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Jalen Hurts Over/Unders Set at 3,450 Passing Yards, 1,100 Rushing Yards, and 13 Rushing Touchdowns

Is Jalen Hurts in line for a Heisman type season? Photo from @OKCCBSSPORTS105 (Twitter)
  • You can wager on Jalen Hurts 2019 season total props
  • Hurts’ projections are now incredible high after being named the Sooners starter
  • What’s the best bet for each prop?

Oddsmakers are extremely high on Jalen Hurts now that he’s starting for Oklahoma.

The former Alabama star has some incredibly lofty season total props, in large part due to the fact that he’s now running an offense that has produced back-to-back Heisman winners.

Total Passing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

3,450 Passing Yards Odds
Over +110
Under -140

*All odds taken 08/23/19

Hurts is projected to throw for 700 more yards than superstar sophomore Trevor Lawrence, despite having much longer Heisman odds. Early  line movement suggests sharp bettors are betting against Hurts, as the under on 3,450 passing yards has been juiced up to -140.

Hurts never exceeded 2,780 passing yards in two full seasons as Alabama’s starter, despite having 382 attempts in 2016. Yes, Lincoln Riley’s offense has produced consecutive 4,000 yard passers, but Baker Mayfield threw for at least 3,700 yards in two straight seasons before winning the Heisman, and Kyler Murray averaged over 17 yards per attempt the year before winning his Heisman.

Hurts has never demonstrated the ability to put up lofty passing numbers in college or high school, and with a career average of just 8 yards per attempt, it seems unlikely that he exceeds this total.

Pick: Under 3,450 Passing Yards (-140)

Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

33.5 TD Passes Odds
Over +110
Under -140

*All odds taken 08/23/19

It’s important to note that all of these bets will be graded after the 12 game regular season, which means Hurts will need to average 2.83 touchdown passes per game to exceed this total. Both Mayfield and Murray tossed 37 regular season touchdown passes in their final regular seasons at Oklahoma, and it would be foolish to suggest there isn’t a significant talent gap between those two quarterbacks and Hurts.

It’s hard to quantify how large the drop off will be, but Hurts averaged just 1.4 touchdown passes at Alabama despite throwing to studs like Calvin Ridley, OJ Howard and future first round pick Jerry Jeudy.

Pick: Under 33.5 TD Passes (-140)

Total Interceptions in 2019 Regular Season

5.5 Interceptions Odds
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -110

*All odds taken 08/23/19

Hurts projects for more pass attempts in 2019 than any other season in his career and his mediocre completion percentage could produce plenty of interceptions. The only time he exceeded 255 pass attempts in a season he was picked off nine times, and after seeing Murray and Mayfield combine for 13 interceptions in this system in 2017 and 2018, I like Hurts chances of exceeding this total.

Pick: Over 5.5 Interceptions (-120)

Total Rushing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

1100 Rushing Yards Odds
Over +130
Under -160

*All odds taken 08/23/19

Murray proved that a 1,000 rushing season in Riley’s offense is possible, but 1,100  rushing yards for Hurts seems high. He has a career average of 5.2 rushing yards per attempt, and even if we increased that number by 50% to account for softer Big 12 defenses, he’d still need to average 11.7 attempts per game to reach 1,100 yards. That amount of carries seems very unrealistic give how much Oklahoma loves to throw the ball.

Pick: Under 1,100 Rushing Yards (-160)

Total Rushing TDs in 2019 Regular Season

12 Rushing TD’s Odds
Over -115
Under -130

*All odds taken 08/23/19

Hurts is a dangerous rushing threat inside the red zone and I believe his inefficiencies as a thrower will create more opportunity to score touchdowns in close on the ground. He rushed for 12 scores in his freshman year at Alabama, and he was a prolific runner in high school, rushing for 34 touchdowns in just 16 games.

Pick: Over 12 Rushing TD (-115)

 

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