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Trevor Lawrence Over/Unders Set at Just 4.5 Interceptions and Just 24.5 Touchdown Passes, Which is 12 Fewer Than Tua

Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence
Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence emerged as the 2019 Heisman Trophy favorite after leading his team to the national title on Jan. 7th. Photo by David Dennis/Icon Sportswire.
  • You can wager on Trevor Lawrence’s 2019 season total props at BetOnline
  • Lawrence’s over/unders are set unusually low for a Heisman candidate
  • What’s the best bet for each prop?

Trevor Lawrence took the college football world by storm last season leading Clemson to a National Title as a freshman. Big things are expected from him in his sophomore season, and if you’re bullish on his talent, his over/under season total props at BetOnline present a lot of value.

Trevor Lawrence Total Passing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds at BetOnline
Over 2,750 Passing Yards -115
Under 2,750 Passing Yards -115

*All odds taken 08/21/19
It’s important to note that these props are graded after the regular season is over, but 2,750 passing yards still seems incredibly low for a quarterback tied for the shortest average 2019 Heisman odds. Once Lawrence was named the starter in 2018, he threw for 2,680 yards in 10 games, which included a 77-16 victory where he was rested after just 12 attempts.

He threw for over 325 yards in three of his final four starts last season and, if he has any hope of winning the Heisman in 2019, he’ll need to fly over this projection.

Each of the last 10 quarterbacks to win the Heisman threw for over 2,850 yards and four of the last five have eclipsed 4,000 yards. Expect Lawrence to hit this over with ease.

Pick: Over 2,750 Passing Yards (-115)

Trevor Lawrence Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds at BetOnline
Over 24.5 TD Passes -125
Under 24.5 TD Passes -105

*All odds taken 08/21/19

If you thought Lawrence’s yardage total was low, you must also wonder why his TD projection is just 24.5. It appears sharp bettors have already attacked this line because the juice has moved in favor of the over, but it’s ludicrous to think that the books are projecting 12 fewer touchdowns passes than Heisman co-favorite Tua Tagovailoa.

Plenty of college football experts have Lawrence ranked over Tagovailoa, and although he didn’t post huge TD pass totals in 2018, he did throw for multiple scores in six of his final eight starts, including three in each of the two College Football Playoff games.

He threw 92 touchdown passes in his final two seasons of high school football and now that he has plenty of experience at the collegiate level, 30 TD passes seems like a more reasonable projection.

Pick: Over 24.5 TD Passes (-125)

Trevor Lawrence Total Interceptions in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds at BetOnline
Over 4.5 Interceptions -115
Under 4.5 Interceptions -115

*All odds taken 08/21/19

Lawrence threw just four picks in 397 attempts last season, but asking him to maintain an INT rate of 1.01% for a second straight season seems unlikely. Just one Heisman winning quarterback since 1994 (Marcus Mariota in 2014) has thrown fewer than five interceptions in a full season, and while Lawrence is accurate (65.2 completion percentage) he’s not historically accurate.

There’s so much randomness that occurs with each potential drop back that all it takes is a few tipped balls to wind up in the opposing teams hands for this over to hit.

Pick: Over 4.5 interceptions (-115)

 

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