Bills vs Dolphins Odds, Lines, and Picks

• The Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins, trying to avoid an 0-2 season start
• Sunday Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 1-0 ATS; 1-0 O/U; +1.78 units
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The Buffalo Bills were expecting a lot of things this season — one of them was not staring at a potential 0-2 start.

Yet that’s what they face as they travel to Miami to take on a more-than-capable Dolphins team.

Kickoff goes Sunday from Hard Rock Stadium at 1pm ET. It’s expected to be 89 degrees and cloudy, with 70% humidity and 9mph winds.

The Bills are favored by 3.5-points in this all-AFC East battle.

Bills vs Dolphins Odds

Odds as of  Sept. 18th at DraftKings.

The spread originally opened with Buffalo as 3-point favorites, but 82% of the bets placed against the spread are on the home-team Dolphins.

On the moneyline side, however, 88% of bettors are taking the Bills, and 82% of all public bets are anticipating the two teams bang the over.

Let’s break down this matchup and find you the best bet.

Does Josh Allen Bounce Back?

While his statline was decent, Bills QB Josh Allen was not his assertive self in a 23-16 loss to the Steelers in Week 1 — certainly not the one pegged to challenge for NFL MVP honours this season.

QB Josh Allen: Obviously, that’s not how we wanted to started the season. We aren’t going to panic, there are still 16 games left. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/5cqUfw3b8z

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 12, 2021

He was 30-for-51 for 270 yards and one TD pass, while also adding 44 yards on the ground on nine carries. Allen threw one TD or less in just three regular season games in 2020.

There should be an emphasis on moving the ball down the field, particularly on first down.  The Bills threw the ball 20 times on first down against the Steelers, but totaled just 90 yards on those plays. That 4.5-yard average was far below the NFL average of 7.9 yards on first-down passes in Week 1.

Found the Stefon Diggs TD! pic.twitter.com/1XTSA4f1Hw

— Zach Stebbins (@ZachStebbs1) September 21, 2020

Perhaps a date with the Dolphins is what the doctor ordered. Allen shredded a pretty high-end Dolphins defense en route to a series sweep last year. He threw three TD’s in the Week 17 finale as Buffalo demolished the Fins 56-26. In Week 2, the Bills’ pivot threw for a season-high 417 yards and four TD strikes in a 31-28 win. His favorite target was Stefon Diggs, who piled up 15 catches, 229 yards and a score in two games.

In all, the Bills have beaten Miami five straight times, and run a current 6-0 mark within their division.

Tua Tested vs Patriots

After a so-so rookie campaign, Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa delivered a similar so-so Week 1 performance, though it was against a New England Patriots defense that usually frustrates and exposes young signal-callers.

That Alabama connection 🤞

Tua connects with Jaylen Waddle for his FIRST NFL TD 🔥

(via @NFL)

pic.twitter.com/FQhZBBitX2

— Overtime (@overtime) September 12, 2021

The second-year pro went 16-for-27 for 202 yards, throwing the go-ahead TD score in the fourth quarter to put the Dolphins up for good. He also ran in another score.

He started the Week 17 slaughter against the Bills last year. Despite throwing for a career-high 361 yards, Tagovailoa was also intercepted three times. He threw only two picks across his other appearances last year.

https://twitter.com/MereBSBuffalo/status/1438940167818125313

Tua will need support, and thankfully he’s got do-everything back in Myles Gaskin to take some pressure off him. He also has a nice receiving group that includes DeVante Parker — who totaled 169 receiving yards in two games vs the Bills last year — and rookie Jaylen Waddle, who caught the winning TD score in his first NFL game.

They won’t have the services of Will Fuller, though. After sitting out Week 1 due to suspension, the field-stretching WR  is unavailable against the Bills for personal reasons.

What’s the Best Bet?

Miami’s defense has been at the center of their turnaround under Brian Flores. Last year, the Dolphins gave up only 21.1 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

I don’t see the Bills’ O-line under siege like they were against the Steelers, who sacked Allen three times, but with two talented cover men in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, perhaps the Dolphins will be able to bring more bodies into the pass rush.

Defensively, Buffalo looked fine against Pittsburgh, surrendering 188 yards in the air and only 75 rushing yards. They allowed only 16 points, as their special teams surrendered a blocked punt and score. Even then, that type of  effort were usually enough for Allen to ride to wins a season ago.

The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, and look for the beat to go on in this one, with some offensive fireworks.

Pick:

• Bills -3.5 (1 unit to win 0.83 units)
• OVER 47.5 points (1 unit to win 0.91 units)