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Kentucky vs Florida Odds, Spread and Prediction (Feb. 22)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Feb 21, 2023 · 8:23 PM PST

Kentucky Wildcats forward Oscar Tshiebwe with his hands on his head
Feb 18, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Oscar Tshiebwe (34) reacts during the second half against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
  • Kentucky and Florida meet in a Southeastern Conference game on Wednesday, February 22.
  • Kentucky is a 3-point road favorite against Florida in Gainesville.
  • Read below for Kentucky vs Florida analysis, odds and prediction.

Kentucky (19-9, 9-5 SEC) is a 3-point road favorite over Florida in an SEC game at 7 pm ET Wednesday on ESPN. The Wildcats have won two in a row and four of six, all but clinching their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida (14-13, 7-7 SEC) has lost four if its last five since upsetting Tennessee at home Feb. 1. The Gators’ skid began with a 72-67 loss at Kentucky three days later.

Kentucky vs Florida Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kentucky Wildcats -3 (-110) -150 Over 141 (-110)
Florida Gators +3 (-110) +130 Under 141 (-110)

Kentucky is a 3-point favorite over Florida in a series the Wildcats have dominated for the last five seasons. Kentucky is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the series since the first of two meetings in the 2018-19 season. The Wildcats have won and covered the last four in Gainesville, twice as a four-point favorite and twice as four-point underdog. Four of the last five and seven of the last nine games have gone under the total.



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Kentucky is 12-15 ATS this season, 4-3 on the road. Florida is 13-14 ATS, 7-6 at home. The Wildcats are 17-10 against the “over.” Six of their last seven and and eight of their last 10 have gone over the total. Florida is 12-15 against the over.

Kentucky Back on Track

The Wildcats seem to have extricated themselves from the NCAA Tournament bubble with Quad 1 victories over Mississippi State and Tennessee the last two times out, and their 66-54 victory over the No. 10 Volunteers was particularly impressive. Kentucky completely shut down Tennessee to complete a season sweep behind Oscar Tshiebwe and Cason Wallace, who each had 16 points  The Wildcats led by 20 at halftime despite without pass-first point guard Sahvir Wheeler and off guard C.J. Frederick because of injury.

Although 6’9″ Tshiebwe (15.8 points, 13.0 rebounds) and Purdue’s Zach Edey are the only Division I players who have reached both those scoring and rebounding plateaus, freshman Wallace (11.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists) is considered the Wildcats’ best NBA prospect and is projected to be a mid- to late first round pick in the 2023 NBA draft if he were to leave school. After teaming with Wheeler in the backcourt in the early going, Wallace has started 10 of 11 games at point beginning with the first win at Tennessee, and the Wildcats are 8-3 during that stretch.

Antonio Reeves (13.0 points) and Jacob Toppin (11.8 points, 6.4 rebounds) provide depth, and freshman forward Chris Livingston had a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double the last time out. Kentucky is not a particularly good shooting or good rebounding group. They are shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 69.4 percent from free throw line but compensate with a plus-7.7 rebound margin, eighth in Division I.

Florida Suffers Big Loss

Gators 6’11” center Colin Castleton played a major role in shutting down Tshiebwe in the Gators’ 72-67 loss in Lexington on Feb. 4, but Florida will be without Castleton (16.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocked shots) for the rematch after he suffered a broken bone in his hand in a 89-64 victory over Ole Miss a week ago. The Gators struggled to find a rhythm without him in an 84-65 loss at Arkansas on Saturday, shooting 37.3 percent from the floor and being outrebounded 40-25. In the first meeting, Castleton had 25 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three blocked shots and helped limit Tshiebwe to four points on 2 of 14 shooting.

First-year coach Todd Golden does not much proven depth in the post. Senior reserve 6’11” Jason Jitobah started against the  Razorbacks, and freshman 6’10” Aleks Szymczyk had eight points and six rebounds in his first meaningful playing time of the season. The offense ran through Castleton, but the Gators may choose to play 6’8″ LSU transfer Alan Fudge at the ‘five’ use a perimeter-heavy group led by starters Will Richard (10.3 points) and Kyle Lofton (8.8) and reserves Kowacie Reeves (8.7) and Riley Kugel (8.0). Kugel has started the last eight games and has 62 points in the last four.

Kentucky vs Florida Prediction

Kentucky may finally have found its best self, although the Wildcats’ seven-point loss at Georgia just 11 days ago is a reminder of just how fragile they have been while navigating a season with freshmen Wallace and Livingston in the starting lineup. Wallace was 3 of 21 from the field in the two games before Tennessee the last time out. Castleton’s loss in devastating for Florida. He did it all, including lead, and his absence changes everything.

  • Pick: Kentucky -3 (-110)
  • Season CBK: 41-22 ATS
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