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2018 NFL Week 2 ATS Picks: Keep Betting Against the Bills

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has been named the starter for the Bills' Week 2 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season continues on Sunday, September 16th
  • See the three picks against the spread we are most confident in for Week 2
  • Receive ATS picks for the entire week

If you followed each of my three locks from Week 1, you had yourself a pretty decent week. The picks went 2-0-1, and based off $100 bets, would have won you $249.53 – returning $349.53.

Now let’s put that house money back into the pot for Week 2, as we decipher which teams showed their true colors in Week 1, and which performances not to buy into.

NFL Week 2 ATS Locks

Pick #1: The Bills Lose Big Again in Week 2

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
Los Angeles Chargers -8 (-105) -360 O 43 (-105)
Buffalo Bills +8 (-115) +280 U 43 (-115)

*All odds taken on September 14th

I am truly amazed that the Ravens loss last night has not resulted in the spread for the Chargers vs Bills moving a ton.

This Bills defense made Joe Flacco look like an NFL MVP contender in Week 1, and their offense’s incompetence made us wonder if the 2000 Ravens defense was back.

But Thursday Night Football showed us that Baltimore is still a pretty average team. The Bills are just that bad.

And if you’re holding out hope that things will be much better with Josh Allen under center, remember that Nathan Peterman beat him out in the preseason.

The Chargers are one of the teams whose Week 1 outcome/performance does not match the team they will be in 2018.

LA racked up 541 total yards, 418 of which came through the air, against the Chiefs last Sunday. Yes, their defense got exposed by the speed of Tyreek Hill, but Buffalo doesn’t have a player who can do the same things, nor do they have a quarterback who would be capable of delivering him the ball.

The Chargers win in blowout fashion.

Pick: Chargers -8 

Pick #2: 49ers Bounce Back; Lions Defense Gets Shredded

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
Detroit Lions +6 (-105) +220 O 48.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers -6 (-115) -260 U 48.5 (-105)

Jimmy Garoppolo was humbled in Week 1, as his perfect record as a starter came to an end in the 49ers’ 24-16 loss to the Vikings. Jimmy G completed just 15 of his 33 pass attempts and threw three interceptions, good for a lousy 45.1 passer rating.

But what was really encouraging was how well San Francisco’s defense played. They allowed just 343 total yards and only allowed two touchdowns – the third TD Minnesota scored was a pick-six.

I’m confident Garoppolo will be better in Week 2, when he’s not dealing with the best defense in the league, in one of the toughest places to play in the league. The 49ers offense will clean up their red zone issues – scored just one TD in four red zone trips last week – and find the end zone early and often.

I’m not confident the Lions defense improves in any way after an extremely disheartening showing on Monday Night Football of Week 1 against a Jets offense we weren’t expecting much from.

Pick: 49ers -6

Pick #3: The Saints Keep the Browns Win-less

Team Spread at Bovada Moneyline Total
Cleveland Browns +9.5 (-110) +320 O 49 (-115)
New Orleans Saints -9.5 (-110) -440 U 49 (-105)

The Saints let a lot of people down in Week 1, when they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs offense to go off for 529 yards (417 through the air) and 48 points in a losing effort.

I know this may sound weird, but Tyrod Taylor isn’t Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzmagic was extremely aggressive with the football. He had two touchdown passes of at least 50 yards, and never took his foot off the pedal.

That is exactly what Tyrod Taylor is not: aggressive. Cleveland may have similar talent at receiver to take advantage the Saints lack of a pass-rush (zero sacks in Week 1), but Taylor is a game-manager who will protect the ball and rarely lose a game for his team.

Brees and the Saints are going to come out pissed off and score another 40 points in Week 2. I don’t believe Cleveland will keep up.

Pick: Saints -9.5

Full Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Visiting Team Home Team Spread at Bovada Pick
Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers N/A N/A
Indianapolis Colts Washington Redskins WAS -6 IND
Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh Steelers PIT -4.5 KC
Philadelphia Eagles Tampa Bay Buccaneers PHI -3.5 PHI
Carolina Panthers Atlanta Falcons ATL -6 CAR
Miami Dolphins New York Jets NYJ -3 MIA
Houston Texans Tennessee Titans HOU -3 HOU
Arizona Cardinals Los Angeles Rams LAR -13 LAR
New England Patriots Jacksonville Jaguars NE -1.5 NE
Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos DEN -6.5 DEN
New York Giants Dallas Cowboys DAL -3 NYG
Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears CHI -3.5 SEA
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