Justin Herbert and Oregon Laying 17.5 at Home vs Cal – Picks & Odds
- #13 Oregon hosts Cal on Saturday night (Oct. 5) at Autzen Stadium
- The Bears crashed out of the AP rankings after a disappointing 24-17 loss to Arizona State last week
- Here are tips and trends to help you make an informed wager ahead of this Pac-12 match up
The no. 13 Oregon Ducks (3-1) will host the no-longer-ranked Cal Golden Bears (4-1) in Week 6 (Sat, Oct. 5th, 8:00 PM ET) and the Cal vs Oregon odds are very clear: the home team is expected to run roughshod over visitors.
Cal vs #13 Oregon Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal | +17.5 (+100) | +700 | O 46 (-110) |
| #13 Oregon | -17.5 (-120) | -1000 | U 46 (-110) |
*odds taken 10/03
Cal is coming off a loss to Arizona State, while Oregon will be fresh off a bye. I’m siding with the Ducks even with the big spread and here’s why.
Oregon Much More Efficient Across the Board
The team efficiency rankings on ESPN paint a scary picture for the Bears. Their defense ranks 27th, which is good, albeit significantly worse than Oregon’s, which ranks 7th in the country.
Offensively, the Ducks are also better, ranking 24th while Cal now sits 60th after scoring only 17 points against Arizona State.
Arizona State is about as average of a Power 5 opponent as one could face and the Bears were still only able to muster 13 first downs and 245 total yards. Those numbers could be worse against the strong Ducks defense which will make it tough to keep up in this affair.
One reason the Cal offense struggled was the loss of starting QB Chase Garbers mid-game. He was 9/12 for 117 yards and a TD when he got injured. Backup Devon Modster went 5/14 for 23 yards and a pick.
Garbers is out indefinitely, and Modster will get his first career start with the Bears this Saturday.
Justin Herbert Making Case as Top NFL Draft Pick
Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is an elite thrower of the football and, as was pointed out earlier, it won’t require much offense to win this ball game. It’s rare you see a 17.5-point spread and a total of only 46 in college football. If Herbert can match the numbers he’s put up in the team’s first four games of the year, it should be a great day for his highlight tape.
They're baaaaaack. 🦆🔙@oregonfootball returns after a bye week to host Cal on Saturday and Justin Herbert will be in the spotlight vs. the Bears secondary. pic.twitter.com/yjV3hJ0pgA
— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) October 2, 2019
Herbert is the biggest reason Oregon appears in the National Championship odds. He is 96 of 129 passing the ball this year, good for a 74.4% completion percentage.
More impressive? Herbert has 14 touchdowns without a pick in those four games. He did play two good defenses, as well, in Auburn and Stanford (if you squint).
I expect Herbert and the Oregon offense to overwhelm the Cal secondary and, while they may not have enough to hit the OVER on their own once Cal gets shut down, I feel very good about laying 17.5.
Expect This Year to Look Like Last Year
Herbert was clinical completing 16 of his 22 passes last year with 2 TD and 0 INT. The Ducks left Cal with a 42-24 win which would be just enough to win this bet.
With this year’s game at Autzen Stadium, I see the margin growing.
PICK: Oregon -17.5 (-120)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
