Upcoming Match-ups
  • Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2024 & many other NFL Draft props
  • USC QB Caleb Williams is currently the heavy favorite to be selected first-overall
  • Track the odds for NFL Draft props as we approach the 2024 NFL Draft in April

I have been tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks from the moment they opened. Among others, we will have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, odds to be a top 5/10 pick, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more as the year goes on.

The 2024 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 25 in Detroit, Michigan.

The NFL Draft odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change. Since there is a ton of information and NFL Draft betting odds on this page, you can use the anchors below to drop down to a specific section.

Odds to Be 1st Pick | 2nd Pick | 3rd Pick | 4th Pick | 5th Pick | Odds to Be a Top 5 Pick | 6th Pick | 7th Pick | 8th Pick | 9th Pick | 10th Pick | Top 10 Pick | Draft Position Over/Unders | First QB | First Non-QB | First RB | First WR | First OL | First Defensive Player | First DL | First CB | Position Totals | Player to Be Drafted By a Team Odds

NFL Draft Odds for First Overall Pick

USC’s Caleb Williams, who won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, is heavily favored to go first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams is being referred to as a generational talent, but one who has also posted big numbers in college.

Drake Maye always had the second-best odds to go first-overall up until early March when Jayden Daniels surpassed him. However, Caleb Williams is such a heavy favorite that it’s not really worth discussing the smaller moves that have happened behind him in the odds.

Odds to Be First-Overall Pick in NFL Draft

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Williams, Caleb
BetMGM
-10000
-20000
-10000
-10000
Daniels, Jayden
FanDuel
+7500
+7500
+5000
+3000
Maye, Drake
FanDuel
+9500
+9500
+8000
+2000
McCarthy, J.J.
FanDuel
+10000
+10000
+8000
+5000
Nix, BO
BetMGM
+15000
+15000
+15000
Penix Jr, Michael
BetMGM
+15000
+15000
+15000
Bowers, Brock
Bet365
+15000
+15000

Similar to last year, it is quarterbacks who are the top three contenders to be taken first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams of USC is currently the favorite with very short -1200 odds. A $20 bet on Williams would only stand to profit $1.67 and return $21.67. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye have the second and third-best odds, respectively.

The biggest surprise on the board right now is Marvin Harrison Jr getting the fourth-best odds to go first-overall at +1500. (He did have the third-best odds for a long time too.) The surprise isn’t a slight on Harrison Jr’s talent – he’s a fantastic prospect – but rather a result of only three wide receivers being selected first-overall in the history of the NFL Draft. It has not happened since 1996 when Keyshawn Johnson was taken first-overall by the New York Jets.

*NFL Draft odds are updated every 20-30 minutes from DraftKings, FanDuel, and other top sports betting apps. If you’re not already betting with DraftKings, don’t miss the best DraftKings promo code for new users. 

Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:

  • [March 12] Jayden Daniels had been closing the gap between himself and Drake Maye in terms of the second QB to come off the board in the NFL Draft, and while it is bigger news when viewing the odds to be the second-overall pick, it is worth noting Daniels has overtaken Maye for the second-best odds to go first-overall as well. Seeing the Commanders sign Marcus Mariota, a QB who can also run an offense designed for Daniels, was what tipped the scales in the LSU product’s favor.
  • [February 12, 2024] With both the college and NFL seasons now finished, Caleb Williams is breaking away from the pack even further in the odds to be the first pick. Williams’ odds have gotten as short as -1200.
  • [November 14, 2023] While Caleb Williams is still the heavy favorite to go first overall in the draft, Drake Maye has been steadily closing the gap. Maye’s odds were at +500 in the summer and have now improved to +275.
  • [April 28] Caleb Williams has opened as an extremely heavy favorite to be the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams has opened with -550 odds with Drake Maye given the second-best odds at +600.

Previous NFL First Overall Picks

Year 1st Overall Pick
2023 Bryce Young (QB)
2022 Travon Walker (DE)
2021 Trevor Lawrence (QB)
2020 Joe Burrow (QB)
2019 Kyler Murray (QB)

Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:

  • Notre Dame, USC, Georgia, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
  • Here’s the positional breakdown of the 90 total first overall picks: 35 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, six offensive linemen, three wide receivers, two tight ends, four linebackers, and one defensive back
  • The first overall pick has been a quarterback in five of the last six drafts, and seven of the last nine
  • No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
  • Three of the last six first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Travon Walker, the three most recent first overall picks, did not

Odds to Be 2nd-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Daniels, Jayden
Maye, Drake
McCarthy, J.J.
BetMGM
+1100
+1000
+1100
Williams, Caleb
BetMGM
+15000
+10000
+15000
Bowers, Brock
FanDuel
+15000
+15000
Harrison Jr, Marvin
FanDuel
+15000
+15000
+15000
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
FanDuel
+15000
+15000

When it comes to the second-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is currently held by the Washington Commanders, Drake Maye was as heavy as a -140 favorite to be selected with this pick. However, with the Commanders signing Marcus Mariota, a quarterback with similar skills/traits to Daniels and quite opposite of Maye, sportsbooks now believe Washington has tipped their hand for what they’ll do with the second pick. Daniels is now the odds-on favorite to go second-overall with odds as long as -170.

There was a brief moment on Friday (April 19), where Maye and Daniels were both given -115 odds to be the second pick. But that didn’t last long, as Daniels is now heavily favored again.

Odds to Be 3rd-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Maye, Drake
Daniels, Jayden
McCarthy, J.J.
Harrison Jr, Marvin
FanDuel
+3100
+3100
+1100
Nabers, Malik
BetMGM
+15000
+12000
+15000
Alt, Joe
BetMGM
+15000
+12000
+15000
Odunze, Rome
FanDuel
+15000
+15000

With the odds to go second-overall now leaning towards Daniels, it is Maye who has become the favorite to go third-overall to the New England Patriots. Maye is given -110 odds to be taken with the third pick. Though, many believe it may not be New England using this pick.

Odds to Be 4th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Harrison Jr, Marvin
McCarthy, J.J.
Maye, Drake
Daniels, Jayden
BetMGM
+1800
+1500
+1800
Nabers, Malik
FanDuel
+2000
+2000
+1800
Odunze, Rome
FanDuel
+5000
+5000
+5000
Alt, Joe
FanDuel
+7500
+7500
+6600

The Arizona Cardinals currently hold the fourth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and the odds favor them taking Marvin Harrison Jr. The Ohio State wide receiver is given -200 odds to be the fourth pick. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has the second-best odds at +420.

Odds to Be 5th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Nabers, Malik
Harrison Jr, Marvin
McCarthy, J.J.
Alt, Joe
Maye, Drake
FanDuel
+1600
+1600
+1400
Daniels, Jayden
FanDuel
+2200
+2200
+2200
Latham, JC
FanDuel
+2600
+2600
+2500

The Los Angeles Chargers currently hold the fifth-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and after releasing Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen, it makes a lot of sense for Malik Nabers to be the favorite to be selected with this pick. Nabers is given +230 odds to be the fifth pick. JJ McCarthy once again has short odds to be taken with this pick, as the Chargers very well could opt to trade back and try to address more holes on their roster.

Odds to Be a Top 5 Pick

This market would be much more popular with bettors if a sportsbook would allow you to bet either side (yes/no). While players like Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr are tough to bet, the fifth player to go in the top five is much more uncertain.

There are more players with odds listed than what we display above. You can click through to each sportsbook to see their full offering.

Odds to Be 6th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Nabers, Malik
Odunze, Rome
McCarthy, J.J.
Alt, Joe
Harrison Jr, Marvin
FanDuel
+1200
+1200
+1200
Maye, Drake
FanDuel
+2200
+2200
+2000
Daniels, Jayden
FanDuel
+2700
+2700
+2500

With the New York Giants holding the sixth-overall pick in the NFL Draft, Malik Nabers is the favorite to be selected. If the G-Men are going to stick with Daniel Jones / not move up for a QB, they’d be smart to bring in a true #1 wide receiver. Nabers is exactly that.

Odds to Be 7th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Alt, Joe
Odunze, Rome
Nabers, Malik
FanDuel
+1000
+1000
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
FanDuel
+1000
+1000
+1000
Fuaga, Taliese
BetMGM
+1100
+1000
+1100
Latham, JC
FanDuel
+1500
+1500
+1500
McCarthy, J.J.
FanDuel
+2000
+2000
+2000

Joe Alt is the favorite to be selected with the seventh-overall pick, which is held by the Tennessee Titans. Brian Callahan brings a much different offensive mindset than Tennessee has had under Mike Vrabel, and they spent big in free agency to provide Will Levis with weapons, namely Calvin Ridley. Sportsbooks strongly believe Tennessee will now make an investment to keep Levis upright.

Odds to Be 8th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Turner, Dallas
Latu, Laiatu
Odunze, Rome
Murphy, Byron
BetMGM
+1000
+1000
McCarthy, J.J.
FanDuel
+1400
+1400
+1400
Verse, Jared
BetMGM
+1500
+1400
+1500
Mitchell, Quinyon
BetMGM
+1500
+1400
+1500

The Atlanta Falcons hold the eighth-overall pick and Dallas Turner is heavily favored to be selected in this spot. The Falcons already had a very exciting arsenal of weapons and added Kirk Cousins in free agency. After recording the 12th-fewest sacks last season, it makes sense for Atlanta to add a great pass-rusher.

Odds to Be 9th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Odunze, Rome
Murphy, Byron
Verse, Jared
Turner, Dallas
Latu, Laiatu
FanDuel
+1000
+1000
Bowers, Brock
FanDuel
+1900
+1900
+1600
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
FanDuel
+1900
+1900
+1600

Wide receiver Rome Odunze is the favorite to be selected with the ninth-overall pick. The Bears currently hold this pick, and, in spite of adding Keenan Allen, would certainly be a good home for Odunze after they select Caleb Williams with the first pick. It is also very possible another team, perhaps the Buffalo Bills, trade up to acquire this pick.

Odds to Be 10th-Overall Pick

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Bowers, Brock
Fuaga, Taliese
Fautanu, Troy
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
FanDuel
+1000
+1000
Odunze, Rome
FanDuel
+1100
+1100
+1000
Latham, JC
FanDuel
+1300
+1300
+1200
Latu, Laiatu
FanDuel
+1900
+1900
+1800

Brock Bowers is heavily favored to be the tenth player selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. The New York Jets currently hold this pick and don’t really have a true receiving threat at tight end right now.

Odds to Be a Top 10 Pick

As I mentioned with the odds to be a top five pick, it would be really nice if a sportsbook would let us bet both sides of the top ten odds. Once again, you can click through to each sportsbook to see even more players with odds.

NFL Draft Position Over/Unders

Sportsbooks were a little slow opening up draft position over/unders this year, but we are now seeing over/unders for most of the players projected to be first-round picks, as well as a handful of second-rounders as well. We will continue adding more below as they become available.

JC Latham Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 13.5
Under 13.5

Quinyon Mitchell Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Under 15.5
Over 15.5

Terrion Arnold Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 15.5
Under 15.5

Jared Verse Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 16.5
Under 16.5

Laiatu Latu Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Under 16.5
Over 16.5

Brian Thomas Jr Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 19.5
Under 19.5

Cooper DeJean Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 22.5
Under 22.5

Bo Nix Draft Position

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Over 32.5
Under 32.5

Odds to Be First Player Selected at Each Position

We have seen sportsbooks open odds on who the first player selected at each playing position will be in the 2024 NFL Draft. Like above, we have cut down on the number of players being shown for each NFL Draft prop, but you can click through to the sportsbooks to see all the betting options.

Odds to Be First Quarterback Selected

Most sportsbooks have shut this market down now, as Caleb Williams is almost certainly going to be the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft, which would make him the first QB taken. You can see a breakdown of what the odds were below:

Caleb Williams is heavily favored to be the first quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft with -1200 odds. Rounding out the top five contenders to be the first QB taken are: Jayden Daniels (+700), Drake Maye (+850), JJ McCarthy (+3000), and Michael Penix Jr (+9000).

Daniels has seen a massive rise up the board. When these odds opened, the LSU product was given the tenth-best odds. He has now improved to the second-best, thanks to a strong final season in college as well as a couple college QBs deciding to stay in school for another year.

Odds to Be First Non-QB Selected

Marvin Harrison Jr is favored to be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft with -500 odds. MHJ’s odds have improved dramatically since the college season ended. The Ohio State product was the favorite with -135 odds in late 2023.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, an offensive tackle for Penn State, was given the second-best odds when this betting market opened. Jared Verse, a defensive end for Florida State, overtook him for the second-best odds later on in the college season, but Verse has slipped now too. Once given +300 odds, Verse is now getting +1100 odds and is fourth on the board. Joe Alt, a tackle from Notre Dame, quickly held the second-best odds, but he too has been overtaken, as Malik Nabers has risen up the board.

Odds to Be First Running Back Selected

Though Blake Corum may have been the most popular running back in the NCAA last season, it is Texas’ Jonathon Brooks who is the favorite to be the first RB taken in the draft. Brooks has overtaken Florida State’s Trey Benson in the week leading up to the NFL Draft.

Odds to Be First Wide Receiver Selected

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Harrison Jr, Marvin
FanDuel
-1500
-1500
Nabers, Malik
Odunze, Rome
FanDuel
+3400
+3400
Thomas Jr, Brian
FanDuel
+10000
+10000
Worthy, Xavier
FanDuel
+10000
+10000

Marvin Harrison is the heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver selected. Malik Nabers has the second-best odds.

Odds to Be First Offensive Lineman Selected

Joe Alt is the favorite to be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft. Alt is given -600 odds. Taliese Fuaga is given the second-best odds.

Odds to Be First Defensive Player Selected

Dallas Turner is the favorite to be the first defensive player selected in the draft. Quinyon Mitchell had the second-best odds for a long time, but Latu Laiatu has now taken over.

Odds to Be First Defensive Lineman Selected

The odds to be the first DL/EDGE player selected favor Dallas Turner with Latu Laiatu close behind.

Odds to Be First Corner Selected

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Mitchell, Quinyon
Arnold, Terrion
Dejean, Cooper
FanDuel
+2000
+2000
McKinstry, Kool-Aid
FanDuel
+3400
+3400
Wiggins, Nate
FanDuel
+5000
+5000

The odds say Quinyon Mitchell will be the first cornerback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Total Players Drafted in the 1st Round at Each Position

Sportsbooks have opened NFL Draft props on the total number of players taken in the first round at various playing positions. You can find each one below:

Total Quarterbacks Drafted in First Round

Though the odds favor both Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix not being taken in the first round, over 4.5 quarterbacks being taken in the first round is still -260. (To be clear, this does make sense, since it only takes one of the two being drafted to push this prop over.)

Total Offensive Linemen Drafted in First Round

Though not many offensive linemen are projected to go in the first ten picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, sportsbooks expect we will see a pretty good run on linemen after that. The total for offensive linemen taken in the first round is set at 9.5 and the over is given -194 odds.

Total Wide Receivers Drafted in First Round

Just about everyone is certain the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze will be taken very early in the first round, but sportsbooks favor under 6.5 WRs being taken in the first round.

Total Cornerbacks Drafted in First Round

The odds at sportsbooks heavily favor under 5.5 corners being selected in the first round.

Team to Draft a Player Odds

Sportsbooks have opened odds on which team will draft certain players. It is not a very lengthy list, but it does include some of the 2024 NFL Draft’s biggest names, including Marvin Harrison Jr, JJ McCarthy, and Brock Bowers among others. The players can be found below in alphabetical order.

Each player featured below has odds to be drafted by all 32 teams that can be found at the sportsbooks, but we cut it down to the top contenders for the sake of space.

Odds on Team to Draft Blake Corum

Blake Corum’s coach at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh, is now the head coach for the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh’s new team is the favorite to select his old running back.

Odds on Team to Draft Bo Nix

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants
New Orleans Saints
FanDuel
+1000
+1000
Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel
+2000
+2000

The Denver Broncos are currently the heavy favorites to draft Bo Nix, with the Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders possessing the second-best odds. It’s unclear if Denver would take Nix with the 12th-overall pick or try to wait.

Odds on Team to Draft Brock Bowers

The New York Jets are the favorites to draft TE Brock Bowers. They are well ahead of the pack with +145 odds. The team with the next-best odds is the Colts at +350.

Odds on Team to Draft JJ McCarthy

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New York Giants
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
FanDuel
+1100
+1100
Las Vegas Raiders
FanDuel
+2000
+2000
Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel
+2000
+2000

The Minnesota Vikings are heavily favored to draft JJ McCarthy with +170 odds. The Patriots are given the second-best odds at +380.

Odds on Team to Draft Jayden Daniels

The Washington Commanders are the favorites to draft Jayden Daniels.

Odds on Team to Draft Marvin Harrison Jr

The Arizona Cardinals are heavy favorites to draft Marvin Harrison Jr.

Odds on Team to Draft Michael Penix Jr

Player
Best Odds
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
Bet365
Las Vegas Raiders
Minnesota Vikings
Denver Broncos
New York Giants
Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints
FanDuel
+1300
+1300
New England Patriots
FanDuel
+1600
+1600

The Raiders are listed as the favorites to draft Michael Penix Jr.

Odds on Team to Draft Xavier Worthy

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are given the best odds to draft Xavier Worthy, the new record-holder for the fastest 40-yard dash. The Bills and Chiefs are given +500 odds, while the Dolphins are next with +750 odds.

States That Can Bet on the NFL Draft

Sadly, not every state with legal online sports betting allows betting on the NFL Draft. Here is the short-list of states where you can legally bet the NFL Draft:

  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa (shuts down 24 hours before the draft begins)
  • Kansas
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi (only at a casino)
  • Montana
  • Nevada (closes 24 hours before draft begins)
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Oregon
  • Tennessee
  • Washington, DC
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming

2024 NFL Draft Order – First Round

Pick Team
1 Chicago Bears (from Panthers)
2 Washington Commanders
3 New England Patriots
4 Arizona Cardinals
5 Los Angeles Chargers
6 New York Giants
7 Tennessee Titans
8 Atlanta Falcons
9 Chicago Bears
10 New York Jets
11 Minnesota Vikings
12 Denver Broncos
13 Las Vegas Raiders
14 New Orleans Saints
15 Indianapolis Colts
16 Seattle Seahawks
17 Jacksonville Jaguars
18 Cincinnati Bengals
19 Los Angeles Rams
20 Pittsburgh Steelers
21 Miami Dolphins
22 Philadelphia Eagles
23 Minnesota Vikings (from Browns & Texans)
24 Dallas Cowboys
25 Green Bay Packers
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27 Arizona Cardinals (from Texans)
28 Buffalo Bills
29 Detroit Lions
30 Baltimore Ravens
31 San Francisco 49ers
32 Kansas City Chiefs

The 2023-24 NFL season has concluded and we have the order set for the entire first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. You can see who holds picks 1-32 in the table above. The Chicago Bears currently hold the first-overall pick, while the Kansas City Chiefs are set to make the final pick (32nd) of the first round.

Odds to Have 1st Overall Pick in 2024 NFL Draft

To start the 2023 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals had the lowest NFL win total and the best odds to finish the season with the fewest regular season wins. This would suggest they were the favorite to get the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, Carolina’s struggles early in the season have moved them to the favorites to get the first-overall pick / finish with the worst regular season record.

Odds to have the worst record in the 2023-24 NFL season are updated every 20-30 minutes from FanDuel and other top sportsbooks.

Teams to Select First in Past Drafts

Year Team with 1st Pick
2023 Carolina Panthers*
2022 Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 Cincinnati Bengals
2019 Arizona Cardinals

Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:

  • The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
  • Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
  • The first overall pick has been traded six times, most recently in 2023 when the Panthers traded up for Bryce Young
  • A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last seven seasons
  • The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts

NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works

Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.

If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.

The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.

Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.


Archived NFL Draft odds: 2023, 2022, 2021

Author Image

After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.