East Carolina’s 2019 Win Total Has Risen the Most of All FBS Teams

• ECU’s win total opened at 3.5, but is now 4.5 and 5.0 at online betting sites
• Pirates coach Scottie Montgomery was fired after a 3-9 season in 2018
• Does East Carolina’s over/under deserve to be climbing so rapidly?

East Carolina opened with a 2019 win total of just 3.5, one of the lowest in the nation. But the Pirates have now climbed as high as 5.0 at some sportsbooks, with the odds heavily juiced to the over.

How should you bet on the Pirates, who have posted three consecutive 3-9 seasons but bring in a new head coach and defensive coordinator?

ECU’s 2019 Win Total & Odds

*Odds taken 08/22/19.

First-year head coach Mike Houston and new defensive coordinator Bob Trott bring a winning pedigree from James Madison. Will the 2016 FCS National Champions be able to turn ECU’s program around in 2019?

East Carolina Should Improve in 2019

Houston has won at every level he’s coached at, including an FCS national title at James Madison. On offense, Houston will be relying on junior quarterback Holton Ahlers to take another step forward after a decent freshman season.

Ahlers totaled 2,300 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions last year, but he also recorded an ugly 48.3 completion percentage. That was brought down by two bad games against Tulane and Cincinnati where he went 29-for-89. Still, it’s no secret that his completion percentage will need to improve if ECU is going to rebound.

#Pirates learning to place an emphasis on taking the ball away under defensive coordinator Bob Trott.

"He's big on turnovers. We are out there catching balls every day, just like receivers."https://t.co/P1h9tvRjVg pic.twitter.com/sWqLhsSHcj

— Hoist The Colours (@HTC247) April 16, 2019

The defense will also need to be better. That side of the ball was a major issue in 2018, giving up an average of 37.33 points per game and a total of 448 on the season.

Trott, the new DC, arrives at ECU after serving as defensive coordinator and safeties coach at James Madison from 2016-18. During his time with the Dukes, he helped produce seven All-CAA (Colonial Athletic Association) selections and helped make JMU the number-one ranked scoring defense.

How Much Can You Blame Last Season on Injuries?

Quarterback  Reid Herring began the 2018 season as the starter for ECU but had an ankle injury and concussion issues derail his season. Ahlers did a good job taking over after that first injury, but then dealt with injuries of his own. Ahlers injured his throwing hand and later his knee. He’s been named the starting QB over Herring in 2019.

#BREAKING First-year head coach Mike Houston officially names sophomore Holton Ahlers as his starting QB. The Greenville native and D.H. Conley grad beats out junior Reid Herring for the job.

— Tyler Feldman (@TylerFeldmanTV) August 20, 2019

Not only were there injuries at quarterback, but only two of the Pirates’ five leading receivers played in more than 10 games last season. You have to think the team will have better injury luck this year.

Reasons to Be Cautious

East Carolina should improve in 2019, but playing in a strong conference and division (by Group of 5 standards) means you can’t be too optimistic. They are going to be hard-pressed to get to five wins in 2019. I don’t like their chances in the opener against North Carolina despite N.C. State losing starting quarterback Ryan Finley.

The odds will also be heavily stacked against them when they play Temple, Central Florida, USF, and Cincinnati.

The only three games that come close to guaranteed wins are vs. Gardner-Webb and William & Mary, in addition to a road game against Connecticut. Gardner-Webb only managed three wins in a weak Big South Conference last year, while William & Mary had a third consecutive losing season. ECU beat the Huskies 55-21 in Greenville last season.

While the defense should improve, it still remains a concern. ECU loses top DE Nate Harvey, who was named AAC Defensive Player of the Year after he led the nation in total TFLs (24.0) and solo TFLs (22.0). Harvey also finished with 31.5 run stuffs (second in FBS) and 14.5 sacks (fourth). Senior tackles Alex Turner and Jalen Price and ends Kendall Futrell and Chance Purvis are returning, but losing Harvey will be tough.

Five receivers are returning, but top receiver Trevon Brown, who was targeted three more times than anyone else on ECU in 2018, is gone. The Pirates were also 125th in rushing S&P last season and don’t appear to have gotten much better in that department. Ahlers was the top rusher last season and top running back Anthony Scott is no longer with the club.

Best Bet for ECU’s 2019 Win Total

I’m really eager to see what Mike Houston and Bob Trott can do with this team. The defense should improve, but losing five of your top-nine tacklers is significant. Ahlers has a high ceiling if he can improve his accuracy and consistency.

I do think the Pirates take a positive step forward this season, but I only see it being by a couple wins. Betting the over at 3.5 was good value. That value has disappeared with these new odds. With the juice heavily on the over at 4.5 and 5.0 wins for ECU, betting the under is the safer choice and provides the better value.