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Bears vs Lions Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Thanksgiving Matchup

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Nov 24, 2021 · 6:45 AM PST

Bears vs Lions
FILE - Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery (32) is tackled by Detroit Lions middle linebacker Alex Anzalone, back, and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (44) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Chicago. The Chicago Bears will once again be without star linebacker Khalil Mack, though they might have running back David Montgomery available when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night Nov. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski, File)
  • The Chicago Bears are 3-point road favorites over the Detroit Lions in their Thanksgiving Day NFL game on Thursday, November 25
  • TNF Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 5-4 ATS; 1-1 O/U; +0.59 units
  • Detroit is 4-13 straight up in its last 17 Thanksgiving games

The two worst teams in the NFC will square off in a Thanksgiving Day game as the 0-9-1 Detroit Lions play host to their NFC North rivals the 3-7 Chicago Bears.

The Bears have lost five games in a row. They actually have been worse than the Lions over that span. Detroit managed a 16-16 overtime tie against the Steelers in Pittsburgh two weeks ago.

Despite this fact, it’s the visiting Bears who oddsmakers are listing as the 3-point favorites in this game. The Bears are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games against Detroit. However, the Lions are 4-3 SU in their last seven Thanksgiving games against Chicago.

Bears vs Lions Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Chicago Bears -164 -3 (-110) O 41.5 (-115)
Detroit Lions +205 +3 (-110) U 41.5 (-105)

Odds as of November 24th at FanDuel

The kickoff for Thursday’s game is set for 12:30 pm ET. FOX Sports is carrying the broadcast from inside Ford Field.

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Bears vs Lions Line Movement

The Bears opened as the 3.5-point betting choice. However, with 54% of spread bets being placed on the Lions, that number shortened to three points.

Likewise, 54% of moneyline wagers are also backing the Lions. This is causing Chicago’s advantage to also shorten slightly, from -168 to -164.

The total is a low one for this game at 41.5 points. That’s not surprising when you take into consideration that in scoring offense, the Bears are No. 30 (16.3 points per game) and Detroit is No. 31 (16.0 ppg) in the NFL.

Who’s At QB?

Bears coach Matt Nagy has confirmed that starting quarterback Justin Fields (ribs) will be inactive for Thursday’s game. That will leave Andy Dalton at the helm for Chicago, backed up by Super Bowl winner Nick Foles.

Lions coach Dan Campbell believes that Jared Goff, his #1 QB, has recovered sufficiently from an oblique injury that kept him out of last week’s 13-10 loss at Cleveland. Goff at less than 100% will be facing a Chicago defense that’s made an NFL-leading 31 sacks.

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Bears vs Lions Injury Report

Beyond Fields, Bears wide receivers Allen Robinson II (hamstring) and Darnell Mooney (foot) are listed as questionable. Among defensive starters, left defensive end Akiem Hicks (ankle) and free safety Eddie Jackson (hamstring) are also questionable.

Despite Campbell’s assurances, Goff is still listed as questionable. Right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai (concussion) is also questionable. On the defensive side of the ball, left defensive end Michael Brockers (knee) and weakside linebacker Trey Flowers (knee) are questionable.

Bears vs Lions Betting Trends

No, the Lions don’t always win on Thanksgiving. In fact, they seldom do anymore. Detroit is 4-13 straight up over the past 17 Thanksgiving Day games. Overall, in 81 Thanksgiving Day games, the Lions are 37-42-2 (.469). Recently, they’ve lost four straight games. Detroit is also 8-10 in 18 Thanksgiving games against the Bears.

The Lions have gone nine consecutive games in which they’ve scored fewer than 20 points. That’s their longest drought of this type since 1988. Detroit is the NFL’s No. 27 offense, while Chicago is No. 31. Defensively, the Lions are 31st at stopping the run (140.5 ypg allowed) and 30th in scoring defense (27.3 ppg).

Detroit is 6-4 against the spread this season. That’s tied for seventh-best in the NFL. But the Lions are just 2-2 ATS as a home underdog. The Bears are 4-6 ATS this season.

Chicago won 24-14 at home over Detroit in Week 4. The Bears have swept the season series from the Lions in two of the past three years.

Bears-Lions Prediction

A lot of ink has been spilled debating the merits of betting against dome stadium teams when they play outdoors in the cold weather. But what about when cold-weather teams play inside a dome?

In the case of the Bears, betting Chicago indoors is a profitable pursuit. Surprisingly, Bears are fond of climate-controlled conditions. Chicago is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS inside domed stadiums since the start of the 2018 season. That includes a slate of 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at Ford Field.

Pick: Chicago Bears -3 (-110)

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