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College Football Week 6 ATS Picks: Auburn Defense Will Smother the Gators

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Oct 1, 2019 · 3:49 PM PDT

Georgia Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm
Jake Fromm and the Georgia Bulldogs are -25.5 favorites over Tennessee in Week 6. Photo from DawgSZN (YouTube).
  • Week 6 of the 2019 college football season begins on Thursday, October 3rd
  • On Saturday (Oct. 5th), No. 3 Georgia faces a struggling Tennessee team in Knoxville
  • Find my three favorite ATS picks for Week 6, below

Week 6 of college football gets underway on Thursday, October 3rd, with Temple vs ECU. But no games that will impact the CFP race will take place until Saturday, Oct. 5th.

Come the weekend, No. 3 Georgia will try to carry the momentum from their win over Notre Dame into a matchup with a struggling Tennessee team, while No. 7 Auburn and No. 10 Florida are set for a tight defensive battle.

Here are my three picks for Week 6.

Georgia vs. Tennessee Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia (#3) -25.5 (-115) O 51.5 (-110)
Tennessee +25.5 (-105) U 51.5 (-110)

All odds taken 01/01/19.

No. 3 Georgia and Tennessee both had a bye week to get prepared for their Week 6 showdown in Knoxville. The Bulldogs have won the last two matchups by a combined score of 79-12.

After three straight blowout victories to open the season, Georgia was given their real test against Notre Dame in Week 4. The Bulldogs pulled out a 23-17 victory, but the Fighting Irish were in the game all the way. Georgia will be looking to reinstate their dominance against a 1-3 Tennessee team in Week 6.

Tennessee is 1-3 ATS this season and lost 34-3 to Florida in Week 4. They’ve had some time to prepare for Georgia, but this is a struggling team with a quarterback problem.

The Volunteers have yet to name a starting QB for Saturday’s game after heretofore starter Jarrett Guarantano struggled against Florida and was benched to start the second half. The offense will be in tough against a Georgia pass defense that ranks 13th in the nation.

The Bulldogs have a strong offense led by quarterback Jake Fromm. The longshot Heisman contender came up big in the second half against a ranked Notre Dame team and will take advantage of a Tennessee defense that has allowed an average of 34 points in its three losses.

Georgia has the better talent on boths sides of the ball and should be able to cover this large spread. The Volunteers won’t be able to get much going in the air, while Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift will dominate a Tennessee defense that has struggled against outmatched opponents this season.

Pick: Georgia (-25.5)

Auburn vs. Florida Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Auburn (#7) -3.5 (-110) -150 O 47.0 (-110)
Florida (#10) +3.5 (-110) +130 U 47.0 (-110)

The Auburn vs Florida odds opened at Auburn -2.5 at some sportsbooks, but is now at least a field goal across the board and 3.5.

Auburn is 5-0 this season and has covered the spread in each victory. The Tigers offense exploded for 42 points in the first half against Mississippi State in Week 5.

There’s plenty to like about Auburn heading into Week 6. The Tigers had been mainly relying on their run game through the first four games, but true freshman quarterback Bo Nix got on track in Week 5.

Nix went 16-of-21 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, while receiver Seth Williams had eight receptions for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Kylin Hill is one of the top rushers in the SEC and gives the Tigers a well-balanced offensive attack.

Florida is also 5-0 on the season after easily beating an outmatched Towson State team 38-0 in Week 5. The Gators are only 2-3 ATS, however, and they failed to cover as 40-point home favorites against Towson.

The Gators will be without junior wide receiver Kadarius Toney for the fourth straight game, while starting quarterback Feleipe Franks is also injured. This will be a tight defensive battle, but I think Auburn has the edge.

Tigers QB Nix is coming off his best game of the season and Auburn has the sixth-best rush offense in FBS. Florida’s offense hasn’t fully clicked all year and I’m not confident they’ll be able to generate much against a solid Auburn defense.

Seniors Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson lead a ruthless Auburn defensive line that has 13 sacks this season. While Gator QB Kyle Trask is a strong passer, he doesn’t have the dual-threat ability that Franks has. He’s going to be hit hard by one of the best defensive lines in the nation.

The Tigers have faced the tougher schedule to date and will use their experience from wins over Oregon and Texas A&M to earn another victory over a ranked opponent.

Pick: Auburn (-3.5)

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma State (#21) -10.5 (-115) -380 O 63.5 (-110)
Texas Tech +10.5 (-105) +290 U 63.5 (-110)

The OK State vs Texas Tech odds are moving in the Cowboys’ favor, partly due to injuries on the Tech side, but more so because OK State (4-1) is playing solid football.

The Cowboys brings a very dangerous run game led by running back Chuba Hubbard into Lubbock to face Texas Tech (2-2) in Week 6. Hubbard has ran for a whopping 938 yards on 128 attempts (7.3 per carry) and scored 10 touchdowns this season.

The Cowboys have the second-best rush offense in the nation and are going up against a Red Raiders defense that ranks 79th in the country against the run.

Hubbard ran for 296 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against Kansas State in Week 5 and should go off again against Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are coming off a 55-16 loss to Oklahoma in Week 5 in which they surrendered 642 yards of total offense. Sooners QB Jalen Hurts and WR Ceedee Lamb dominated in the air, while running back Trey Sermon was a force on the ground. I expect OK State QB Spencer Sanders and wide receiver Tylan Wallace to follow in their footsteps this week, while Chubbard dominates the run game.

Texas Tech is without quarterback Alan Bowman due to a shoulder injury, while Sanders has been impressing for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are allowing just 24 points per game and should be able to limit a Texas Tech offense that struggled against Oklahoma without Bowman.

Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Texas Tech. They have the better talent on both sides of the ball and will use their dominant run game to win and cover the spread.

Pick: Oklahoma State (-10.5)

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