Best NFL Predictions for Week 4 – Expert Picks, Predicted Scores, Upsets & Betting Tips

• Compare computer and expert predictions for the remaining 15 games in Week 4 of the 2025-26 NFL season
• Find computer-generated score predictions for each game
• Check out the best NFL picks and upset predictions below

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Not only is Week 4 in the 2025-26 NFL season treating us to another Monday Night Football doubleheader, but it also presents us with our first game overseas, which will be played Sunday morning. This means we have four blocks of football to watch/bet on Sunday, and two staggered starts to enjoy on Monday as well.

On top of the schedule being spread out nicely, Week 4 also presents some fantastic matchups! The Ravens are heading to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs, where (barring a tie) one team is going to leave the game 1-3. We also get Micah Parsons heading back to Dallas when his Packers take on the Cowboys on SNF. Add in Eagles vs Buccaneers and Colts vs Rams, and this is setting up to be one hell of a week of football.

I have analyzed the remaining 15 games on the Week 4 slate and provided my picks for each, as well as my formula’s computer-generated score predictions. I have surfaced up my best bets, upset predictions, and also dropped in some info on injuries and weather that are needed before betting Week 4 of the NFL season.

Week 4 NFL Predictions: Expert & Computer Picks

If you don’t care to read any of the analysis below, and just want to take some of these picks / score predictions to the sportsbooks, please check the NFL odds first! Our tool provides the latest odds for every game and surfaces up the best odds/line available in your region. Every penny matters when betting on sports. You need to make every win count to its fullest!

As usual, these are just straight up (moneyline) NFL picks. You can, of course, figure out some picks against the spread with my formula’s score predictions, if that’s how you’d prefer to bet Week 4. I have used bold font on the picks where I disagree with my formula in the table.

I am coming off a bit of a rough week, going just 8-7. This brings my record for the season to 29-15. For the first time this season, my formula beat me, as it posted a 9-6 record, bringing its season total to 27-17. But as I have been saying, my formula’s computer-generated score predictions tend to get better and better as the season goes on and it compiles a bigger sample size on each team.

I break down our NFL predictions below, and highlight my favorite picks, the underdogs I am betting to win outright, and provide all the pertinent information you need to know to bet Week 4 in the NFL.

Expert vs Computer Picks

Here is a quick summary of the games my SBD formula and I disagree on:

• Buccaneers at Eagles
• Panthers at Patriots
• Jaguars at 49ers
• Ravens at Chiefs
• Jets at Dolphins

My formula predicts the Bucs will upset the Eagles, but I don’t think it’s factoring in the absence of Mike Evans well enough. Even if Chris Godwin does make his return, he hasn’t played in a long time and shouldn’t be expected to produce at a very high level in his first game back. I like the Eagles to continue getting it done.

I think the Panthers are receiving some credit from my formula because of all the garbage time stats they put up against the Cardinals in Week 2, and how bad Michael Penix played against them last week. I don’t think the Patriots are a good team, but I think they’ll be better than Carolina this week.

Similar to the above, I think the Jaguars’ stats are a little inflated as a result of their competition through the first three weeks. It’s clear the Titans and Texans offenses are not good, and they played against Jake Browning the majority of Week 2 when they saw the Bengals. The loss of Nick Bosa is big for the 49ers, but I think the return of Brock Purdy will help lift the Niners to victory.

The Chiefs have just been so uninspiring so far. They do get Xavier Worthy back this week, but I’m not sure he can solve all their problems. I like Baltimore to bounce back after giving away another game in Week 3. They have the far better offense in this matchup, and I’m not sure the Patrick Mahomes has the time to take advantage of Baltimore’s defensive deficiencies.

What we saw from the Dolphins in Weeks 1 and 2 was horrific. I think they have sorted some things out and are back to being the competitive team we have known them to be over the last few years. The Jets should get Justin Fields back for Week 4, but I think the Miami offense takes advantage of a bad Jets defense in this one.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

In my opinion, the best bets to make for Week 4 in the NFL are:

1. Ravens moneyline
2. Commanders moneyline

I discussed why I like the Ravens to beat the Chiefs in the previous section. But let me highlight some of the data for you quickly:

Ravens vs Chiefs Team Stats

As you can see, the Chiefs hold the advantage in all defensive statistics, while the Ravens hold a firm advantage in all offensive statistics.

Both of these teams have played two very tough opponents to open the season, and while the Chiefs were able to keep their games competitive, it never really seemed like they were in control of any of them. Baltimore, on the other hand, should probably be 3-0 right now. If not for two late-game Derrick Henry fumbles, the Ravens at least hang onto their lead against the Bills in Week 1, and I think they drive the field and beat the Lions last week.

The Ravens certainly have some issues on defense, but I do not believe Kansas City’s offensive line will give Patrick Mahomes enough time to exploit them. I think the Chiefs hit their rock bottom at 1-3 after Week 4.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 26, 2025 at 3:52am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

-145 on Caesars

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 2 picks

Betslip #1758858779089-5a21-295

My other favorite bet for Week 4 is the Commanders moneyline. I like Washington to win this game without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. This is firmly a bet against Michael Penix Jr and the Falcons.

Penix played a decent game in Week 1, posting a 93.2 passer rating, but he hasn’t been good since then. He was barely needed in their Week 2 win over the Vikings, only throwing the ball 21 times and not being overly efficient when doing so, and he was dreadful in their Week 3 blowout loss to the Panthers.

As long as Washington can contain Bijan Robinson – they are only allowing 3.73 rushing yards per attempt (8th-fewest) – I don’t foresee the Falcons being able to put up many points.

The Commanders offense looked just fine last week in their first game without Austin Ekeler, and they also had Marcus Mariota starting at QB. Mariota posted a 118.6 passer rating while not throwing the ball too much, and the mix of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols rushed for 161 yards on 26 carries. Yes, this came against the Raiders, but I don’t think the Falcons defense is much better, if at all.

My SBD formula’s computer-generated score predictions have the Bills as the team winning by the biggest margin in Week 4. It has Buffalo beating New Orleans by 21.8 points. But betting the Bills on the moneyline doesn’t present much value since their odds are so short. When considering the odds, the following predictions surface up as presenting the best bets from my formula: (1) Vikings moneyline, (2) Panthers moneyline, and (3) Colts moneyline.

Upset Predictions for NFL Week 4

My top upset prediction for Week 4 is:

• Colts over Rams (-3.5)

To be clear, these are two teams I really like this season. The Rams defense looks very good, and I think Matthew Stafford is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. However, the Colts have been so impressive through the first three weeks.

Matthew McEwan

Sports Betting Dime • September 26, 2025 at 3:30am

Pick

Odds

AwayTeam

Moneyline

NFL • Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams

160 on DraftKings

SCHEDULED • 09/28/2025

See all 1 picks

Betslip #1758857404247-5a21-448

Daniel Jones is running Shane Steichen’s system so well, as they lead the league in total net yards per play, and their offensive line has been great at opening holes for Jonathan Taylor. We saw Steichen’s system and the dominant offensive line make a really good Broncos defense look kind of average a couple weeks ago.

I think we’re going to see the Colts offense do the same thing to this Rams defense on Sunday. LA does not generate nearly as much pressure on the QB as Denver does. The Broncos defensive pressure percentage leads the league at 37.2%, while the Rams are still eighth-best but at a distant 23.1%.

The Broncos held the Chargers and Titans to just 3.6 yards per rushing attempt, but the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry against them. I appreciate the Rams are only allowing 3.8 yards per rushing attempt, but I don’t think they’ll be able to slow Indianapolis’ ground attack the same way, as we saw with Denver.

I like the Colts to continue to surprise us at this price!

The upsets my formula’s score predictions are calling for include:

• Buccaneers over Eagles (-3.5)
• Panthers over Patriots (-5.5)
• Colts over Rams (-3.5)
• Jaguars over 49ers (-3.5)
• Chiefs over Ravens (-2.5)
• Jets over Dolphins (-3)

The computer-generated predictions are saying there will be six upsets in the remaining 15 games. It went just 1-3 on the upsets it predicted last week.

Week 4 NFL Injury Report

I have set out the key injury concerns for each matchup, below,

Vikings vs Steelers (Dublin)

• JJ McCarthy (QB, MIN): Out
• Andrew Van Ginkel (LB, MIN): Out
• Alex Highsmith (LB, PIT): Out
• Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT): Questionable
• Joey Porter Jr (CB, PIT): Questionable

First-year starter JJ McCarthy was underwhelming in Weeks 1 and 2 (58.5 completion percentage, 301 total passing yards, two TDs, three INTs). Carson Wentz filled in admirably in Week 3 (70.0 completion percentage, 170 yards, two TDs, zero INTs). It’s unclear how much of a step down Wentz is from the higher-upside-but-inexperienced McCarthy.

Andrew Van Ginkel is out for the second straight week. Minnesota didn’t need him last week in a 48-10 rout of Cincinnati, which included five takeaways and two defensive scores. But Van Ginkel, a 2024 Second-Team All Pro, is arguably the best player on the Minnesota defense and the Vikings will inevitably miss their Sam. Luckily for Minnesota, Dallas Turner, the 17th overall pick in the 2024 draft, isn’t a big step down.

Like the Vikings, the Steelers will also be without their SLB in Alex Highsmith. Also like the Vikings, the Pittsburgh defense played its best game of the season last Sunday without their starting Sam (five takeaways in a 21-14 win at New England).

Jaylen Warren hasn’t been great through three weeks (132 rushing yards at 3.1 YPC). Former Eagle Kenneth Gainwell and rookie third-round pick Kalen Johnson should be ready to replace any production lost if Warren doesn’t suit up.

Joey Porter Jr, Pittsburgh’s starting right corner, has missed the last two games after a Week 1 hamstring injury. Pittsburgh has allowed 563 passing yards the last two games (against Seattle’s Sam Darnold and New England’s Drake Maye) and would greatly benefit from his return.

Commanders vs Falcons

• Jayden Daniels (QB, WSH): Out
• Terry MacLaurin (WR, WSH): Out
• AJ Terrell (CB, ATL): Out

Reining OROY Jayden Daniels will miss his second straight game, meaning Marcus Mariota gets his second straight start. Mariota was great in a Week 3 win, going 15-of-21 (71.4%) for 206 yards and a touchdown, while adding another 40 yards and a major on his feet.

Mariota won’t be able to lean on WR1 Terry MacLaurin, though. McLaurin, who had 74 yards on just three catches last week, is out with a quad injury.

AJ Terrell, Atlanta’s starting left corner, is out for a second straight week with a hamstring injury. Atlanta was embarrassed 30-0 by winless Carolina in Week 3, though the pass defense only allowed 121 yards to Bryce Young on 24 attempts.

Saints vs Bills

• Ed Oliver (DT, BUF): Out
• Matt Milano (LB, BUF): Out
• Chase Young (DE, NO): Out

Buffalo will be without arguably its two best defensive players, tackle Ed Oliver and linebacks Matt Milano. The good news is that they’re playing the winless Saints and shouldn’t need them. Buffalo is already 2-0 without Oliver this season, and 1-0 without Milano.

The Saints will be without edge rusher Chase Young (calf), who has yet to play in 2025.

Browns vs Lions

• Taylor Decker (OT, DET): Questionable

Taylor Decker has missed the last two games and didn’t practice at all this week. So, while he’s officially listed as questionable, signs point towards him not playing. The Browns aren’t the toughest opponent but their Myles Garrett-led pass rush is elite.

Panthers vs Patriots

• Xavier Legette (WR, CAR): Out
• Ja’Tavion Sander (TE, CAR): Out
• Patrick Jones II (LB, CAR): Out
• DJ Wonnum (LB, CAR): Out
• Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR): Questionable
• Tetairoa McMillan (WR, CAR): Questionable
• Jared Wilson (G, NE): Out

The Panthers are arguably in the worst injury shape early in the season. Two skill-position starters (WR Xavier Leggette and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders) and both outside linebackers (Patrick Jones and DJ Wonnum) are out, RB1 Chuba Hubbard and WR1 Tet McMillan are questionable.

Chargers vs Giants

• Will Dissly (TE, LAC): Out
• Mekhi Becton (OG, LAC): Out

Coming off a career-best 481 yards in 2025, TE Will Dissly will miss his second straight game for LAC. Justin Herbert didn’t seem to miss him last week, throwing for 300 yards in a 23-20 comeback win vs Denver.

Herbert will also be missing right guard Mekhi Becton, which could impact Omarion Hampton and the Charger run game.

Eagles vs Buccaneers

• Mike Evans (WR, TB): Out
• Baker Mayfield (QB, TB): Questionable

Tampa WR1 Mike Evans is out with a hamstring injury. Evans has 140 yards and a TD through three games. Making matters worse for Tampa, starting QB Baker Mayfield is questionable with a biceps injury. Mayfield is trending towards playing (he practiced ) but he’s clearly going to be less than 100% and down his top receiver.

Ravens vs Chiefs

• Nnamdi Madubuike (DT, BAL): Out

All-Pro tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is set to miss his second straight game. The Baltimore rush defense was massacred without him by the Lions last week. The good news for Baltimore is that the KC ground game has been anemic so far. Patrick Mahomes is the team’s leading rusher with 125 yards in three games. RB1 Isiah Pacheco has just 92 rushing yards through three weeks.

Bears vs Raiders

• Darnell Wright (RT, CHI): Out
• Grady Jarrett (DT, CHI): Out
• TJ Edwards (LB, CHI): Out

The Bears are certain to be down two key defensive starters, DT Grady Jarrett and LB TJ Edwards. RT Darnell Wright will also be missing from the Chicago offensive line, which could be an issue against a Vegas pass rush spearheaded by Maxx Crosby.

Packers vs Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL): Doubtful

CeeDee Lamb is officially listed as doubtful for the Cowboys but he appears highly unlikely to play. Lamb didn’t practice all week after leaving Dallas’ 31-14 Week 3 loss to Chicago early in the first quarter. Dak Prescott still passed for 251 yards on 77.5% passing without his WR1, but also threw two picks.

TE Jake Ferguson was the primary beneficiary of Lamb’s absence, catching 13 passes for 82 yards in Week 3.

Weather Impacting Week 4 NFL Games

The current forecast for the Vikings vs Steelers matchup in Dublin, Ireland, calls for temperatures just under 60° F with moderate diagonal winds and a 48% chance of rain. The weather shouldn’t have a huge impact, but both passing attacks could be slightly hampered. The total has already dropped three points in the Vikings vs Steelers odds, from 43.5 to 40.5 at FanDuel.

The Jets vs Dolphins game on Monday is forecast to have a 40% chance of rain and light diagonal winds. The wet conditions could negatively impact both deep passes and overall ball security.

What are the biggest upsets predicted for Week 4?

The biggest upsets predicted for Week 4 are the Panthers over the Patriots, Colts over Rams, and Buccaneers over Eagles.

Who are the top picks for NFL Week 4?

The top picks for NFL Week 4 are the Ravens, Commanders, and Vikings on the moneyline.