NC State Getting 61% of Money vs West Virginia as 7-Point Road Favorite, But 94% Is from Sharps

*Odds taken 09/13/19.

Sharps Betting on the Wolfpack

The fact that 94% of the money on NC State is coming from sharps — generally people who bet for a living — is a telltale sign that the analytics favor the road team here. Conversely, it also implies that the public appears to be backing WVU, as the line hasn’t shifted a great deal since it first opened.

Why are are the sharps so confident in the Wolfpack? Does NC State’s strong start make them a good bet to cover against a rebuilding West Virginia program?

NC State Has Explosive Offense

The Wolfpack’s offense has looked explosive through two weeks. They’ve put up a combined 75 points against East Carolina and West Carolina this season and can take advantage of a new-look Western Virginia defense that got decimated by Missouri in Week 2.

New Wolfpack QB Matt McKay is off  to a promising start as the successor to Ryan Finley, going 43-of-65 for 508 yards and two touchdowns in two games.

NC State exploded for 309 rushing yards in Week 2. Freshman running back Zonovan Knight has looked great, scoring a touchdown in the opener before running for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries in Week 2.

@knight_zonovan is starting to come into his own in Raleigh ?

▪️ 18 carries
▪️ 119 yards
▪️ 2 TDs#1Pack1Goal | @PackFootball pic.twitter.com/cP7Prd81X3

— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 11, 2019

West Virginia’s running game, meanwhile, has been non-existent through two contests. They’ve also only thrown for 401 yards in two games. This is a struggling offense that is going to face a very good defense in Week 3. I don’t like the chances of this being a bounce-back game for WVU.

NC State Also Has Defensive Edge

Not only has the offense looked great for NC State, but the defense is looking as solid as ever.  The Wolfpack D held Western Carolina to just 106 yards in Week 2, and they’ve yet to allow a touchdown this season.

Although @PackFootball has faced nonconference teams, for the first time in head coach Dave Doeren’s tenure at NC State, the Wolfpack has not allowed a touchdown through two games.https://t.co/zjsJxqqXmC

— Technician Sports (@TechSports) September 9, 2019

NC State has eight starters returning on defense, led by senior defensive end James Smith-Williams. He already has a sack this season after leading the team with six in 2018.

The Wolfpack’s defense simply dominated the Catamounts in Week 2. Western Carolina finished with just eight rushing yards in the game. This doesn’t bode well for West Virginia, which is still trying to figure things out under new coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are ranked last among all 130 FBS teams in rushing yards with 56 rushes for 64 yards (1.1 yards per carry).

WVU will be NC State’s first Power-Five opponent this season, but NC State’s defense is rock-solid and West Virginia’s offense is struggling.

Verdict

The Sharps are taking NC State because the Wolfpack have the advantage in almost every area of the game.

This is an excellent defensive team that has also had an explosive start on offense. West Virginia, meanwhile, is struggling on offense and won’t be able to generate much against the Wolfpack.

NC State is the safe bet, and I think they win by at least 10 points.

Pick: NC State (-7)