66 in the ASUN opener at home Jan. 8. He suffered a knee injury that limited him to nine games in 2020-21 and missed five of the first six this season.
Jacksonville is 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in its last six and is 10-4 ATS this season, best in the ASUN. The Dolphins are 6-3 ATS on the road.
Kennesaw State is 4-1 in its last five straight up, 3-1-1 ATS. 3-1 ATS at home.
Dolphins Look to Rebound
After a blowout by league-favorite Liberty, Jacksonville lost its second straight, 76-73 in overtime, at Bellarmine the last time out Saturday. Nolan’s three gave the Dolphins a 73-70 lead with 36 seconds before Dylan Penn’s four-point play on the next possession was the difference.
— ASUN Men's Basketball🏀 (@ASUN_MBB) January 23, 2022
Nolan (13.1 points, 3.4 assists) is the only Dolphin scoring in double figures for a balanced group that has five others averaging between 8.1 and 9.9 points. Jacksonville has a plus-6.7 rebound margin, 25th in Division I.
Jacksonville vs Kennesaw State Prediction
Bucking the series trend is usually not a wise move, especially when the major pieces — Jacksonville’s Kevion Nolan, for example — remain in place. The Dolphins are the underdog play.
The pick: Jacksonville +3.5 (-110)