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Over/Under Bowl Wins by Conference: Best Bets for the Pac-12, SEC and Big 12

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Dec 20, 2019 · 3:48 PM PST

2006 Rose Bowl
Oddsmakers have released bowl-game win totals for the Power Five Conferences. Which odds offer the best value? Photo by Eric R (Wikimedia) [CC License]
  • You can wager on bowl-win totals for the Power Five conferences
  • The SEC had the best bowl record last season, while the Pac-12 had the worst
  • Which over/unders have the best value this year?

Sportsbooks have released odds on bowl-game win totals for all the Power Five conferences (National Championship game not included). The SEC had the best record last season at 6-5, while the Pac-12 had the worst record at 3-5.

The SEC isn’t being given much margin for error this season, while the Big 12 may be getting undervalued.

Which over/unders have the best value?

Total Bowl Wins: 2019-20

Conference Odds
ACC Over 5 (-120), Under 5 (-120)
Big 12 Over 1.5 (-150), Under 1.5 (+110)
Big 10 Over 4.5 (-100), Under 4.5 (-140)
Pac-12 Over 3.5 (-160), Under 3.5 (+120)
SEC Over 7 (-110), Under 7 (-130)

Odds as of Dec. 20.

There are a few over/under totals that offer good value. Here are three picks on bowl win totals for Power Five Conferences.

Pac-12 Bowl Games

Bowl Matchup
Rose Bowl No. 6 Oregon (+3)  vs No. 8 Wisconsin
Alamo Bowl No. 11 Utah (-7) vs. Texas
Holiday Bowl No. 22 USC (+2) vs. No. 16 Iowa
Sunbox Bowl Arizona State (-4.5) vs. Florida State
Redbox Bowl California (-6.5)  vs. Illinois
Las Vegas Bowl Washington (-3) vs. No. 19 Boise State
Cheez-It Bowl Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force

The Pac-12 will be looking to reverse a trend of performing poorly in bowl games. They did improve their record from the previous year to 3-4 last season, but the conference is still just 7-15 in bowl games over the last three seasons.

The Pac-12 was the only FBS conference this season to have all its teams finish the regular season with at least four victories. They don’t have spreads as large as the some of the ones in the  SEC, but each team has a realistic shot at winning its respective bowl games.

California and Arizona State are both 7-win teams that hold solid advantages in their respective matchups. Washington is going to be very motivated in Chris Petersen’s final game as head coach, while a hungry Utah team should pile on the offense against a weak Texas defense after getting outplayed by Oregon in the title game.

The Ducks looked great against the Utes and have the dual-threat offense to upset Wisconsin, while surging USC freshman Kedon Slovis has thrown for over 400 yards in three straight games and can lead USC past Iowa. The Pac-12 is a solid bet for at least four wins.

Pac-12 Pick: Over 3.5 Bowl Wins (-160)

SEC Bowl Games

Bowl Matchup
Peach Bowl No. 1 LSU (-13.5)  vs No. 4 Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl No. 5 Georgia (-6) vs. No. 7 Baylor
Orange Bowl No. 9 Florida (-14.5) vs. No. 24 Virginia
Outback Bowl No. 12 Auburn (-7) vs. No. 18 Minnesota
Citrus Bowl No. 13 Alabama (-7) vs. No. 14 Michigan
Belk Bowl Kentucky (+2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Music City Bowl Mississippi State (-4) vs. Louisville
Gator Bowl Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Indiana
Texas Bowl Texas A&M (-7) vs. No. 25 Oklahoma State

The SEC was the best Power Five conference in bowl season last year, posting a 6-5 record. Taking the over this year means betting on every single favorite winning their respective games. There isn’t a sure-fire upset bet, but there are plenty of matchups with strong upset potential.

Louisville and Indiana are two feisty teams that could easily win their respective games, while Auburn and Georgia are two top-15 teams on upset alert. Georgia was upset by Texas last season and will be facing another strong Big 12 team in Baylor this time. The Bears only lost twice this season, and they were two very close games against Oklahoma. The Bulldogs are also coming off a deflating loss to LSU in the title game.

Minnesota also proved they are capable of beating a strong defensive team like Auburn when they beat Penn State this season. The solid play of QB Tanner Morgan gives them a good chance at upsetting the Tigers.

As good as these matchups look for SEC teams on paper, key players often end up sitting out and the favorite ends up underwhelming because they aren’t motivated to be playing in the game.  Betting on at least two of these teams losing is a safe pick.

SEC Pick: Under 7 Bowl Wins (-130)

Big 12 Bowl Games

Bowl Matchup
Peach Bowl No. 4 Oklahoma (+13.5)  vs No. 1 LSU
Sugar Bowl No. 7 Baylor (+6) vs. No. 5 Georgia
Texas Bowl No. 25 Oklahoma State (+7) vs Texas A&M
Camping World Bowl Iowa State (+3.5) vs. No. 15 Notre Dame
Liberty Bowl Kansas State (+2.5) vs Navy
Alamo Bowl Texas (+7) vs. No.11 Utah

The Big 12 seems to be getting undervalued this season after garnering four bowl wins last season. The Big 12 has been underdogs in 12 of their last 13 bowl games yet they have the best win percentage of any Power Five conference since 2016 (62%). The Big 12 has also won six of their last nine bowl games against SEC teams.

In addition to Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State are two underdogs with good upset potential. Chuba Hubbard leads the country in rushing yards and will go off against this Aggies defense, while Kansas State has already upset Oklahoma this season and has a good chance at beating Navy behind dual-threat QB Skylar Thompson.

Based on recent performance and history, betting on at least two of these underdogs puling off victories is solid value.

Big 12 Pick: Over 1.5 Bowl Wins (-150)

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