NFL Draft Odds: Track the First Overall NFL Pick Odds for 2023

• Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2023
• Ohio State QB CJ Stroud opened as the favorite to be selected with the first pick, but Alabama’s Bryce Young has taken over as the favorite
• Track the odds for NFL Draft props right through the 2022-23 NFL and NCAAF seasons

At SBD, we’re tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks. Among others, we will have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more as the year goes on.

The 2023 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 27 in Kansas City, Missouri.

The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change.

Odds to Be 1st Pick | Odds to Be 1st QB Taken | Odds to Be 1st WR Taken

NFL Draft Odds on First Overall Pick

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Ohio State’s CJ Stroud has opened as the favorite to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He is listed as the slight favorite over fellow quarterback Bryce Young, who is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.

However, Stroud and Young were being listed as co-favorites as of early December, and Young eventually took over as the favorite in early January.

Odds to Be First-Overall NFL Pick

*Odds as of January 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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Unlike last year, there are a ton of quarterbacks atop the odds to be the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Of the top six players on the board, four are QBs, including the top two. If you put a $20 bet on the favorite, Bryce Young out of Alabama, to be the first pick, you’d win $14.81 and return $34.81.

Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:

• [January 25] Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has been receiving a lot of buzz as the leadup to the NFL Draft begins. Some scouts have been rumored to like Levis more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. As a result, Levis’ odds to be taken first overall have improved from +1500 to +550.
• [January 10] Young remains the odds-on favorite to be selected first-overall after the Chicago Bears finished the regular season with the worst record, therefore claiming the first pick in the draft. There is already much speculation of the Bears preparing to trade the first pick with them already having Justin Fields in the organization.
• [January 3] In spite of CJ Stroud looking very good against the Georgia defense in the CFP semifinals, and almost upsetting the reigning national champs, Bryce Young has become the odds-on favorite to be selected with the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young’s odds improved from +153 to -118.
• [December 6] Stroud and Young are now listed as co-favorites to go first overall in the NFL Draft as we approach college football bowl season.
• [September 7] Bryce Young has started taking over as the favorite at some online sportsbooks. Stroud is still the favorite at DraftKings, but Young is atop the board at Caesars Sportsbook, and listed as co-favorite alongside Stroud at FanDuel.
• [April 29] Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud has opened as the favorite to go first-overall in the 2023 NFL Draft at +200 odds. Bryce Young is a close second at +225.

Previous NFL First Overall Picks

Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:

• Notre Dame, USC, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
• Here’s the positional breakdown of the 86 total first overall picks: 34 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, seven offensive linemen, three wide receivers, three linebackers, and one defensive back
• The first overall pick has been a quarterback in four of the last five drafts, and six of the last eight
• No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
• Three of the last five first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker, the most recent first overall picks, did not

Odds to Be First Quarterback Selected in NFL Draft

Odds as of September 7 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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DraftKings Sportsbook is currently the only betting app with this prop available. This is why you’re seeing a discrepancy between the odds to go first overall above from Caesars Sportsbook and the odds to be the first QB taken here—DraftKings lists Stroud as their favorite to go first overall as well.

Odds to Be First Wide Receiver Selected in NFL Draft

Odds as of January 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Odds to be the first WR taken in the 2023 NFL Draft opened in late-January. Jordan Addison out of USC opened as the favorite with +120 odds. Not far behind him on the board is Quentin Johnston (TCU) at +150 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) at +250.

2023 NFL Draft Order – First Round

The draft order for teams who did not make the playoffs was set after the regular season ended on January 8. We also know where all the Wild Card and Divisional Round losers will pick as well. We will update the final four picks above after the Conference Championships and Super Bowl.

You will notice there are only 31 picks in the first-round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but there are 32 teams in the NFL. This is because the Miami Dolphins forfeited their own first-round pick after an investigation showed the team violated league policies around the integrity of the game—they spoke with Tom Brady and Sean Payton while both were still under contract. This is very important to keep in mind when betting on players to be taken in the first round of the draft. Be sure you read the market carefully, as there will be a difference between the first round and the first 32 picks.

Odds to Select First Overall in 2022 NFL Draft

[Graph to come shortly]

Odds to Pick First in NFL Draft

Odds as of September 7.

To start the 2022 NFL season, the Houston Texans had the lowest NFL win total and the best odds to finish the season with the fewest regular season wins. This would suggest they are the favorite to get the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft at this point.

Teams to Select First in Past Drafts

Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:

• The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
• Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
• The first overall pick has been traded five times, most recently in 2016 when the Rams traded up for Jared Goff
• A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last six seasons
• The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts

NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works

Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.

If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.

The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.

Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.

Archived NFL Draft odds: 2022, 2021