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Yale vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds & Player Props to Bet (March. 24)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Updated Mar 24, 2024 · 1:04 PM PDT

Mar 22, 2024; Spokane, WA, USA; Yale Bulldogs guard John Poulakidas (4) celebrates with forward Danny Wolf (1) after a game against the Auburn Tigers in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • We’ve made our Yale vs San Diego State prediction for Sunday March Madness
  • The SDSU vs Yale odds favor the Aztecs by 5.5 points in Spokane, Washington
  • Read on for Yale vs San Diego State prediction, odds and player props to bet

No. 13 seed Yale will try to pull off another stunning upset when it faces No. 5 seed San Diego State in the second round of 2024 March Madness on Sunday night. Tipoff is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena in Spokane, Washington.

The Aztecs are 5.5-point favorites in the latest San Diego State vs. Yale odds, with the over/under offered at 128.5. Player props favor a strong showing from SDSU star forward Jaedon LeDee.

Let’s delve into our Yale vs San Diego State prediction, as we break down the odds and player props available.

San Diego State vs Yale Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Yale +5.5 (-110) +200 Over 128.5 (-110)
San Diego St -5.5 (-110) -250 Under 128.5 (-110)

In the Yale vs SDSU odds, the Aztecs are -250 moneyline favorites against the Bulldogs, giving them an implied win probability of 71%. The over/under is now listed at 128.5 after opening at 127.5.

 

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Odds as of March 23, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to bet on Yale vs San Diego State. If you already have an MGM account, browse the top March Madness sportsbook apps.

Yale Writing Cinderella Story

Yale advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament by upsetting fourth-seeded Auburn on Friday afternoon. John Poulakidas made six 3-pointers and scored 28 points, while Samson Aletan made a key blocked shot in the final seconds to power the team to a 78-76 upset victory.

Oddsmakers have undervalued the Bulldogs recently, as the team has covered the spread in 14 of its past 19 games. If you bet $100 on Yale to cover every game during that span, you’d be up around $1500. Can they reward their bettors once again on Sunday?

Yale has had a fairly strong offense this season, averaging 75 points per game, which places them 128th in the nation. The Bulldogs are shooting an impressive 47% from the field, good for 56th nationally. On defense, Yale only gives up 67 points per contest, which ranks 39th.

While Yale’s offensive and defensive metrics look good on paper, it’s important to remember they are members of the Ivy League. Per KenPom’s advanced stats, Yale falls outside the top 80 in both adjusted offensive and defensive effeciency.

Aztecs Boast Elite Defense

San Diego State punched their ticket to the round of 32 with a tight 69-65 victory over UAB in East Region first-round play. Jaedon LeDee recorded 32 points and eight rebounds, while Lamont Butler added 15 points and four steals.

LeDee has been on fire of late, recording at least 22 points in four straight games, including a 34-point, 16-rebound double-double against UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament last week. The experienced 24-year-old is a +7000 longshot in the 2024 Wooded Award odds.

The Aztecs boast one of the best defenses in college basketball. They allow opponents to average only 67 points per game (35th) and shoot 40% from the field. Another key part of this success is their turnover efficiency, exemplified by their 17-5 edge in points off turnovers last game.

Despite their stellar defense, the Aztecs have only managed to cover the spread once in their past seven games. While LeDee is an incredible talent, the team’s overall offense is lackluster. SDSU ranks 60th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency despite the model ranking the team 20th overall.

Yale vs San Diego State Player Props

College basketball player props are already available for the Yale vs San Diego State showdown, with oddsmakers forecasting Jaedon LeDee to have a big game. LeDee is the only player in this game close to the 20-point mark, as his player prop is set at 21.5 points.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
August Mahoney 9.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 2.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124) OFF 1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130)
Bez Mbeng 7.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 0.5 (Ov -238 | Un +180)
Danny Wolf 13.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 9.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) OFF 0.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Darrion Trammell 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 1.5 (Ov +150 | Un -195)
Jaedon LeDee 21.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 7.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) OFF 0.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166)
John Poulakidas 13.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 3.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140) OFF 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166)
Lamont Butler 9.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) 2.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 0.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124)
Matt Knowling 10.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145) 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) OFF
Micah Parrish 8.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 4.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145) OFF 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140)

Yale vs San Diego State player props odds as of March. 23, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

LeDee is the catalyst of this San Diego State offense, and he lands a favorable matchup Sunday. The 6’9″ forward does the majority of his work inside the arc, and Yale allowed Auburn to shoot 20 of 33 (60.6%) from two-point range. Furthermore, the Bulldogs gave the Tigers 22 trips to the free-throw line.

LeDee’s player prop of 21.5 is right in line with his season average (21.4), but his output increases to over 22 points in games in which he plays more than 30 minutes. Considering LeDee is averaging around 35 minutes over his past five contests, he should see enough usage to cash the over on his player prop Sunday.

Yale vs San Diego State Prediction

San Diego State hasn’t been a profitable college basketball team lately, but we like this matchup for the Aztecs. The Bulldogs went 9 of 20 from deep (45.0%) against Auburn yet only shoot at a 34.9% clip on the year. They now must face an SDSU three-point defense that ranks 27th nationally.

There’s a chance for a letdown performance from Yale following two consecutive emotional victories over Brown and Auburn. They may get frustrated against an elite SDSU defense that held Gonzgzaga to 74 points and St. Mairy’s to 54 points in pivotal non-conference wins this year.

SDSU has played the 21st hardest schedule this year per KenPom, while Yale has played the 118th toughest. We project that SDSU’s postseason experience will pay dividends as the game rolls on. Look for the Aztecs to grind out a low-scoring win on the shoulders of another strong Jaedon LeDee performance.

Yale vs SDSU Picks:

  • San Diego State -5.5 (-110)
  • Jaedon LeDee Over 21.5 Points (-130)

 

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