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Akron vs Buffalo Odds, Spread and Prediction

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Nov 29, 2022 · 9:02 AM PST

Jeff Undercuffler Jr fires a pass
Akron quarterback Jeff Undercuffler throws a first-half pass against visiting Central Michigan, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022. Uacmufb 4
  • Buffalo is laying 11.5 points at home in the Akron vs Buffalo odds on Friday afternoon in MAC action
  • The Bulls need a victory to become Bowl eligible
  • The latest available Akron vs Buffalo odds are listed below, along with analysis and predictions

This weekend’s college football slate gets underway early on Friday, with some matinee MAC action. While most games this weekend will decide a conference champion, the stakes for this contest aren’t quite so high.

However, that’s not to say there’s nothing to play for. Buffalo (5-6, 4-3 MAC) hosts Akron (2-9, 1-6 MAC) needing a win to become Bowl eligible.

Online sportsbooks are bullish on the Bulls’ chances of victory in the college football odds, but bettors are wagering against them at a strong rate in the spread market.

Akron vs Buffalo Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Akron Zips +11.5 (-110) +360 O 55.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bulls -11.5 (-110) -450 U 55.5 (-110)

Odds as of November 29 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Akron vs Buffalo matchup.

Buffalo opened up as a 14.5-point favorite, but were quickly bet down to -11.5. Even at the new number, the Zips are drawing the bulk of the spread action, suggesting this line may come down even more.

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As of Tuesday morning, 52% of the spread bets are on Akron, as is a whopping 72% of the ATS money. That means big money bettors, who typically represent sharp action, are buying the Zips.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET at UB Stadium in Buffalo, NY, with sunny, 46-degree temperatures currently in the forecast.

Buffalo Bulls Betting Analysis

The question now becomes, what are bettors seeing to make them want to fade Buffalo? For starters, the Bulls have dropped three straight. They were pummelled by Ohio in a game they were favored in, but then lost close decisions to Central Michigan and Kent State.

The latter result was also one they were favored in, and one where they blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead. The common theme in all three defeats meanwhile, has been an underwhelming defense.

Buffalo enters play ranked 103rd in defensive efficiency, and 74th in opponent yards per game. They’re especially vulnerable versus the run, yielding 5.3 yards per attempt and 183 rushing yards per game. Their pass defense is stronger, ranking 38th in passing production surrendered, but the Zips will actually be one of the better passing offenses they’ve faced this season.

Offensively, is where they need to dominate. They have a major advantage versus a bad Akron defense. The Zips struggle both against the pass and versus the run, ranking 119th in defensive efficiency out of 131 teams. They surrender over 6 yards play and 413 yards per contest, while allowing opponents to successfully convert 85% of their red zone trips into points.

You won’t find a candidate in the Heisman Trophy odds on this Bulls roster, however, they should be able to pound the rock relentlessly and take advantage of favorable matchups in the passing game.

Akron Zips Betting Analysis

Akron’s record is a bit misleading. Yes, they’re 2-9, but four of their past six losses were one-score games. They’re fresh off their most impressive performance of the season, smashing Northern Illinois by 32 points as a 9.5-point underdog.

The key to their success in that matchup was their passing game. Jeff Undercuffler Jr. threw for 312 yards and three scores in place of the injured DJ Irons, marking his best start of the season. It’s been an up-and-down few seasons for the junior QB after a prolific 2019 year at Albany. He threw for 3,524 yards and 41 TD that season, so his ceiling is definitely high.

Akron will need Undercuffler to be great on Friday if Irons remains out, and he’ll have plenty of opportunity to do so. The Zips throw the ball at the nation’s 10th-highest rate. They average over 285 passing yards per game and feature three quality receivers who’ve all hauled in at least 55 catches.

Given the state of their defense, the Zips will need to post a sizeable point total to cover this spread. If the last two games are any indication, they should be able to do so. They’re averaging 36 points per contest in those two outings, and the Bulls’ defense is certainly gettable.

Akron vs Buffalo Prediction

If judging solely based off recent production, the Zips are clearly the play against the spread. They’ve beaten the number in five of their past eight contests, while Buffalo has failed to cover in three straight.

Akron is trending up, and Undercuffler’s play is a big reason for it. After barely playing in the first nine games of the season, the team has looked as good as it has all year in the last two games with him under center.

Akron vs Buffalo Recent History

Date Away Team Home Team Result
10/23/2021 Buffalo Akron BUF, 45-10
12/12/2020 Akron Buffalo BUF, 56-7
10/19/2019 Buffalo Akron BUF, 21-0
10/13/2018 Akron Buffalo BUF, 24-6
10/28/2017 Buffalo Akron AKR, 21-20

If you were lucky enough to get the Zips when the line opened up pat yourself on the back. At +11.5 it’s still worth a sprinkle, as is over 55.5. Both teams struggle badly on defense, which should set up for a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.

Picks: Akron +11.5 (-110), Over 55.5 (-110)

 

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