2020 NFL Free Agency Odds – See Where All the Biggest Names Are Favored to Sign

Tom Brady
Tom Brady will play out the 2020 NFL season somewhere other than New England. Photo from @danwetzel (Twitter)
  • Hall-of-Fame QB’s Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are among the big names available in NFL free agency
  • On Tuesday morning, Brady announced on Instagram he will be continuing his career outside the New England Patriots organization
  • That, and other questions about NFL free agency are answered in the story below

NFL free agency officially gets underway on March 18th. But March 16th is the date that teams can legally tamper with free agents. And already, there’s some big talk there.

See where the top free agents are expected to land, including Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston, among others.

Tom Brady

Tom Brady is apparently about to buck the New England Patriots. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to land him.

For the longest time, the betting lines were suggesting that Brady’s next team wouldn’t be new at all, but Tuesday morning’s Instagram announcement all but assured his time in Foxborough is over.

That’s where Brady’s played since New England drafted him with the 199th overall selection in the 2000 NFL Draft. It’s the team he led to a record six Super Bowls.

Odds on Brady’s Team for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Team Odds at BetOnline on March 16 Odds on March 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -150 +125
New England Patriots +110 N/A
Los Angeles Chargers +600 +150
San Francisco 49ers +1000 +800
Las Vegas Raiders +1200 N/A
Indianapolis Colts +1800 +500
Chicago Bears +5000 +1600
Dallas Cowboys +5000 +2000
Miami Dolphins +5000 +1400

Odds updated Mar. 17

Now, though, it would appear that when it comes to the long-term relationship between Brady and the Pats, all bets are off.

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There’s been a seismic shift in the odds on this front. As recently as Feb. 28,  odds were -150 that Brady would stay with the Patriots.

This is the first time in his 21-year NFL career that Brady, 43, has been offered the freedom to negotiate with teams beyond New England, and he will now be taking advantage of the ability to pick where he will play until retirement.

Bucs Making Big Pitch

There are published reports that Tampa Bay is already coming at Brady with a significant offer. The Buccaneers were the NFL’s #1 passing offense (302.8 yards per game) and the league’s #3 overall offense (397.9 YPG) in 2019. That would certainly be appealing to a QB.

Brady’s preferred choice was reported to be the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. Brady was born in San Mateo, less than 20 miles from San Francisco.

The 49ers, though, have informed Brady that they plan on staying with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.  Garoppolo launched his NFL career as Brady’s understudy in New England. The Chargers are also expected to make a play for Brady.

For those who find it hard to consider Brady in another team’s uniform, remember that Johnny Unitas ended up a Charger and Joe Montana a Kansas City Chief. Brett Favre left the Green Bay Packers and landed with the (OMG) New York Jets, and later (can you believe it?) the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay’s hated rival.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-150)

Philip Rivers

The difference with Rivers is that the Chargers have already bid adieu to him. It’s a certainty that he’ll be landing with a new team. At the present time, the favorite to be that team looks like the Colts.

Odds on Rivers’ Team for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Team Odds at BetOnline
Indianapolis Colts -250
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Washington Redskins +800
Cleveland Browns +1200
Miami Dolphins +1200
Carolina Panthers +1600
Jacksonville Jaguars +1600
Chicago Bears +2000
New England Patriots +2500
Dallas Cowboys +3300

Indy’s been the chalk in this race from the outset. The odds of Rivers and the Colts pairing up are steadily improving. He was +140 to Indy’s next QB on Feb. 28. Today, the Colts are heavy -250 odds-on favorites.

Indy has made it clear that the team is looking at several options at QB. None will prove a better fit than Rivers.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-250)

Andy Dalton

After nine seasons, it appears Andy Dalton’s time with the Bengals has come to an end. Cincinnati holds the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and will surely be taking Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow.

Odds on Dalton’s Team for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Team Odds
Chicago Bears +300
New England Patriots +350
Los Angeles Chargers +500
Indianapolis Colts +600
Miami Dolphins +600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600
Dallas Cowboys +1000
Washington Redskins +1200
New Orleans Saints +1200
Carolina Panthers +2000
Jacksonville Jaguars +2000

While there are plenty of teams who would love to bring Dalton in as a reliable backup, the former second-round pick likely still has a chance to start for a team in the NFL.

Now that Brady has announced he won’t be returning to New England, joining the Pats would be a great opportunity for Dalton. He could also go compete with Mitchell Trubisky for the starting job in Chicago.

Jameis Winston

With the Buccaneers pursuing Tom Brady, among other quarterbacks, Winston’s time in Tampa Bay seems to be concluding. While not many doubt the former first-overall pick’s talent, his decision-making needs to improve in order to remain a starter in the NFL.

Odds on Winston’s Team for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Team Odds
Los Angeles Chargers +300
Carolina Panthers +400
Miami Dolphins +400
Washington Redskins +500
Chicago Bears +600
New England Patriots +600
Jacksonville Jaguars +800
Indianapolis Colts +1000
Dallas Cowboys +2000
New Orleans Saints +1400

With Rivers no longer a Charger, Winston’s best chance of earning a starting job is likely battling it out Tyrod Taylor in LA.

Melvin Gordon

After holding out for the first three weeks of the 2019 season, Melvin Gordon is now set to hit the open market.

Team Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +250
Atlanta Falcons +300
Miami Dolphins +300
Arizona Cardinals +600
Philadelphia Eagles +700
Indianapolis Colts +900
Denver Broncos +1000
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
Chicago Bears +1400

While there is no shortage of running back-needy teams, the recent trend of negative results coming from paying big money for a back may harm Gordon’s market.

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