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Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s Odds, Lines, and Spread (Jan. 20)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Basketball

Jan 20, 2022 · 3:55 AM PST

Santa Clara forward Keshawn Justice backing down a defender
Santa Clara forward Keshawn Justice (14) looks to dribble around Gonzaga guard Matthew Lang, left, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • The Saint Mary’s Gaels are 9-point home favorites over the Santa Clara Broncos in an NCAA men’s basketball game slated for Thursday, January 20
  • Santa Clara has won outright each of the last two visits to face the Gaels
  • Saint Mary’s has won nine of the last 11 meetings between the two schools

Both the Saint Mary’s Gaels and the Santa Clara Broncos come into their clash against each other on fairly solid rolls.

The Gaels have won three of four. Their only loss in that span was to perennial WCC power Brigham Young. Meanwhile, the Broncos are winners of four of their past five games. Their lone loss was to national power Gonzaga.

In this game, the oddsmakers are opting to ride with the home side. It’s the Gaels who are set as 9-point home favorites. Saint Mary’s is 4-1 against the spread over the past five games.

Tipoff for Thursday’s game at McKeon Pavilion is set for 9pm ET. The CBS Sports Network is carrying the broadcast.

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Santa Clara Broncos +350 +9 (-106) O 138.5 (-110)
Saint Mary’s Gaels -465 -9 (-114) U 138.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 20th at FanDuel Sportsbook.

At a moneyline of +350, the Broncos are given an implied probability of victory of just 22.22%. As the -465 chalk, the Gaels show an IP of winning that registers at 82.30%.

When it comes to the total for this game, the likely outcome appears to be coming from totally different directions. Santa Clara has gone over in four of the past five games. Saint Mary’s has gone over in three of the past four games and four of the last six. However, it’s worth noting that the Gaels’ six games prior to that stretch all went under. As well, the total has gone under in four of the past five games between the two schools.

Saint Mary’s is the only of the two teams that currently has odds to reach the Final Four or win the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are at +6250 in the Final Four odds and +18000 in the NCAA Tournament title odds.

The Perennial Struggle

At one end of the court, this contest should provide the time-honored battle of the irresistible force vs the immovable object. At the other end, though, it will look more like the movable object facing the resistible force.

The Broncos are 60th in NCAA in scoring offense averaging 77.3 points per game. Santa Clara even managed to put up 83 points in the loss to #2 Gonzaga. However, the Gaels rank 10th in the nation in scoring defense. Saint Mary’s is holding opponents to 58.0 ppg.

When they have the ball, though, the Gaels’ offense is known for being both slow and bad. Saint Mary’s is scoring 67.8 ppg. That rates 272nd in the nation. On the other hand, Santa Clara’s defense isn’t about getting stops. The Broncos rank 230th in the NCAA in scoring defense, coughing up 70.8 ppg. Gonzaga lit them up for 115 points.

Santa Clara Shorthanded

The Broncos will be without junior center Jaden Bediako, who is dealing with a foot injury. He was a starter in six of nine games he’s played this season.

He’s second on the team with 0.6 blocks per game while playing 17.6 minutes a night. At 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, there’s no other player on the Santa Clara roster capable of bringing Bediako’s combination of size and athleticism to the floor.

Broncos vs Gaels Prediction

Senior center/forward Matthias Tass (12.4 ppg), senior guard  Logan Johnson (10.7 ppg) and graduate student guard Tommy Kuhse (10.1 ppg) pace the offense for Saint Mary’s. Junior guard Jalen Williams (18.9 ppg), senior forward Keshawn Justice (14.9 ppg), senior forward Josip Vrankic (14.0) and senior guard PJ Pipes (10.5 ppg) are the key scorers for Santa Clara.

Santa Clara’s defense also ranks #21 in the nation in field goal percentage (48.40) and #31 in 3-point field goal percentage (37.72). The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Gaels. And they’ve won each of their last two visits to Saint Mary’s.

Saint Mary’s is a solid 9-0 straight up at home this season. The Gaels have covered in seven of nine home games. They’re also 5-2 ATS as a favorite of nine or more points.

Pick: Saint Mary’s -9 (-114)

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