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San Diego State vs Nevada Odds, Spread and Picks

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Oct 21, 2022 · 4:00 PM PDT

San Diego State Aztecs running back Jordan Byrd celebrates after scoring a touchdown
Sep 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs running back Jordan Byrd (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Toledo Rockets during the second half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
  • San Diego State is a 7-point road favorite at Nevada on Saturday
  • Nevada has lost its last five while going 0-5 ATS
  • Read below for San Diego State vs Nevada odds, spread and betting prediction

San Diego State (3-3, 1-1 Mountain West) is a 7-point road favorite over Nevada in a Mountain West West Division game at 10:30 pm ET Saturday on the CBS Sports Network. The Aztecs have won two of their last three and are coming off a bye.

Nevada (2-5, 0-3) has lost five in a row after opening the season with victories over New Mexico State and Texas State. The Wolf Pack has scored 50 points in its last four games, starting with a 27-0 loss at Iowa.

San Diego State vs Nevada Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego Aztecs -7 (-105) -265 Over 35.5 (-114)
Nevada Wolf Pack +7 (-115) +215 Under 35.5 (-106)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Oct 21.

San Diego State is a 7-point road favorite in Reno in a game that matches a pair of Mountain West underachievers. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS overall, 0-3 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS on the road. Nevada is 2-5 ATS, 1-2 ATS at home and 1-2 ATS as an underdog. At -285 on the moneyline, the Aztecs have a 74 percent implied win probability here.

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The Aztecs are 5-2 SU in their last seven on the road and 1-4-1 ATS in the last six on the road. The Wolf Pack are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the last four against San Diego State. All have been decided by four points or fewer. The early total of 36.5 was bet down to 35.5, the second-lowest total in college football this season. Iowa beat Rutgers 27-10 on Sept. 14, a game that went off with a total of 34.5. The implied final score here is San Diego State 21.25, Nevada 14.25.

San Diego State Finds a QB

Safety-turned-quarterback Jalen Mayden will make his second career start behind center for the Aztecs after completing 24 of 36 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown in a 16-14 victory against Hawaii on Oct. 8.

Mayden is fourth in the Aztecs’ quarterback rotation this season. Braxton Burmeister played through an early-season shoulder injury and started the first five games before suffering a concussion against Boise State. Highly recruited backup Will Haskell left the program three weeks into the season. New No. 2 Kyle Crum replaced Burmeister against Boise State, but Crum left that game with a collarbone injury and freshman Liu Aumavae followed before Mayden swapped units to start against Hawaii.

Mayden, who transferred from Mississippi State and was an Aztecs’ reserve quarterback in 2021, switched positions when  Burmeister transferred in from Virginia Tech this spring. He played 65 snaps at safety in a 17-14 victory over Toledo on Sept. 24 before the team necessitated a return to offense. Mayden had the school’s most passing yards in a debut since Ryan Lindley (352 yards, 2008), and wide receiver Tyrell Shavers had eight receptions for 149 yards against the Rainbow Warriors.

The Aztecs threw for only 378 yards in their first five games under Burmeister, who was moved to wide receiver this week but will remain the backup quarterback. Jeff Horton was promoted to offensive coordinator and Lindley to quarterbacks coach after Jeff Hecklinski was fired following the Boise State game. San Diego ranks 125th in Division I in total offense a 284.7 yards per game, even after gaining 417 against Hawaii.

Nevada Seems in Free Fall

The Wolf Pack have hit a wall. After opening the season with victories over New Mexico State and Texas State, they have lost to Mountain West bottom feeders Colorado State and Hawaii and FCS Incarnate Word. A week after San Diego State beat Hawaii 17-14, the Wolf Pack suffered a 31-16 loss to the Rainbow Warriors.

Nevada ranks just ahead of San Diego State in total offense at 289.9 yards and 21.7 points per game, which are 123rd and 109th in Division I, respectively. Quarterback Nate Cox, who took over for Oklahoma State transfer Shane Illingworth after the shutout loss at Iowa, has completed 55 percent of his passes for 954 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The offense goes through halfback Toa Taua, who has 666 yards rushing/receiving and eight touchdowns.

The Wolf Pack have 10 interceptions among their 15 takeaways, and defensive back Bentlee Sanders (five picks) is an AP midseason All-American.

San Diego State vs Nevada Prediction

If you want to bet on San Diego State vs Nevada, think again. If you must have action, taking the points in a game featuring two of the least efficient offenses in Division I is the way to go. Neither team is likely to reach its projected number in the CFB win totals odds.

  • The pick: Nevada +7 (-115)
  • Season: 23-21 ATS (+11.1 units)


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