AJ McCarron Free Agency Odds: the Next Browns QB?

• AJ McCarron is now an unrestricted free agent.
• Will he be the next QB of the Browns?
• Which other teams will pursue him?

Thanks to the ruling of an NFL arbitrator, the Cincinnati Bengals will need to look for a new backup quarterback, as AJ McCarron is set to become an unrestricted free agent when the 2018 league year starts on March 14. Prior to the grievance filed by McCarron, the former fifth-round pick was scheduled to become a restricted free agent.

Following the 2017 season, the pivot had not accrued four full seasons in the NFL, due to his stint on the non-football injury list during his rookie season in 2014. McCarron was arguing that he was in fact healthy enough to play, but the team still left him on the NFI list. The arbitrator sided with the three-time National Champion, and he is now deemed to have accrued the necessary four seasons to lose the restricted free agent tag.

Kirk Cousins will still be the most sought after QB in free agency. But there are a handful of QB-needy teams, and just one Cousins.

The only question left for McCarron this offseason is, where will he sign? Kirk Cousins will still be the most sought after QB in free agency. But there are a handful of QB-needy teams, and just one Cousins. Here are the teams who will have an interest in the Alabama product in free agency, along with the odds for each to sign him.

Cleveland Browns

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 18/7

McCarron is linked to the Browns through head coach Hue Jackson, who was serving as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator during the signal-caller’s short stint as the starter in 2015. There’s no doubt Cleveland needs a quarterback, after rookie, second-round pick DeShone Kizer threw just 11 TDs to 22 INTs in his 15 starts in 2017, posting a 60.5 passer rating.

With nearly $111 million in cap space heading into the offseason, there are certainly no money constraints in Cleveland. The issue standing in the way of McCarron to the Browns is the first and fourth-overall picks the team possesses. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield appear to have more upside than McCarron, and are all at least five years younger.

Drafting a quarterback hasn’t really worked out in the past for Cleveland, though, and there were rumors of both Rosen and Darnold not wanting to risk their careers with the Browns. So opting for a pivot with some familiarity to Jackson’s system and a simple desire to play now may be the Browns’ best move. It might not be a terrible idea to sign McCarron and draft a QB, either.

Of course, this would assume the organization is able to actually file the proper paperwork in time.

New York Jets

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 5/2

The Jets and Browns share a few similarities entering this hunt for a QB:

1. Both have a ton of cape space – the Jets will have even more after they officially cut Muhammad Wilkerson and his $20 million cap hit;
2. Neither has had a franchise QB in quite some time; and
3. Both are a little lacking in talent at the skill positions.

If Kirk Cousins’ truly only cares about winning, it’s unlikely he will be picking either the Browns or Jets. So expect the two to enter into a bidding war for McCarron, assuming Nick Foles is not available.

Arizona Cardinals

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 14/3

The Cardinals are entering the offseason with only about $22.5 million in cap space, and no QB with Carson Palmer retiring. Due to the limited cap space available, it’s going to be awfully tough for Arizona to woo Cousins, leaving them with two options:

1. Draft a QB, or
2. Pursue cheaper options in free agency.

The problem with (1), is they don’t pick until 15th-overall. So if they want one of the top four pivots, they’ll likely have to make a pretty big move up the draft board. The issue with (2), is that McCarron may not be a cheap option with so many teams in the market for a QB. 

Denver Broncos

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 6/1

Here is what John Elway’s offseason to-do list looked like before McCarron became an unrestricted free agent:

1. Convince Kirk Cousins to sign in Denver
2. Beg Kirk Cousins to sign in Denver
3. Kidnap Kirk Cousins and bring him to Denver
4. Draft a QB with the fifth-overall pick

I’d say “sign AJ McCarron” becomes 3b for Elway, who can’t be eager to try his hand at drafting another QB. McCarron would certainly come at a cheaper price than Cousins, allowing Denver to potentially avoid any big cap casualties or difficult restructuring talks that could come with signing Cousins. But the former Bengal doesn’t make the Broncos Super Bowl contenders the way Cousins would – just ask Denver’s head of recruiting, Von Miller.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 14/1

With an above-average NFL quarterback, the Jacksonville Jaguars would have beaten the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship.

Unfortunately, Blake Bortles’ $19 million fifth-year option (the team decided to pick up let year) becomes fully guaranteed if the QB cannot pass a physical before the start of the league year – March 14. And with Bortles going under the knife to repair his wrist shortly after the AFC Championship game, it’s unlikely he’ll pass that physical.

This likely eliminates Jacksonville from the Cousins sweepstakes, but with nearly $23.5 million in cap space, McCarron could be in play. The problem here is I don’t see McCarron wanting to enter a situation where he may have to compete for the starting job.

Minnesota Vikings

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 33/1

I understand why Minnesota would look into signing Cousins: he’s a definite upgrade over any of the three QBs they had on their roster last season. But I cannot say the same about McCarron. If they miss out on Cousins, I don’t expect the Vikings to dump Case Keenum for McCarron.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Odds to sign AJ McCarron in 2018 free agency: 99/1

HA!