Pitt vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread & Predictions for First Four (March 14)

• Mississippi State is a 1.5-point favorite over Pitt in an NCAA Tournament First Four game on Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio
• Both teams lost by 20-plus points in their conference tournaments
• A look at the Pitt vs Mississippi State odds, predictions, and picks can be found below 

Pittsburgh and Mississippi State meet in an NCAA Tournament First Four game at 9:10 p.m. ET Tuesday at the University of Dayton in Dayton Ohio for the #11 seed in the Midwest Region.

Pitt (22-11, 22-10-1 ATS) has lost three of its last four games, including getting thumped by then-#21 Duke 96-69 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. Mississippi State (21-12, 16-17) lost badly in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, 72-49 to then-#4 Alabama for the Bulldogs’ second loss in their last three games.

This is the first appearance in the NCAAs for Pitt since 2016. Mississippi State is in the Big Dance for the first time since 2019.

TruTV will broadcast the game.

Pitt vs Mississippi State Odds

Mississippi State is favored by 1.5 points and is a -125 pick on the moneyline in the college basketball odds giving it an implied win probability of 55.56%. The winner of this game advances to play #6 seed Iowa State on Friday in Greensboro, N.C., in the March Madness bracket.

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Pitt Looks to Bounce Back

Pitt fell behind 12-0 to Duke and allowed the Blue Devils to score at will in the ACC quarters.

Duke shot 62.1% (36 of 58) overall and 11 of 26 (42.3%) on three-pointers as it had season highs in points and field goal percentage. The Blue Devils’ 27 assists set an ACC Tournament record.

Pitt got more points from its bench (41) than starters (28). Senior guard Nike Sibande led the Panthers with 17 points and seven rebounds and freshman forward Guillermo Diaz Graham added 14 points and eight boards as both shined in reserve roles.

Brought the spark every night

𝐒𝐢𝐱𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫@sibande_nike pic.twitter.com/h8fM1opwCZ

— Pitt Basketball (@Pitt_MBB) March 6, 2023

Senior guard Jamarius Burton finished with 13 points and three assists. At 15.6 points a game, Burton is tied with junior forward Blake Hinson for the team scoring lead.

Burton is also pulling down 4.8 points and dishing 4.4 assists a game. Hinson, a transfer from Ole Miss, has a 6.2 rebounding average.

Hinson managed just five points against Duke on 2-of-6 shooting.

Two other transfers – senior guards Nelly Cummings (11.0, Colgate) and Greg Elliott (10.4, Marquette) – are also scoring in double figures. Cummings is fourth in the ACC in assists with 4.8 per game.

Pitt shoots 76.1% from the foul line, ranking 35^th in the nation.

Mississippi State Also Needs Bounce Back

Mississippi State was bounced from the SEC quarters by Alabama in much the same fashion as Pitt. The Bulldogs fell behind 7-0 and never recovered.

The slow-paced Mississippi State offense was shut down by the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs made just 18 of their 58 field goal attempts for 31.0% and shot a paltry 7.7% (1 of 13) from distance.

Mississippi State has not been proficient on that end of the floor all season. It ranks 301^st in field goal percentage (42.3), 321^st in scoring (65.9), 346th in free throw shooting (64.7%) and 363^rd in three-point percentage (26.6%).

Senior forward Tolu Smith was a bright spot against Alabama with 17 points and 11 rebounds. It was his third straight double-double and 12^th of the season.

Senior guard Dashawn Davis added 13 points.

Smith is averaging 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and his 57.6 field percentage tops the SEC. He is second in the conference in boards.

Tolu Smith is an all-time great in Mississippi State history. 28 points and 12 boards in a must-win game.

What a performance.

pic.twitter.com/Ai6kV0geLu

— Tru Maroon Nation (@TruMaroonNation) March 9, 2023

Smith is the only Mississippi State player scoring in double digits. Junior guard Shakeel Moore is second at 9.6 points per game.

Strong defense offsets Mississippi State’s sluggish offense. In Division I, the Bulldogs rank ninth in field goal percentage allowed (39.4), 11^th in points given up (61.0) and 35^th in three-point defense (30.8%).

Pitt vs Mississippi State Prediction

The schools last met in the 2001 NIT with Mississippi State notching a 66-61 road win.

Early round games in the NCAA Tournament are rarely masterpieces as most teams have jitters. Look for Mississippi State’s defense to make the difference.

Pick: Mississippi State -1.5 (-110)

Season record: 32-28 (+1.3 units) ATS, 4-10 (-5.5 units) ML