Upcoming Match-ups
  • Get the latest odds to get the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, as well as the odds to be selected with the first overall pick
  • The Jaguars have clinched the worst record in the NFL and will be awarded the first-overall pick; Trevor Lawrence is the heavy favorite to be first player selected
  • See how the odds have changed throughout the 2020 NFL season for both

At SBD, we’ve been tracking: (1) the odds on which player will be selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and (2) the odds for all 32 teams to get the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change.

Jump to: Player Selected FirstTeam Selecting First

Odds to Be Selected First Overall in 2021 NFL Draft

Odds to Be No. 1 Pick

Player Odds
Trevor Lawrence (QB) -6000
Justin Fields (QB) +1000
Penei Sewell (OL) +1100
Zach Wilson (QB) +3000
Trey Lance (QB) +6500
Alex Leatherwood (OL) +10000
Devonta Smith (WR) +10000
Gregory Rousseau (DE) +10000
Ja’Marr Chase (WR) +10000
Jaylen Waddle (WR) +10000
Micah Parsons (LB) +10000
Walker Little (OT) +10000
Travis Etienne (RB) +15000

*Odds as of January 12

Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:

  • [January 12] Despite being knocked out of the College Football Playoffs in the semifinals, Trevor Lawrence is still heavily favored to go first-overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Justin Fields’ odds improved slightly, from +1100 to +1000, after two strong showings in the CFP
  • [December 29] Trevor Lawrence is a near lock to go first-overall, now listed at average odds of -5500. BYU’s Zach Wilson has shown up on the board for the first time, given +3000 odds to be taken with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 8] Though Lawrence’s Heisman odds are fading, his odds to go first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft remain at an average of -625, just slightly longer than the -750 he was listed at a month ago
  • [November 12] Fields’ odds have faded from +280 to +725, still the second-best odds on the board. Trey Lance of North Dakota State has emerged with +2250 odds, the fourth-best on the board.
  • [August 1] Justin Fields’ odds have improved from +300 to +280, while Penei Sewell’s odds plummeted from +400 to +900. The Ohio State quarterback appears to be the lone threat to Trevor Lawrence going first overall.
  • [April 25, 2020] Although he lost in the National Championship, Trevor Lawrence had a great sophomore season at Clemson, and he is now the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall in 2021.
  • [January 8, 2019] Trevor Lawrence is such a highly-touted prospect that he has opened with +100 odds to be selected first in the 2021 NFL Draft, which is still more than two years away.

Last 5 First Overall Picks

Year 1st Overall Pick
2020 Joe Burrow (QB)
2019 Kyler Murray (QB)
2018 Baker Mayfield (QB)
2017 Myles Garrett (DE)
2016 Jared Goff (QB)

Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:

  • Notre Dame, USC, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
  • Here’s the positional breakdown of the 85 total first overall picks: 33 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 15 defensive linemen, seven offensive linemen, three wide receivers, three linebackers, and one defensive back
  • The first overall pick has been a quarterback in each of the last three drafts, and five of the last six
  • No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
  • Each of the last three first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season

Odds to Have First Overall Pick in 2021 NFL Draft

Closing Odds to Get No. 1 Pick

Team Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars -212
New York Jets +195
Cincinnati Bengals N/A
Dallas Cowboys N/A
Los Angeles Chargers N/A
Philadelphia Eagles N/A

*Odds as of December 20

Here are some notes on the movement we’ve seen in the odds:

  • [December 27] The Jets picked up their second win of the season in Week 16, beating the Browns. The Jaguars, on the other hand, lost to the Bears. As a result, Jacksonville has locked up the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 20] New York recorded their first win of the season in Week 15, taking down the heavily-favored Rams. With the win, the Jets see the Jaguars overtake them as the favorites to get the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 8] The Jets remain the odds-on favorites to pick first in the 2021 NFL Draft thanks to an 0-12 start, but the Jaguars have short odds as well, only being one win ahead of New York
  • [October 20] After an 0-6 start to the season, the Jets have become the odds-on favorites to get the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [April 1, 2020] The Panthers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Football Team (Washington) have opened as the co-favorites to have the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft

Teams to Select First in Last 5 Drafts

Year Team with 1st Pick
2020 Cincinnati Bengals
2019 Arizona Cardinals
2018 Cleveland Browns
2017 Cleveland Browns
2016* Los Angeles Rams

*The Tennessee Titans were awarded the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, but traded it to the Los Angeles Rams.

Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:

  • The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
  • Four teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
  • The first overall pick has been traded five times, most recently in 2016 when the Rams traded up for Jared Goff
  • A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last four seasons
  • The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), and Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37) are the only three teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.