Wichita St & West Virginia Still Hanging Around March Madness Futures in Awful Seasons

• Some sportsbooks still have perennial Final Four threats Wichita State and West Virginia at relatively short odds
• The Shockers and Mountaineers are both mired in uncharacteristically bad seasons
• Last year’s Cinderella team, Loyola-Chicago, fits the same bill: decent odds, bad team

The Wichita State Shockers have emerged as a fixture at the NCAA Tournament in recent years, qualifying in each of the past seven years, including a memorable trip to the Final Four in 2013. But after opening the current campaign with an 8-10 record, including a dismal 1-5 record in AAC play, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the Shockers’ position in the national championship futures, where they sit at +11000.

They are far from the only team with unjustifiably short odds, though. One of Wichita State’s neighbors at +11000 is Bob Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers (9-10), who are dead-last in the Big 12.

2019 March Madness Championship Odds

Shockers Shaky in AAC

Following a shaky 4-4 start, the Shockers looked to have turned the corner with a trio of wins over Jacksonville State, Southern Miss, and Oral Roberts. But the squad has since seen the wheels come off with losses in six of seven, capped by a forgettable performance in Tuesday’s 54-41 loss to South Florida as 2.5-point road underdogs.

The lowly 41-point output was the Shockers’ worst offensive performance in over two decades.

Shockers tie for fifth-fewest points in program history in loss at South Florida https://t.co/Dpz1CJ49PS

— Wichita Eagle Sports (@WichitaEagleSpt) January 23, 2019

Now mired in 11th place in the AAC standings, Gregg Marshall’s team has a mountain to climb to return to respectability. Wichita State still has 12 conference games remaining on their schedule, but will need a repeat of the 7-1 run late last season to have any chance of booking a return trip to the Big Dance.

They are currently ranked 137th at KenPom and are projected to finish 14-16. The lowest-ranked KenPom team to receive an at-large big last year was St. Bonaventure (#68). It’s AAC tournament title or bust for Marshall and company. And with Houston (#20), Cincinnati (#27), and UCF (#46) all in KenPom’s top 50, bust is the heavy favorite.

The Shockers are not the only squad whose continued presence on the national championship odds has raised eyebrows …

Mountaineers Unlikely to Make Third Straight Sweet 16 Appearance

The West Virginia Mountaineers remain at +11000 despite tumbling into the basement in the Big 12 standings with a 1-6 conference record.

The Mountaineers have advanced to the Sweet 16 in three of the past four years, and opened the current campaign with wins in eight of their first 12 contests, but have been simply outclassed since the start of conference play.

WVU basketball: Mountaineers turn their attention to No. 1 Tennessee https://t.co/Pwb7wUlE1d

— Tom Bragg (@TomBraggSports) January 25, 2019

WVU managed to cover in consecutive losses to Texas Tech, Texas, and Kansas State, but have been blown out in three of the past four, including Monday’s 85-73 loss to Baylor while favored by 2.5 points. That marked squad’s fifth outright loss this season as a betting favorite. They will be pegged as a double-digit underdog for the first time in almost five years when they visit top-ranked Tennessee on Saturday.

Like Wichita State, the advanced metrics don’t look any better for West Virginia than their record. They currently sit 92nd at KenPom and are projected to finish 12-19 overall, 4-14 in conference play.

They have no hope of an at-large big to the tournament.

If, make that when, the Mountaineers enter the Big 12 tournament as a bottom-four seed, they will need to string together four wins to claim the conference’s auto-bid.

When it comes to betting on which team will win March Madness, picking teams that actually have a fighting chance of being in the bracket is a great first step.

Which Teams are Better Value?

The latest bracket from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has a quintet of teams that currently have long national title odds among the top-five seeds. They are …

Barring devastating injuries or completely unforeseeable regression, those five teams are all going to get at-large bids (if they don’t win their conferences). These are quality basketball teams, as evidenced by their status at KenPom, unlike Wichita State and West Virginia.

Louisville, in particular, stands out. The 14-5 Cardinals have a top-15 offense, top-50 defense, and a first-year coach (Chris Mack) who previously guided Xavier to three Sweet 16s and one Elite 8. They already own wins over two top-10 KenPom teams (Michigan State, #3; UNC, #7), to boot.