After Winning First Game, Dolphins Still Favored to Have First Pick in 2020 NFL Draft Over Winless Bengals
- The Dolphins (+120) are the favorites to have the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft
- They are trailed by the Bengals (+300), Redskins (+500), and Jets (+650)
- The Falcons (+1800) have the toughest remaining schedule of teams listed in the odds
Despite notching their first victory of the season, the Dolphins (+120) are still favored to have the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The winless Bengals (+300) come in second, followed by the Redskins (+500), Jets (+650), and Falcons (+1800).
Odds to Have First Pick in 2020 NFL Draft
| Team (Record) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins (1-7) | +120 |
| Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) | +300 |
| Washington Redskins (1-8) | +500 |
| New York Jets (1-7) | +650 |
| Atlanta Falcons (1-7) | +1800 |
| New York Giants (2-7) | +3300 |
| Cleveland Browns (2-6) | +4500 |
Odds taken Nov. 6.
In the last month, the Dolphins’ odds of getting the top-overall pick have actually gotten slightly shorter. However, the race has a new runner-up. Despite being at +500 at this time a month ago, Cincinnati now sits second with a +300 chance to pick first in April.
FINAL: Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the @MiamiDolphins to their FIRST win of the season! #NYJvsMIN pic.twitter.com/ijIvaStjvS
— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2019
Falcons Have the Toughest Road Ahead
Of the teams included in the odds, it is the Atlanta Falcons that have the toughest second-half strength of schedule. They rank fourth in the league on that front, trailing only Baltimore, Carolina, and Dallas.
Two teams listed in the odds should see much better second halves. The Browns have the second-easiest schedule, while the Jets are the only team that has it easier.
Both teams have talented rosters (compared to the others on this list), as well as young quarterbacks working their way through some roadblocks. The second half of the season should be kinder to them.
Dolphins & Bengals Remaining Opponents
| @ Indianapolis Colts (5-3) | Week 10 | vs Baltimore Ravens (6-2) |
| vs Buffalo Bills (6-2) | Week 11 | @ Oakland Raiders (4-4) |
| @ Cleveland Browns (2-6) | Week 12 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) |
| vs Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) | Week 13 | vs New York Jets (1-7) |
| @ New York Jets (1-7) | Week 14 | @ Cleveland Browns (2-6) |
| @ New York Giants (2-7) | Week 15 | vs New England Patriots (8-1) |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) | Week 16 | @ Miami Dolphins (1-7) |
| @ New England Patriots (8-1) | Week 17 | vs Cleveland Browns (2-6) |
The two teams at the top of the odds, Miami and Cincinnati, have very similar remaining schedules. The Dolphins and Bengals rank 11th and 12th, respectively, in strength of schedule.
The Dolphins and Bengals will meet in Miami in Week 16, and that game has a very good chance of determining who has the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft. Both teams are likely to select a quarterback, so the loser of this late-season matchup may end up with the pick of a litter that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.
First Tua TD of the season ? pic.twitter.com/JmqwNEY3f2
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 31, 2019
What’s the Best Bet?
While Cincinnati and Miami lead the odds, the Atlanta Falcons at +1800 provide a ton of value. This team has been atrocious this season, and even though Matt Ryan will return from injury, they were losing when he was healthy.
Arthur Blank addressed the media following the game today. pic.twitter.com/bbk3NVzWA3
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 27, 2019
They haven’t played a single divisional game, and the NFC South is a tough division. They have both home and road games left against New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. The Saints are possibly the league’s best team, the Panthers are on pace to go 10-6, and even the Buccaneers are a tough out, sitting 18th in DVOA (ten spots ahead of Atlanta) despite a 2-6 record.
The Falcons other two games are a home date with Jacksonville, and a road trip to play the 8-0 San Francisco 49ers.
It’s not just the difficult remaining schedule, but also the performance so far. It has become extremely apparent that this team has given up on head coach Dan Quinn. Offenses are allowed to score at will. The Dolphins and Bengals currently lead the way, but at +1800, the Falcons are a valuable longshot to pick first in the NFL Draft.
With four years as radio host with The Ticket Sports Network and various written contributions to publications such as Fansided, Southbound and Down, and Last Word on Sports, Jake Mitchell comes to SBD with NFL, NBA, NCAAM, NCAAF and MMA know-how you can count on.
