NFL Draft Odds: Track the First Overall NFL Pick Odds for 2024
- Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2024
- USC QB Caleb Williams is currently the heavy favorite to be selected first-overall
- Track the odds for NFL Draft props as we approach the 2024 NFL Draft in April
At SBD, we’re tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks. Among others, we will have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more as the year goes on.
The 2024 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 25 in Detroit, Michigan.
The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change.
Odds to Be 1st Pick | Odds to Be 1st QB Taken | Odds to Be 1st Non-QB Taken | Odds to Have 1st Pick
NFL Draft Odds on First Overall Pick
USC’s Caleb Williams, who won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, is heavily favored to go first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams is being referred to as a generational talent, but one who has also posted big numbers in college.
At this point, it seems like it would take some catastrophic injury or an absolute dud of a season from Williams for anyone else to overtake him as the favorite.
Odds to Be First-Overall NFL Pick
Odds to Be First-Overall NFL Pick
Player
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Williams, Caleb
|
-650
|
-
|
-
|
-300
|
|
|
Maye, Drake
|
+450
|
-
|
-
|
+250
|
|
|
Harrison Jr, Marvin
|
+2000
|
-
|
-
|
+2000
|
|
|
Daniels, Jayden
|
+2000
|
-
|
-
|
+1600
|
|
|
McCarthy, J.J.
|
+3500
|
-
|
-
|
+3000
|
|
|
Tuimoloau, Jt
|
+3500
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Fashanu, Olumuyiwa
|
+5000
|
-
|
-
|
+3000
|
|
|
Penix Jr, Michael
|
+3000
|
-
|
-
|
+5000
|
|
|
Alt, Joe
|
+5000
|
-
|
-
|
+5000
|
|
|
Ewers, Quinn
|
+5000
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Hall Jr, Michael
|
+5000
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Bowers, Brock
|
+6000
|
-
|
-
|
+6000
|
|
|
Jefferson, Kj
|
+6000
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
Verse, Jared
|
+4000
|
-
|
-
|
+8000
|
|
|
Latu, Laiatu
|
+4000
|
-
|
-
|
+8000
|
|
|
Turner, Dallas
|
+4000
|
-
|
-
|
+10000
|
|
|
Nix, BO
|
+6000
|
-
|
-
|
+10000
|
|
|
McKinstry, Kool-Aid
|
+7500
|
-
|
-
|
+10000
|
|
|
Latham, JC
|
+7500
|
-
|
-
|
+10000
|
|
|
Beck, Carson
|
+10000
|
-
|
-
|
+10000
|
Similar to last year, it is quarterbacks who are the top two contenders to be taken first-overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams of USC is currently the favorite with very short -400 odds. A $20 bet on Williams would only stand to profit $5 and return $25. Drake Maye, North Carolina’s QB, has the next-best odds at +275.
The biggest surprise on the board right now is Marvin Harrison Jr getting the third-best odds to go first-overall at +2000. The surprise isn’t a slight on Harrison Jr’s talent – he’s a fantastic prospect – but rather a result of only three wide receivers being selected first-overall in the history of the NFL Draft. It has not happened since 1996 when Keyshawn Johnson was taken first-overall by the New York Jets.
*NFL Draft odds are updated every 20-30 minutes from DraftKings, FanDuel, and other top sports betting apps. If you’re not already betting with DraftKings, don’t miss the best DraftKings promo code for new users.
Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:
- [November 14] While Caleb Williams is still the heavy favorite to go first overall in the draft, Drake Maye has been steadily closing the gap. Maye’s odds were at +500 in the summer and have now improved to +275.
- [April 28] Caleb Williams has opened as an extremely heavy favorite to be the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams has opened with -550 odds with Drake Maye given the second-best odds at +600.
Previous NFL First Overall Picks
| Year | 1st Overall Pick |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Bryce Young (QB) |
| 2022 | Travon Walker (DE) |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence (QB) |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow (QB) |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray (QB) |
Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:
- Notre Dame, USC, Georgia, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
- Here’s the positional breakdown of the 90 total first overall picks: 35 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, six offensive linemen, three wide receivers, two tight ends, four linebackers, and one defensive back
- The first overall pick has been a quarterback in five of the last six drafts, and seven of the last nine
- No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
- Three of the last six first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Travon Walker, the three most recent first overall picks, did not
Odds to Be First Quarterback Selected
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caleb Williams (USC) | -550 |
| Drake Maye (UNC) | +500 |
| Quinn Ewers (Texas) | +2200 |
| Michael Penix Jr (Washington) | +2500 |
| KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) | +3000 |
| JJ McCarthy (Michigan) | +3500 |
| Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) | +4000 |
| Jordan Travis (Florida State) | +5000 |
| Spencer Rattler (South Caroline) | +5000 |
| Jayden Daniels (LSU) | +5000 |
Caleb Williams is heavily favored to be the first quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft. Rounding out the top five are: Drake Maye (+500), Quinn Ewers (+2200), Michael Penix Jr (+2500), and KJ Jefferson (+3000).
Odds to Be First Non-QB Selected
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr (WR) OSU | -135 |
| Jared Verse (DE) FSU | +300 |
| Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT) PSU | +400 |
| Joe Alt (OT) ND | +600 |
| JT Tuimoloau (EDGE) OSU | +1200 |
| Dallas Turner (EDGE) BAMA | +1500 |
| Brock Bowers (TE) UGA | +1500 |
| Amarius Mims (OT) UGA | +2000 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) BAMA | +2000 |
| Michael Hall Jr (DT) OSU | +3000 |
Marvin Harrison Jr is favored to be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2024 NFL Draft with -135 odds. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, an offensive tackle for Penn State, was given the second-best odds when this betting market opened, but Jared Verse, a defensive end for Florida State, has seen his odds improve from +1400 to +300, good for second-best on the board.
2024 NFL Draft Order – First Round
| Pick | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | TBD |
| 2 | TBD |
| 3 | TBD |
| 4 | TBD |
| 5 | TBD |
| 6 | TBD |
| 7 | TBD |
| 8 | TBD |
| 9 | TBD |
| 10 | TBD |
| 11 | TBD |
| 12 | TBD |
| 13 | TBD |
| 14 | TBD |
| 15 | TBD |
| 16 | TBD |
| 17 | TBD |
| 18 | TBD |
| 19 | TBD |
| 20 | TBD |
| 21 | TBD |
| 22 | TBD |
| 23 | TBD |
| 24 | TBD |
| 25 | TBD |
| 26 | TBD |
| 27 | TBD |
| 28 | TBD |
| 29 | TBD |
| 30 | TBD |
| 31 | TBD |
| 32 | TBD |
The 2023-24 NFL season has yet to kickoff. Once we get into the season, we will provide some updated looks at how the 2024 NFL Draft order is shaping up.
Odds to Have 1st Overall Pick in 2024 NFL Draft
|
Team
|
Best Odds
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAR
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-200
|
|
|
NE
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+200
|
|
|
ARI
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+1100
|
|
|
WAS
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+9000
|
|
|
NYG
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+9500
|
|
|
NYJ
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+13000
|
|
|
CHI
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+14000
|
|
|
TEN
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
+16000
|
To start the 2023 NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals had the lowest NFL win total and the best odds to finish the season with the fewest regular season wins. This would suggest they were the favorite to get the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, Carolina’s struggles early in the season have moved them to the favorites to get the first-overall pick / finish with the worst regular season record.
Odds to have the worst record in the 2023-24 NFL season are updated every 20-30 minutes from FanDuel and other top sportsbooks.
Teams to Select First in Past Drafts
| Year | Team with 1st Pick |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Carolina Panthers* |
| 2022 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | Arizona Cardinals |
Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:
- The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
- Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
- The first overall pick has been traded six times, most recently in 2023 when the Panthers traded up for Bryce Young
- A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last seven seasons
- The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works
Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.
If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.
The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.
Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
