Miami (0-2 ACC) Favored by One at Home vs UVA (2-0 ACC) in Week 7 – Picks & Odds

• The Virginia Cavaliers and Miami Hurricanes square off on Friday Night (8:00 PM ET, Oct. 11)
• The Canes opened as 1-point favorites but that line has been bet up to Miami -2
• What’s the best bet against the spread for UVA vs MIA?

The Miami Hurricanes (2-3, 0-2 ACC) are off to their worst start since 2011 and things aren’t about to get any easier with #20 Virginia (4-1, 2-0 ACC) coming to town on Friday Night (8:00 PM ET, Oct. 11).

The Canes are coming off a disappointing loss to Virginia Tech as two-touchdown favorites, but despite the poor showing, online sportsbooks still made them a short home favorite in the Virginia vs Miami odds.

Virginia vs Miami Odds

All odds taken 10/08/19.

The line opened Miami -1 and  that number actually moved towards Virginia before reversing course and settling at Miami -2. The Hurricanes are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven matchups with Virginia and have been absolutely abysmal in the last 23 months versus Power 5 competition.

Since Miami’s overall 15-game winning streak ended in 2017, Hurricanes are now 4-12 vs. Power 5 opponents after loss to Virginia Tech

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 5, 2019

Neither team is in a National Championship favorite, but the Cavaliers are in the ACC-title hunt in large part due to a ferocious pass rush.

A Massive Line Mismatch

The Cavaliers rank second in all of college football in sacks per game (4.8) and have allowed just one opposing QB to throw for more than 206 yards. The Canes have been much more successful through the air than on the ground this season, but protection is definitely going to be an issue against this stout Virginia front seven.

Updated Coastal Power Rankings:

1. Virginia
2. Pitt
3. Duke ⬆️2
4. UNC ?1
5. Miami ?1
6. VT
7. GT

— Ole Va ⚔️ Wahoowa (@oleuva) October 8, 2019

Miami has allowed more sacks than any other FBS program and are fresh off surrendering seven in their loss to the Hokies.

Their inability to protect has led to an alarming amount of turnovers, including five in their first six possessions last week. They rank 125th in third down success rate, 113th in red zone efficiency and have given up the fourth-most tackles for loss in the country.

It’s hard to imagine them having much success against a defense of this calibre, but perhaps a change at the quarterback position is just what the doctor ordered.

Is N’Kosi Perry the Answer?

With Jarren Williams nursing a shoulder injury, N’Kosi Perry will make his first start of the season, and second in the last two years versus the Cavaliers. Perry went just 3-for-6 with two interceptions against Virginia in 2018 before being benched in favor of Malik Rosier.

N’Kosi Perry will be the starting QB on Friday night vs #20 Virginia. QB Jarren Williams is apparently nursing a shoulder injury. #canes #beatuva pic.twitter.com/9O92JBmows

— The Miami Hurricanes Fan Page (@theUnews1) October 9, 2019

The sophomore QB brings more big-play ability to the table, but struggles with accuracy and is turnover prone. In six starts last season, he completed just 50% of his passes for 1,091 yards, 13 TD and 6 INT.

Facing Virginia certainly isn’t an ideal matchup for Perry, as not only do the the Cavaliers boast a fantastic pass rush but they also rank top-20 against the run. They’ll force him to beat them through the air, which will be tough given his erratic tendencies and the offensive line’s inability to keep him clean.

Continue to Fade the Canes

Fading Miami has been a profitable strategy this season and there’s no reason to stop now. If not for a 63-0 win over Bethune-Cookman, everyone would be pointing out how ineffective they’ve been on offense; switching quarterbacks isn’t going to magically solve the problem.  They’re winless in conference play and don’t have an impressive victory on their resume.

Virginia, on the other hand, has wins over a very talented Pittsburgh team and Florida State, and went toe-to-toe with #9 Notre Dame two weeks ago. Forget taking the points, play the Cavaliers on the moneyline getting plus-money.

Pick: Virginia moneyline (+115)