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College Football Week 11 ATS Picks: LSU (+6.0) at Alabama Among Best Bets

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Nov 5, 2019 · 2:00 PM PST

Saahdiq Charles, Joe Burrow and Foster Moreau of the LSU Tigers
No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama is one of several marquee matchups in Week 11. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Flickr) [CC License].
  • No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama faceoff in Week 11 (Nov. 9)
  • Elsewhere, Oklahoma looks to rebound from a stunning upset loss against a dangerous Iowa State team
  • Which teams are the best bets against the spread?

After an uneventful week in college football, Week 11 features some marquee matchups with massive playoff implications.

LSU and Alabama faceoff in a battle between the top-two teams, while Penn State and Minnesota look to remain unbeaten in a Big Ten showdown. Elsewhere, Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma aim to keep their CFP Playoff hopes alive against Iowa State.

Which teams are the best bets to cover the spread in Week 11? (All games below take place on Saturday, Nov. 9th.)

LSU vs Alabama Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
LSU (#1) +6.0 (-110) +180 O 65.0 (-110)
Alabama (#2) -6.0 (-110) -220 U 65.0 (-110)

Odds collected Nov. 5

It’s a battle of the top two teams in the nation when No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama faceoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium this week. Both teams have 8-0 records and are coming off bye weeks.

Heisman favorite Joe Burrow is a big reason why I believe LSU will at least cover the spread in this game. He has an 80% completion percentage against Top 25 teams this season and ranks third in the nation with a 204.5 pass efficiency rating.

Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa will be a game-time decision against the Tigers after he injured his ankle against Tennessee in Week 8. Even if he is able to play, he likely won’t be at 100 percent.

Neither of these teams have elite run games, so the matchup will likely be won in the air. LSU has faced the tougher schedule and have demonstrated the ability to perform against elite defensive teams. The Tigers totalled 511 yards against Florida without giving up a sack and put up 508 yards against Auburn.

Alabama’s only win against a ranked team this season was against Texas A&M. Even with the easier schedule, the Crimson Tide are trailing LSU in yards per game by over 30 yards.

Burrow has been too good each week to not feel confident in him and LSU’s dynamic offense getting the job done against a hobbled Tagovailoa or backup QB Mac Jones.

Pick: LSU (+6.0)

Oklahoma vs Iowa State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa State +14.5 (-105) +430 O 67.0 (-110)
Oklahoma (#9) -14.5  (-115) -660 U 67.0 (-110)

The Sooners will be well-rested and eager to rebound from a shocking upset loss in Week 9 to Kansas State. The Wildcats were 23.5-point underdogs in the game and managed to earn a 48-41 upset victory.

Despite the loss, QB Jalen Hurts had a very strong outing for the Sooners. The second-favorite in the Heisman odds threw for 395 yards and a touchdown and ran for 95 yards and three more. He’s a big reason why Oklahoma ranks first in the country in total offense (598.4 yards per game).

Iowa State is coming off an upset loss of their own at the hands of Oklahoma State in Week 9. Freshman QB Spencer Sanders and top RB Chuba Hubbard led the Cowboys to a 34-27 victory. Oklahoma has even more talent in dual-threat QB Hurts, WR CeeDee Lamb and RB’s Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon.

Oklahoma seems to play their best football in the final stretch of the season, as they have won 17 straight November games dating back to 2014. They’ve also dominated Iowa State historically, winning 19 of the last 20 meetings.

The Sooners are fighting for a spot in the CFP and will have extra motivation after losing to Kansas State. The Cyclones don’t have the talent on either side of the ball to matchup with the Sooners and will lose by at least two touchdowns.

Pick: Oklahoma (-14.5)

Penn State vs Minnesota Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Penn State (#5) -7.0 (-110) -270 O 47.0 (-105)
Minnesota (#13) +7.0 (-110) +220 U 47.0 (-110)

The Nittany Lions and Gophers both enter this matchup with perfect 8-0 records, but Penn State has faced the tougher schedule. The Nittany Lions have beat ranked Michigan and Iowa teams, in addition to beating Michigan State on the road.

Minnesota is 8-0 for the first time since 1941, but they’ve had an easy schedule. Their last four victories have come against Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland — teams that have a combined 6-18 record against conference opponents this season. The Golden Gophers were also big favorites over South Dakota State and Georgia Southern, yet only managed close victories.

Penn State brings the No.2 defense in the nation into this game and are allowing just 9.6 points per game. They beat Purdue 35-7 this season, while Minnesota only managed a tight 38-31 victory over the Boilermakers. Penn State is a proven contender this year, while we still don’t really know that this Minnesota team is.

The Nittany Lions likely aren’t double-digit favorites in this game due to not having home-field advantage. Penn State has actually been excellent on the road this season and covered the spread in all three games away from home.

Minnesota relies a lot on their run game, which racked up 321 yards against Maryland in Week 9. I don’t see them being able to generate much against a Penn State rush defense allowing just 68.4 yards per game. Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford is also having an excellent season and threw four TD passes in the rain against Michigan State last time out.

Pick: Penn State (-7.0)

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