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Oklahoma Opens as 10.5-Point Favorite Over Texas; Longhorns Have Covered Six Straight vs OU in the Cotton Bowl

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Oct 7, 2019 · 9:00 PM PDT

Oklahoma vs. Texas in the Red River Showdown
No. 6 Oklahoma has opened as 10.5-point favorites over No. 11 Texas in the 2019 Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7. Photo from Fox Sports (Wikimedia Commons)
  • No. 6 Oklahoma faces No. 11 Texas at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7 (Sat., Oct 12th)
  • Quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger go head-to-head in what should be a high-scoring game
  • Sooners have failed to cover spread in six straight Cotton Bowl games vs. Texas

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) and No. 11 Texas (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) faceoff off in the annual Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl in Week 7 (Sat. Oct 12th, 12:00 PM ET).

The undefeated Sooners have opened as 10.5-point favorites in the game. Jalen Hurts is leading a dominant Oklahoma offense that is averaging a nation-leading 644 yards and 53 points per game.

Texas is 4-1 on the season and came close to defeating LSU in Week 2 (45-38 loss). The Longhorns have their own talented quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, who remains a fringe contender in the 2019 Heisman odds.

How should you bet on the early Oklahoma vs Texas odds?

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma #6 -10.5 (-110) O 75.0 (-110)
Texas #11 +10.5 (-110) U 75.0 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/07/19.

The Matchup

Oklahoma is 5-0 on the season after beating Kansas 45-20 in Week 6. Texas beat West Virginia 42-31 to improve to 4-1.

Oklahoma has had their way with outmatched Big 12 opponents this season, while the Longhorns’ only loss came at the hands of a very good LSU team in Week 2. This will be the first real test for the Sooners.

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger isn’t at the top of the Heisman odds, but he’s quietly having a very productive season. He’s averaging four touchdowns a game and ranks 13th in FBS with a 169.8 pass-efficiency rating.

Jalen Hurts is the main reason why Oklahoma is favored by -10.5 points in this game. He’s leading a Sooners passing attack that is averaging a whopping 12.7 yards per attempt, second-best in the country. Hurts is going up against a Texas pass defense that isn’t even ranked among the top-100 and has been hit hard by injuries.

As good as Ehlinger has been, Hurts and Oklahoma have the advantage in the air.

Jalen Hurts is Confident

Heisman co-favorite Hurts is confident in his ability to perform in his biggest test of the season. The Oklahoma QB has dominated overmatched opponents this season, but will be challenged when he faces a ranked Longhorns squad in Week 7.

Hurts leads the nation with a 231.3 passer efficiency rating, while also rushing for 499 yards. This will be his first appearance in the Red River rivalry, but the Alabama transfer has already played in SEC title games, College Football Playoff games, and national title games.

Oklahoma has produced consecutive Heisman winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, but both players came up short against Texas in the last two years. It was current Texas QB Ehlinger who outdueled Murray in 2018.

Hurts is an elite dual-threat QB who will be out to prove he can get the job done against one of the best teams in the conference. Given how good he’s been this year and his confidence entering Week 7, I’m reluctant to bet against him.

Texas Can Stick with Top Teams

The Longhorns have a proven history of being able to keep pace with some of the best teams in the nation. LSU has a prolific offense, and Texas kept it close in Week 2 with a 45-38 loss. The Longhorns were only trailing by two points heading into the fourth quarter and Ehlinger was able to go toe-to-toe with another Heisman frontrunner in Joe Burrow.

Texas didn’t lose a game last season by more than 10 points and have kept it close with Oklahoma in recent years. While the Sooners have won three of the last four meetings, it’s only been by a combined score of 113-91. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma 48-45 in the regular season last year before losing to them 39-27 in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in six straight games game versus Texas at the Cotton Bowl. They’ve put up better numbers this season because they’ve faced easier opponents. This Texas team is the real deal.

Analysis on Early Oklahoma vs Texas odds

I expect this line to shift in favor of Texas heading into the weekend. The Longhorns have faced the tougher schedule to date and have all the tools to keep this one close. They showed against LSU how well they matchup against a team that is talented on both defense and offense.

I do think Oklahoma pulls out a victory thanks to a big game from Hurts, but I don’t expect it to be by more than 10 points.

I’d feel confident betting Texas to cover until Oklahoma is favored by less than a touchdown. Take the points.

Pick Texas (+10.5)

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