Michigan Listed as 22-Point Favorites Over Army; Wolverines 2-11 ATS in Last 13 When Favored by 20 or More

Michigan Struggles to Cover Large Spreads

Michigan has a history of failing to cover large spreads, as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when favored by 20 points or more.  Michigan beat Middle Tennessee 40-21 in Week 1, but they failed to cover the large 36-point spread.

The Blue Raiders were able to keep the game competitive thanks in part to errors by Michigan. Wolverines starting QB Shea Patterson had two fumbles and the team has several pre-snap penalties.

Shea Patterson after the game: “A win is a win, but I don’t think anyone in that locker room felt like we lived up to our standard.”

“… We’ve got to play better. I’ve got to play better.”

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) September 1, 2019

The Wolverines will be in tough to cover against Army in Week 2. They should should be able to iron out some of their offensive hiccups from Week 1, but it’s still going to take some time for them to get fully adjusted to running a spread offense under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. They also have to deal with Army’s triple option offense, which is something they are very unaccustomed to playing against.

Army does well covering road spreads

Since 2015, Army is 12-6-1 ATS when they are the away team. They will look to build on that success when they visit the Big House this Saturday.

Much like the Wolverines, the Black Knights didn’t play to their full potential in Week 1. Rice held Army to 231 rushing yards, which was an average of 4.1 yards per carry. In 2018, Army averaged 4.9 yards per carry, which was ranked second in the nation at 312 yards per game. Army’s running game will almost certainly be better in Week 2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU4FCjSm4qw

The Black Knights are coming off an 11-win season and are riding a 10-game win streak entering Week 2.

They went 3-1-0 ATS on the road last year, including taking a playoff-bound Oklahoma team to overtime. The Sooners were a 28.5 favorite in the game and narrowly avoided an upset.

Shea Patterson’s Impact

Despite the fumbles, Shea Patterson looked strong in Week 1 and should soon be clicking on all cylinders with Michigan’s new-look offense. He’s a main reason why Army isn’t a great bet for the upset.

Patterson completed 64.6% of his passes for 2,600 yards, 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions in Week 1. He reportedly was hurt on the first play of the game in Week 1 and still managed to turn in a good performance. Look for him to be lethal in Week 2.

Sources tell me Michigan’s Shea Patterson was hurt on the first play of the game against MTSU and should be ready to go “full force” this week. Couldn’t use lower body throughout the game, but should be ready to go barring any setbacks.

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) September 4, 2019

Army’s starting QB, Kelvin Hopkins Jr, was the team’s leading rusher in 2018 and he gained 80 yards on 21 carries in Week 1. He also completed three passes, including a 17-yard touchdown. Hopkins Jr is a valuable asset, but he isn’t on the same level as the potential Heisman candidate Patterson.

Verdict on Michigan vs. Army

Both teams should be better in Week 2, but Army’s success ATS on the road and Michigan’s struggles to cover large spreads in general makes the Black Knights a good bet to cover in Week 2.

The Wolverines were able to limit Middle Tennessee State to 2.4 yards per rush in the opener, but it won’t be that easy in Week 2. Army has a ruthless running game that will wear down Michigan’s defensive front.

Michigan’s offense is dangerous and gives them the edge, but don’t discount Army. They put up 70 points against a good Houston team last year and took Oklahoma to overtime on the road. Look for them to cover in Week 2.

Pick: Army (+22)