Utah and OK State 2019 Win Totals on the Rise; Is There Still Value on the Over?

OK State football coach Mike Gundy
Early money has hammered the over for Oklahoma State's 2019 win total. Can Mike Gundy (pictured) lead his team to another seven-win season? Photo by KT King (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • The Utah Utes and OK State Cowboys have both seen their preseason win totals rise 
  • The Utes have one of the easiest schedules in the Pac-12, while the Cowboys have recorded at least seven wins in 13 straight seasons
  • Is there still value on either team now that the odds have been revised?

Sportsbooks have posted regular-season win totals for college football, and it’s interesting to note some changes in their lines. The general rule is that people betting this early are sharps (professionals) and, if sportsbooks are moving lines, we should take note.

Utah and Oklahoma State’s numbers have gone up. Are either the over or under good bets at this point?

2019 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Team 2019 NCAAF Win Total Odds
Utah Utes Over 9.0 (-125) / Under 9.0 (-105)
OK State Cowboys Over 6.5 (-135) / Under 6.5 (+105)

The Utes’ regular-season win total opened up at 8.5 but has now climbed a half-game to 9. The over was juiced at -150 before but is still the chalk at -125.

The story is the same with the Cowboys, jumping from 6 to 6.5. Again, it’s important to note that squares don’t usually bet until closer to the season. This should be smart money moving the line.

Utah’s Schedule Seems Easy

One of the main reasons for the Utes win total climbing is that an early analysis of the schedules suggests that they should have one of the easiest in the conference. The schedule starts off with the Holy War against BYU and this year, they have to go to Provo. BYU was just 6-6 last year.

Then they’ll get a couple of cupcakes at home against Northern Illinois and Idaho State. They should be 3-0.

Conference play starts with a road trip to USC, who has been very average in recent years. They’ll also have to go on the road to face Washington later in the year. However, they dodge Oregon and Stanford on the schedule.

Utah will be a top-25 team – and maybe even top-15 – to start the year. They’re the class of the Pac-12 South and, with an easy schedule, the over looks like the right play still.

Bettors Are Buying Into Oklahoma State

It’s a little bit odd to see the Pokes with such a low total. After all, this is a team that has won at least seven games in the last 13 seasons. The only time they failed to do so in the Mike Gundy era was his first year in charge, though they did need to win their bowl game to hit seven last year, and bowl games don’t count towards these win totals.

Even at 6.5, I’d still lean to the over because of that aforementioned trend. Were they sluggish last year? Yes, their 6-6 record in the regular season would not have hit the over, as mentioned.

At the same time, this is a team that lost a ton of one-score games. They lost by six to Iowa State, by four to Baylor, by one to Oklahoma, and by seven to TCU.

The Cowboys got a little complacent, as Gundy put it in the offseason, but should have more life to them in 2019. They have two good quarterbacks in expected starter Spencer Sanders and Dru Brown behind him. The receiving corps mostly returns intact and should have a couple of NFL-caliber stars in Tylan Wallace (a dark-horse candidate in the 2019 Heisman odds) and Jelani Woods.

New offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson should give the offense a shot in the arm and, if that side of the ball is humming, OSU has already won most of its internal war.

The schedule also looks good as they should win at Oregon State to start the year and then ease past McNeese and Tulsa. While a visit to Texas is probably a loss, they’ll be favored over Kansas State in Week 5. That could give you four wins before the start of October.

With home games against TCU, Kansas and Baylor, that could be your over right there. I’d follow the action and bet the over.

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