Is There Value in Betting Rivers, Luck, or Wilson for NFL MVP?

• Entering the final week of the regular season, Patrick Mahomes is the NFL MVP favorite
• Drew Brees is the only other serious challenger at the moment
• Three other quarterbacks still have odds, but all of them are long shots. Are any worth a look?

This year’s NFL MVP race has become the wedding party from 2009’s I Love You Man.

Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees are Paul Rudd and Jason Segal, the two main characters throughout.

But rounding out the groomsmen are random’s that had one or two scenes in the movie: Philip Rivers is old man Mel, Andrew Luck is the one with the funny voice, Russell Wilson is Lou Ferrigno.

All of those side characters are still getting odds to win NFL MVP this season, even if their names are just there to round out the group. Do any of these long shots really stand a chance?

Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP

*Odds taken 12/27

The Favorites

Heading into the final week all eyes will be on Mahomes as he attempts to become just the third quarterback to throw for 50+ touchdowns in a season.

If he accomplishes that, many will be quick to point out that the only other two players to do that won MVP.

But even if Mahomes does nothing this week, he’s already become just one of five QBs to throw for 48 TDs and all four won football’s greatest individual honor that season.

Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 48 passing TDs. Drew Brees leads NFL with 13 QB wins and 115.7 passer rating. Avery time a QB has achieved 48 TDs OR a 13+ wins/115+ rating in NFL history, he has won MVP. This year voters will have to choose.

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 27, 2018

Because Mahomes’ argument is driven by crazy statistics and mind-blowing throws, the Chiefs seeding might not ultimately matter when it comes to the second-year QB’s case.

But a big reason Rivers climbed up the odds board over the last few weeks was because of the possibility Kansas City could lose the AFC West and homefield advantage. That possibility still exists.

Your Week 17 AFC playoff picture involves so many teams and scenarios, it requires multiple screengrabs to tweet out. pic.twitter.com/C46hHSzvt8

— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) December 25, 2018

It would take a monstrous upset by the Oakland Raiders (currently +550 on the moneyline) and a difficult road win by the Chargers (currently -300) in Mile High to steal the division.

Even if Los Angeles somehow jumped KC, Mahomes would have to have a real bad outing to help voters forget about the first 16 weeks when he was so dominant. And all those chips falling into place would only bring Rivers close to one favorite.

? @DrewBrees' Week 16 Highlights! ?#GoSaints #Brees4MVP pic.twitter.com/1e6qFAGcC1

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 24, 2018

As for Drew Brees, his case is closed.

He’ll play a little this weekend, likely just long enough to top 4,000 yards passing for the 13th straight season (he’s done so every year he’s played for the Saints), but nothing he can do this weekend will change how his argument is framed.

Brees’ season was the model of efficiency; his team owns the league’s best record and a Hall of Fame career like his can’t really end without winning one MVP award.

The Rest

Wilson’s Seahawks are locked into a Wild Card and nothing he does against the lowly Cards will change his odds.

Luck could have a great outing in the Colts de facto playoff game and lower his odds a bit. Rivers has the biggest chance to see his odds move if the Chargers somehow secure a one seed, but it still wouldn’t net him an MVP.

The winner will certainly be one of the two we’ve talked about all year. And if you somehow haven’t placed a bet on this yet, I would suggest Brees in what still feels like a toss up.