Bryce Young Now Favored to Go First Overall in NFL Draft Odds

• Bryce Young is once again the favorite to be the first overall pick
• Young was overtaken by CJ Stroud in mid-March after the Panthers traded up for the pick
• Check out the latest odds to be taken first overall in the NFL Draft

This year’s first overall pick in the NFL Draft has been a two horse race for quite some time. Bryce Young was a sizeable favorite after the college football season ended, and remained so until the Panthers traded up with Chicago to grab the top selection. At that point, CJ Stroud moved ahead of Young, but now the tables have turned again.

Number 1 Draft Pick Odds

Young is back to being the odds-on favorite in the NFL Draft odds, boasting his shortest price tag since we’ve been keeping track. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner is currently -220 to be taken first, giving him implied odds of 69% to be the number one selection.

Stroud checks in second at +160, but after him there is a gigantic gap until Anthony Richardson. Both Young and Stroud had excellent pro days last month, so the question becomes what’s changed to vault Young back into favorite status?

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Odds as of April 10th at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Young Has Just a Single Flaw

Young is nearly a perfect prospect. He’s incredibly smart, can make all the throws, is mobile and athletic, and brings a glowing resume to the pros. He was 23-4 in two seasons as Alabama’s starter, winning a Heisman Trophy in 2021, and throwing 79 touchdown passes.

He’s the most polished quarterback in the Draft, but he’s also the smallest. In fact, the moment he’s taken in the Draft he’ll become the smallest QB in the NFL at 5-10, 200 pounds.

His size, or lack thereof, was the only reason it looked like he might slip to number two. Few quarterbacks his height have found success at the highest level, with his most notable comps (Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray) boasting much thicker frames.

Peyton and @EliManning aren't worried about @_bryce_young and his abilities 💯

On The Clock premieres tonight at 8pm ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+. pic.twitter.com/j1N4dkr8jQ

— Omaha Productions (@OmahaProd) April 10, 2023

However, his height and weight didn’t prevent him from producing outrageous numbers in the SEC and his talent might be too much for Carolina to ignore.

Young’s ceiling is undeniably higher than Stroud’s, as he brings a more versatile skillset. He’s not afraid to take off when the pocket collapses, as evident by his seven rushing TD, and his ability to make plays off script has had scouts drooling for the past two years.

Sure, he’s not the prototypical QB that new Panthers coach Frank Reich has worked with in the past, but all reports out of Carolina now are that the team and staff love him. Young might not be as safe a pick as Stroud, but his dynamic play making give the Panthers the best chance of returning to the playoffs and beyond.

Stroud Safe But Not Sexy

Calling Stroud safe is not a knock on the Ohio State product. He too can make all the throws, and is the best pure pocket passer in the Draft. He’s arguably a plug and play starter, and someone who profiles to be in the league for a very long time.

Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. How do the #texans view each of them and what’s their mindset sitting at #2? My report on NFL NOW on @nflnetwork. pic.twitter.com/0XOPq8hK6I

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 4, 2023

The problem is, Stroud isn’t going to put a team on his back and take them to a championship. Can he be a Super Bowl winning quarterback if surrounded by elite talent? Sure, but his skillset suggests he’s not going to elevate the players around him like Young has the potential to do so.

When everything is perfect around him, Stroud can excel. When things break down, he hasn’t shown the ability to succeed out of structure, and he certainly won’t be dropped into a situation where things are perfect very often, like they were at Ohio State.

Richardson Just Too Risky

As for any longshot targets to be taken first overall, my suggestion would be to pass. The gap is too large between Young/Stroud and everyone else. Richardson got some buzz early in the Draft process, but no team in their right mind would take him over the other two given his inexperience and high bust potential.

Sticking with Richardson, not only will he not be one of the first two quarterbacks selected, there’s plenty of smoke out there suggesting he might not be the third QB taken either. Former Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is getting plenty of love as the Draft approaches, and multiple teams reportedly have him rated higher than both Richardson and Will Levis.

Keep an eye out for Hooker’s draft position props, and any wagers where you can get favorable odds that over 4.5 QB’s will be taken in the first round.