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Tua Tagovailoa’s 2019 Over/Unders Set at 36.5 Passing TDs, Just 4.0 Interceptions

Tua Tagovailoa on the field for Alabama
Tua Tagovailoa is off to a red-hot start in the 2019 season. Photo by the University of Alabama (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • You can wager on Tua Tagovailoa’s 2019 season total props
  • Each of the props listed predicts regression for Tagovailoa, and there is plenty of value to be found
  • What is the best bet for Tua’s passing yards, interceptions, and rushing touchdowns?

Most college football experts believe Tua Tagovailoa is poised for a monster season in 2019 and, if you share a similar belief, you can take advantage of his juicy player props.

Sportsbooks have a Tagovailoa prop for touchdown passes, interceptions and rushing touchdowns for the 2019 regular season.

Let’s take each one in turn.

Tua Tagovailoa Total Interceptions in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 4 Interceptions -115
Under 4 Interceptions -115

*All odds taken 08/20/19

Tagovailoa is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the Nation, but he’s projected to throw between 350-400 passes this season. With that kind of volume, he’d need to lower his INT rate to below 1% for the under to hit, and that seems like an awfully tough ask. He had a minuscule INT rate of 2.4% in 2018, and asking him to cut that by more than half seems unlikely.

None of the 16 quarterbacks who’ve won the Heisman Trophy this century has finished the season with fewer than four interceptions, and only Marcus Mariota in 2014 threw less than five.

Pick: Over 4 Interceptions (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa Total Passing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 3,250 Passing Yards -115
Under 3,250 Passing Yards -115

*All odds taken 08/20/19
Tagovailoa has the shortest 2019 Heisman odds for good reason. Not only is he extremely accurate, but he also pushes the ball downfield. His 11.2 average yards per attempt ranked second in the country in 2018, and was a big reason why he finished with 3,966 passing yards.

Keep in mind, he didn’t attempt a 4th quarter pass until November last year, and after narrowly missing out on the Heisman, you can bet Alabama will do everything they can to help him pad his stats in 2019.

He has the luxury of throwing to a receiving corps that combined for 201 catches and 3,596 yards last season, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t easily exceed this total if he stays healthy.

Pick: Over 3,250 Passing Yards (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa Total Rushing TD in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 5 Rushing TD -115
Under 5 Rushing TD -115

*All odds taken 08/20/19
Tagovailoa is not known for his rushing skillset, but he’s actually a pretty efficient runner when he takes off. He rushed for five touchdowns last season on just 57 attempts, and has seven career rushing scores.

Seven of the past eight quarterbacks to win the Heisman have scored at least five times on the ground, and with no Jalen Hurts to vulture any potential carries near the goal line, Tagovailo could certainly exceed five rushing touchdowns.

Pick: Over 5 Rushing TD (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa Total Rushing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 180.5 Rushing Yards -115
Under 180.5 Rushing Yards -115

*All odds taken 08/20/19

It’s important to remember that all of these props are graded immediately after the regular season is finished, and although Tagovailoa rushed for 190 yards in 2018, those numbers include the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. For his career, he averages just 14.3 rushing yards per game, and the Crimson Tide will be so dangerous through the air, there won’t be much need for him to break off huge runs.

Pick: Under 180.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Tua Tagovailoa Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

Over/Under Odds
Over 36.5 TD Passes -115
Under 36.5 TD Passes -115

*All odds taken 08/20/19
As mentioned, Tagovailoa’s receiving corps has the chance to be historically great, and they’re going to wind up scoring touchdowns on plays you’d never expect to go the distance. Jerry Jeudy is arguably the most talented player in next year’s draft, and Henry Ruggs projects as the fastest prospect in college football.

DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are also expected to excel at the next level, and after combing for 39 touchdown catches last season, this group of wideouts could easily top 40 scores this season. Throw in the odd TD catch for Bama’s running backs and tight ends, and Tagovailoa seems like a safe bet to challenge the 43 TD passes he put up in 2018.

Pick: Over 36.5 TD Passes (-115)

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