Gators Are 17.5-Point Home Favorites vs Florida State; Florida on 5-1 ATS Run

• Florida won last season’s meeting 41-14 in Tallahassee
• Florida State won the previous five meetings prior to last season
• Florida quarterback Kyle Trask has changed Florida’s offense

It’s Rivalry Week in college football. And, while some games have implications on conference races, others are more about pride and ending the regular season on a positive note. One such contest takes place on Saturday evening when the Florida State Seminoles (6-5) visit the No. 11 Florida Gators (9-2) in The Swamp. 

Florida State vs Florida Odds

Odds taken Nov. 25

The Gators are currently 17.5-point favorites and it could grow as the week progresses. While Florida State has won its last two games, those games have come against Alabama State and Boston College. Meanwhile, the Gators have also won two in a row by a combined 79-6 over SEC foes Missouri and Vanderbilt. Both Florida losses this season have come against teams currently ranked in the top ten (LSU & Georgia). 

Series History

Florida leads the all-time series, 35-26-2. Known as the Sunshine Showdown, this series began all the way back in 1958. The Gators dominated the series early, winning 16 of the first 19 meetings between the two schools. However, when Bobby Bowden took over FSU in 1976, the ‘Noles became much more competitive. While Florida won last season’s meeting, the Seminoles won the previous five meetings and dominated the rivalry since Urban Meyer left Gainesville.

Another Disappointing Year for FSU

Willie Taggart was hired to replace Jimbo Fisher as the head coach after the 2017 season. Taggart, who spent one year at Oregon, was a Florida native and had spent the prior four years at South Florida. 

Well, the Seminoles went 5-7 and missed a bowl in his first season. The ‘Noles started 4-5 this season and Taggart was fired and replaced by longtime FSU assistant Odell Haggins. Haggins is 2-0 as the interim coach. It’s Haggins second go-round as interim coach and he is a combined 4-0 in the role. An outstanding recruiter and FSU graduate, Haggins should be a true contender for the full-time job. 

Tamorrion Terry with the slick footwork for the house call! ?

(Via @accnetwork)pic.twitter.com/zKIWIAR2Wn

— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) August 31, 2019

Florida State wide receiver Tamorrion Terry is one of the best receivers in the country. The 6’4″ sophomore is a big play waiting to happen and is averaging 20 yards per reception on 44 catches this season.

It’s Been a Great Year for the Gators

At 9-2, Florida has had a good season. As usual, Florida plays great defense and currently ranks No. 12 in total defense. The Gators have been better on offense than in recent seasons and a big reason for that is junior quarterback Kyle Trask. Head coach Dan Mullen moved Trask into the starting lineup in September and on the season, Trask has completed 67-percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

A big congratulations to Sophomore Kyle Pitts for being named a Walter Camp Player of the Year Semifinalist ?@WalterCampFF x @kylepitts__
#GatorStandard pic.twitter.com/5jWaoV5WyA

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) November 21, 2019

The Gators have a plethora of weapons in the passing game, featuring tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receivers Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes and Freddie Swain. The four have all caught at least 30 passes and combined for 17 touchdowns.

Who to Pick?

The Seminoles are 4-6-1 against the spread in 2019. FSU was 23-point favorites against Louisiana Monroe back in September, yet won by just one point. The ‘Noles have covered in each of their last two games. Florida is 6-3-2 against the spread this season.

It’s worth noting the Gators are actually 4-0 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season. This weekend is the fifth time Florida has been favored by ten or more points. Also, Florida hasn’t lost at home this season.

The Pick: Florida (-17.5)