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Army vs Navy Picks & Odds; Under is 14-2 in Last 16 Meetings

Army vs Navy at Lincoln Financial Field
Navy is listed as 11-point favorites over Army on Saturday, December 14th. The under has hit in 14 of the last 16 meetings. Photo by Spc. Philip Diab (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Navy will look to reclaim the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy when they play Army on Dec. 14
  • The under has hit in 14 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams
  • Read below for the odds and how to bet on Saturday’s matchup

No. 23 Navy (9-2) is being listed as 11-point favorites over Army (5-7) on Saturday, Dec. 14 at Lincoln Financial Field. The Midshipmen can take home the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy with a victory.

Army has had a disappointing season and missed out on bowl eligibility for the first time in four seasons, while Navy earned a spot in the Liberty Bowl thanks to a stellar bounce back season in Annapolis.

The under has hit in 14 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams, but this matchup could break a few trends.

How should you bet on the Army vs Navy odds?

Army Vs Navy Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
Army +11.0 (-115) +325 O 40.5 (-110)
Navy (#23) -11.0 (-105) -450 U 40.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 11

Two Similar Teams

Both Army and Navy rely heavily on their option rushing attack. The Midshipmen have the best rushing offense in the country, averaging 360.8 yards per game, while the Black Knights are ranked second nationally and averaging 311.7 yards per game.

Army couldn’t stop Hawaii’s offense in Week 14, but they still out-gained the Rainbow Warriors thanks to 411 rushing yards. Army has put up at least 31 points in three straight weeks, while Navy has put up at least 34 points in nine of their 11 games this season.

The strong rushing attack of both teams has led to the over hitting in the majority of their respective games. Navy is 7-4 O/U, while Army is 6-5-1 O/U.

Malcolm Perry an Elite Dual-Threat

Navy senior quarterback Malcolm Perry is having an outstanding season and has rushed for 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns. Perry has also thrown for 1,027 yards and owns an impressive 181.1 passer rating.

The Black Knights may have a quarterback situation as starter Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was injured in the game against Hawaii. With backup already injured, third-stringer Christian Anderson was forced to fill in. Anderson himself was then injured late in the game and freshman Jemel Jones was pressed into action.

It’s unclear if Hopkins Jr will be cleared to play Saturday, so the strong play of Perry this season gives Navy a great advantage at the QB position. Army should still be able to score on the ground considering they have seven different players with over 100 rushing yards.

Head-to-Head History

Army has won three straight games in this series following a 14-game win streak for Navy from 2002-2015. The Black Knights won the 2018 meeting 17-10 thanks to two recovered fumbles in the fourth quarter and two rushing touchdowns from Hopkins Jr.

These two teams typically play very close games, as all five of the last meetings have been decided by seven or fewer points. The under has also hit in 14 of the last 16 meetings, but that trend could change considering Navy is having their best offensive season (scoring-wise) in over 10 years.

Betting Advice

Navy has been the better team this season and should win this game, but it’s no guarantee they cover the spread. These games are always played tightly, and it’s hard to predict if we’ll see a blowout or another tight game.

The best value for this matchup lies with the over. Sportsbooks have caught on to the recent trend of the under hitting and have the set the total quite low given the two team’s offensive success this year.

Both of these teams have elite rush attacks and susceptible defenses that are allowing over 22 points per game. The Black Knights have been scoring recently, and the Midshipmen have only played one game this season that has finished under 50 total points.

Expect Perry to have another big game for Navy, but Army scores enough with their rush attack to help the over hit.

Pick: Over 40.5 (-110)

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