- Week 7 of the 2019 College Football season begins on Wednesday, October 9
- Notre Dame and Wisconsin are among favorites with value
- Find my three favorite ATS picks for Week 7
Week 7 of college football gets underway on Wednesday, October 9th with a matchup between Appalachian State at Louisiana.
Saturday is a big day for playoff implications, and that where we’re headed for my three favorite picks this week.
Wisconsin is set for an important Big 10 clash with Michigan State, while Notre Dame looks to keep building momentum against USC. Alabama takes on Texas A&M in an SEC matchup.
Here are my three best ATS picks for Week 7.
Wisconsin vs Michigan State Odds
|Michigan State||+11 (-115)||+325||O 40 (-115)|
|Wisconsin (#8)||-11 (-105)||-450||U 40 (-105)|
*Odds taken 10/09/19
Wisconsin has been one of the best teams ATS this season (4-1), and they play host to an unranked Michigan State team in Week 7. The Spartans have been inconsistent this year and are coming off a 34-10 loss to Ohio State.
Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 745 yards and 12 touchdowns and is currently in the Heisman conversation. QB Jack Coan has been consistently good and ranks 21st in the nation with a 162.3 pass efficiency rating.
The Buckeyes beat the Spartans by over 20 points, and I don’t think the Badgers are that far off from Ohio State. Michigan State gave up a whopping 323 yards on the ground to Ohio State and now have to face arguably the top running back in the country in Jonathan Taylor.
Wisconsin is averaging 43.4 points per game, while also ranking top ten in the nation in total defense. They should cover the spread at home against a inferior opponent that has struggled to put up points against good defenses.
Pick: Wisconsin (-11)
Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds
|Alabama (#1)||-17 (-110)||-850||O 62 (-105)|
|Texas A&M (#24)||+17 (-110)||+525||U 62 (-115)|
Alabama is the top ranked team in the nation and coming off a bye week. QB Tua Tagovailoa is sitting atop the Heisman odds and has thrown a nation-high 23 TD passes without an interception. The Crimson Tide have an elite group of receivers led by senior Jerry Jeudy, while RB Najee Harris is a force on the ground.
Texas A&M also had a bye week in Week 6 after an ugly 31-27 win over Arkansas in Week 5. The Aggies have already lost to Clemson and Auburn this season, and I’m not confident in their ability to rebound from the Razorbacks game against a powerhouse such as Alabama.
The Crimson Tide have won six straight against Texas A&M, and four of the last five victories were by more than 17 points. Alabama is averaging 51.8 point per game, while the Aggies surrendered 28 points to a mediocre Auburn offense in Week 4 and struggled to get past a weak Arkansas team the following week.
Not only are Tagovailoa, Jeudy, and Harris going to take over offensively, but Alabama’s 13th ranked defense should smother the Aggies 46th ranked offense. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 in College Station, and they should have no problem winning and covering the spread on Saturday.
Pick: Alabama (-17)
Notre Dame vs. USC Odds
|USC||+11 (-110)||+315||O 57.5 (-110)|
|Notre Dame (#11)||-11 (-110)||-430||U 57.5 (-110)|
This matchup is a tale of two two teams going in different directions. Notre Dame is 4-1 on the season after blowing out Bowling Green 52-0 in Week 6, while the Trojans have fallen out of the playoff picture with a 3-2 record on the year.
Notre Dame has been really impressive over the past three weeks, covering the 45-point spread against the Falcons, beating a ranked Virginia team and keeping pace with an elite Georgia squad. They are 4-1 ATS this season and have home field advantage against a two-loss USC squad.
Despite the historic rivalry, I don’t see USC playing with much determination in this one. The Trojans lost to Washington 28-14 in Week 5 before getting a bye week in Week 6. They aren’t playing for much outside of keeping coach Clay Helton’s job, while the Fighting Irish are still in the playoff race.
There’s no denying USC’s talent at wide receiver, but the Huskies were able to hold top Trojans WR Michael Pittman JR. to just four catches and 66 yards in Week 5. The Fighting Irish have an even better passing defense that ranks top twenty in the country.
Notre Dame now ranks in the Top 15 nationally in scoring offense (41.0) and scoring defense (14.8), joining Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Georgia in that class.
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) October 6, 2019
Senior QB Ian Book is a big reason why Notre Dame is the play here. He went off for a career-best five TD passes against Bowling Green and is set to matchup against USC’s freshman QB Kedon Slovis.
Slovis has been cleared for contact after suffering a concussion against Utah in Week 4, but there’s no guarantee he’s going to be 100 percent. Book has been a consistent force all season.
Not only have the Fighting Irish been a spread covering machine this season, but they’ve been dominant at Notre Dame Stadium with 14 straight home wins. USC has been inconsistent this year and has only covered the spread once in their last 10 games against non-conference teams. The Fighting Irish have all the momentum and should cover.
Pick: Notre Dame (-11)