Chase Young’s Heisman Odds Improve to +1400; Can Ohio State DE Challenge Joe Burrow for Trophy?

• Ohio State’s Chase Young is closing the gap on LSU’s Joe Burrow in the Heisman race (sort of)
• Young’s Heisman odds improved to +1400 after Week 13
• Is Young a good bet to steal the trophy away from Burrow, who remains a ludicrously short -3000 favorite?

Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is, to some extent, closing the gap on LSU QB Joe Burrow in the 2019 Heisman race.

Young  was dominant in his return from a two-game suspension on Saturday against Penn State. The Buckeyes DE racked up three sacks against the Nittany Lions to set Ohio State’s single-season sacks record (16.5).

Young’s Heisman odds have improved to +1400. Is the top defensive player in the country a good value bet to steal the Heisman away from Burrow?

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds taken Nov. 27.

Young Returns Against Penn State

Young returned from a two-game suspension for an NCAA violation this Saturday when the Buckeyes hosted Penn State. The edge rusher made a major impact against the Nittany Lions, recording three sacks, nine tackles, four tackles-for-loss, and two forced fumbles to help Ohio State to a 28-17 victory.

Young delivered in the clutch by shutting down two late Penn State drives on fourth down. He’ll need to deliver two more big-time performances against Michigan in Week 14 and then in the Big Ten Championship Game to have a shot at stealing the trophy away from the talented and prolific Burrow. He’ll likely need Burrow to play poorly, as well.

But all Young can do is hold up his end of the bargain, and that part seems likely.

Despite sitting out the past two games, Young currently leads the nation with 16.5 total sacks and 1.83 sacks per game. There’s no denying how dominant Young has been.

Obstacles Facing Young

Young is having a monstrous season, but he does have quite a few factors working against him. Ohio State has both the nation’s top-ranked offense and defense, and there are other players on the team who have played an important role in the team’s dominance.

Dual-threat QB Justin Fields is also building a strong case for the Heisman. The Buckeyes QB is one of the most dynamic runners in college football and has been lethally accurate. He’s thrown 31 TD passes with just one interception and ranks fourth nationally with a 190.3 pass efficiency rating.

Ohio State has four players going to the college football awards show this year:
Chase Young (Bednarik)
Jeff Okudah (Thorpe)
JK Dobbins (Doak Walker)
Justin Fields (Davey O'Brien)

OSU has 4 players considered the best at their position in college football. That's insane.

— Ari Wasserman (@AriWasserman) November 25, 2019

Running back J.K. Dobbins has also been a force on the ground for the Buckeyes and ranks fourth in the country with 1, 446 rushing yards.

Junior defensive back Jeff Okudah has been among the best at his position with 25 tackles and a tackle for loss. As big of an impact as Young has had, his Heisman case is weakened due to other players on the team also having strong cases.

The two missed games are also big obstacles for Young. You have to go back to Florida State’s Charlie Ward in 1993 for the last time a player missed a single game and still won the Heisman. A player missing two games and still winning the trophy is almost unprecedented.

Joe Burrow Too Dominant

If there weren’t so many great quarterbacks this season, Young would have a very realistic chance of being the first primary defensive player to win the Heisman since Charles Woodson did so with Michigan in 1997.

There’s a clear bias towards defensive players when casting Heisman votes, and the dominance of Burrow is going to make it very difficult for Young to steal away the trophy from the Tigers QB. Burrow has separated himself from other elite QB’s such as Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts by having a season for the ages

Joe Burrow has rocked the football landscape as he leads No. 1 LSU toward the @CFBPlayoff — and makes his case to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft https://t.co/Z4XaVNyjZl pic.twitter.com/J5NeVkJqIm

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 26, 2019

Not only has Burrow been impressive every week, but the LSU QB has turned in his best performances against elite teams. Burrow has completed 79.9% of his passes against AP Top-25 teams, throwing for 11 TDs with just two interceptions in wins over Texas, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama.

Burrow’s hyper-short -3000 odds tell you everything you need to know about the chances of someone else winning the 2019 Heisman.

Heisman Analysis After Week 13

Considering how good Burrow has been and the strong play of Young’s Ohio State teammates, it’s going to take two otherworldly performances from Young in the final two weeks to even make this race close.

The bias against defensive players and the two missed games for Young are really going to hurt his Heisman chances. Burrow hasn’t turned in a bad outing this season, and it’s unlikely he stumbles against Texas A&M or Georgia, as great as the latter’s defense is.

The other QBs still on the board – Fields and Hurts – have the better value if you’re willing to bet on Burrow faltering in one of his final two games. Young has a great chance to improve his odds of finishing second in the race, but it’s unlikely he steals the trophy away from Burrow.