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  • Get the latest NFL Draft odds, ranging from who will be selected first overall to the first player taken at each position
  • Trevor Lawrence is heavily favored to be taken by the Jaguars with the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • See how the odds have changed leading up to the draft

At SBD, we’ve been tracking: (1) the odds on which player will be selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and (2) the odds for all 32 teams to get the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft for nearly a year now. We’ve also started tracking the odds to be the first player taken at each position, the second-overall pick, third-overall pick, and all other NFL Draft odds now that we’re nearing the 2021 NFL Draft.

The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change.

Jump to: Player Selected First | 2nd/3rd/4th/5th Overall Pick | First Player Selected at Each Position | Team Selecting First

Odds to Be Selected First Overall in 2021 NFL Draft

Odds to Be No. 1 Pick

Player Odds at DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence (QB) -10000
Zach Wilson (QB) +1600
Justin Fields (QB) +3300
Penei Sewell (OL) +6600
Trey Lance (QB) +8000
Mac Jones (QB) +10000
Ja’Marr Chase (WR) +20000
Kyle Pitts (TE) +20000
Rashawn Slater (OT) +20000
Micah Parsons (LB) +20000

*Odds as of April 15

Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:

  • [March 10] Zach Wilson is the clear second choice in the odds to be taken first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, but it’s a foregone conclusion that Trevor Lawrence will go first
  • [February 23] Some sportsbooks now give BYU’s Zach Wilson the second-best odds to be taken first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, though Lawrence is still the heavy favorite. Justin Fields still has the second-best average odds
  • [January 12] Despite being knocked out of the College Football Playoffs in the semifinals, Trevor Lawrence is still heavily favored to go first-overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Justin Fields’ odds improved slightly, from +1100 to +1000, after two strong showings in the CFP
  • [December 29] Trevor Lawrence is a near lock to go first-overall, now listed at average odds of -5500. BYU’s Zach Wilson has shown up on the board for the first time, given +3000 odds to be taken with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 8] Though Lawrence’s Heisman odds are fading, his odds to go first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft remain at an average of -625, just slightly longer than the -750 he was listed at a month ago
  • [November 12] Fields’ odds have faded from +280 to +725, still the second-best odds on the board. Trey Lance of North Dakota State has emerged with +2250 odds, the fourth-best on the board.
  • [August 1] Justin Fields’ odds have improved from +300 to +280, while Penei Sewell’s odds plummeted from +400 to +900. The Ohio State quarterback appears to be the lone threat to Trevor Lawrence going first overall.
  • [April 25, 2020] Although he lost in the National Championship, Trevor Lawrence had a great sophomore season at Clemson, and he is now the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall in 2021.
  • [January 8, 2019] Trevor Lawrence is such a highly-touted prospect that he has opened with +100 odds to be selected first in the 2021 NFL Draft, which is still more than two years away.

Last 5 First Overall Picks

Year 1st Overall Pick
2020 Joe Burrow (QB)
2019 Kyler Murray (QB)
2018 Baker Mayfield (QB)
2017 Myles Garrett (DE)
2016 Jared Goff (QB)

Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:

  • Notre Dame, USC, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
  • Here’s the positional breakdown of the 85 total first overall picks: 33 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 15 defensive linemen, seven offensive linemen, three wide receivers, three linebackers, and one defensive back
  • The first overall pick has been a quarterback in each of the last three drafts, and five of the last six
  • No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
  • Each of the last three first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season

Odds to Be 2nd/3rd/4th/5th Overall Pick in NFL Draft

Odds to Be Taken in Top 5

Player Odds to Be No. 2 Odds to Be No. 3 Odds to Be No. 4 Odds to Be No. 5
Zach Wilson (QB) -5000 +2500 +500
Justin Fields (QB) +1600 -125 +230
Trey Lance (QB) +3300 +350 +650
Trevor Lawrence (QB) +3300 +10000
Kyle Pitts (TE) +3300 +4000
Mac Jones (QB) +5000 +120
Penei Sewell (OL) +5000 +10000 +115 -135
Ja’Marr Chase (WR) +10000 +8000
Rashawn Slater (OT) +10000 +50000 +1100
Micah Parsons (LB) +10000 +25000 +2000 +1100
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB) +10000 +100000
Devonta Smith (WR) +25000 +50000 +900
Jaylen Waddle (WR) +25000 +50000
Patrick Surtain II (CB) +25000 +25000 +2000
Najee Harris (RB) +50000 +50000
Kwity Paye (DE) +50000 +50000

*Odds for 2nd and 3rd picks as of April 15, 4th and 5th as of March 24

Here are some notes on the odds movement:

  • [April 15] After Mac Jones became the favorite to be taken third overall for one week, the odds are swinging back in Justin Fields’ favor to be selected by the 49ers at no. 3
  • [April 8] Zach Wilson has become a near lock to be taken second overall, while Mac Jones is now the odds-on favorite to be taken third overall
  • [March 29] With news of 49ers’, who just traded up to acquire the third overall pick, GM John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan attending Mac Jones’ second Pro Day, the Bama quarterback has gone from having no odds to be taken third overall to the favorite
  • [March 10] Ja’Marr Chase’s odds to be taken third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft have recovered, as he’s back to +250, the second-best odds on the board
  • [February 22] Zach Wilson is now the odds-on favorite to be taken second overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, while Justin Fields has emerged as the favorite to be taken third overall
  • [February 12] Zach Wilson has opened as the favorite to be taken no. 2 in the 2021 NFL Draft; Devonta Smith is the slight favorite to be taken third overall, with fellow wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase close on his tail

Odds to Be First Player Taken at Each Position

First at Each Position Odds

Running Back Odds to Be 1st RB Wide Receiver Odds to Be 1st WR Offensive Lineman Odds to Be 1st OL Corner Odds to Be 1st CB Safety Odds to Be 1st S Defensive Lineman Odds to Be 1st DL Linebacker Odds to Be 1st LB Non-QB Odds to Be 1st Non-QB
Najee Harris -150 Ja’Marr Chase -400 Penei Sewell -715 Patrick Surtain II -250 Trevon Moehrig -400 Kwity Paye -110 Micah Parsons -400 Kyle Pitts +150
Travis Etienne +200 Devonta Smith +500 Rashawn Slater +350 Jaycee Horn +225 Jevon Holland +400 Jaelan Phillips +150 Jeremiah-Owusu-Koramoah +700 Penei Sewell +150
Javonte Williams +400 Jaylen Waddle +500 Christian Darrisaw +3300 Caleb Farley +800 Richie Grant +500 Jayson Oweh +700 Azeez Ojulari +700 Ja’Marr Chase +250
Michael Carter +4000 Rashod Bateman +3000 Alijah Vera-Tucker +3300 Greg Newsome +2500 Caden Sterns +3300 Christian Barmore +800 Jamin Davis +1000 Rashawn Slater +1600
Kenneth Gainwell +4000 Terrace Marshall Jr +4000 Teven Jenkins +5000 Eric Stokes +2500 Andre Cisco +4000 Gregory Rousseau +800 Zaven Collins +1600 Micah Parsons +2000
Trey Sermon +4000 Rondale Moore +5000 Sam Cosmi +10000 Asante Samuel Jr +3300 Hamsah Nasirildeen +5000 Ronnie Perkins +2000 Joseph Ossai +1600 Patrick Surtain II +2000
Chuba Hubbard +5000 Kadarius Toney +6600 Jalen Mayfield +10000 Kelvin Joseph +3300 Paris Ford +12500 Levi Onwuzurike +3300 Nick Bolton +4000 Kwity Paye +3300

*Odds as of April 8

Here are some notes on the movement:

  • [April 8] Ja’Marr Chase is now the heavy favorite to be the first wide receiver taken in the 2021 NFL Draft; Patrick Surtain II has leaped Caleb Farley, as has Jaycee Horn, in the odds to be the first corner taken; Kyle Pitts and Penei Sewell are the co-favorites to be the first non-quarterback taken in the draft.
  • [March 10] Najee Harris has overtaken Travis Etienne as the favorite to be the first running back taken in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [February 22] Travis Etienne has opened as the odds-on favorite to be the first running back taken, while Ja’Marr Chase is the odds-on favorite to be the first wide receiver taken in spite of Devonta Smith’s Heisman season

Second/Third QB Taken Odds

Quarterback Odds to Be 2nd QB Odds to Be 3rd QB
Zach Wilson -400 +150
Justin Fields +250 +125
Trey Lance +333 +175
Mac Jones +1600 +600
Trevor Lawrence +3500 +5000
Kyle Trask +6600 +5000

*Odds to be 2nd QB as of March 10, 3rd QB as of February 23

Here are some notes on the movement:

  • [February 22] Zach Wilson has now become the odds-on favorite to be the second quarterback taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, while Trey Lance has fallen further behind Justin Fields for the second-best odds
  • [February 12] Zach Wilson has opened as the favorite to be the second quarterback taken in the NFL Draft. Justin Fields and Trey Lance are the co-favorites to be the third QB taken

Odds to Have First Overall Pick in 2021 NFL Draft

Closing Odds to Get No. 1 Pick

Team Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars -212
New York Jets +195
Cincinnati Bengals N/A
Dallas Cowboys N/A
Los Angeles Chargers N/A
Philadelphia Eagles N/A

*Odds as of December 20

Here are some notes on the movement we’ve seen in the odds:

  • [December 27] The Jets picked up their second win of the season in Week 16, beating the Browns. The Jaguars, on the other hand, lost to the Bears. As a result, Jacksonville has locked up the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 20] New York recorded their first win of the season in Week 15, taking down the heavily-favored Rams. With the win, the Jets see the Jaguars overtake them as the favorites to get the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [December 8] The Jets remain the odds-on favorites to pick first in the 2021 NFL Draft thanks to an 0-12 start, but the Jaguars have short odds as well, only being one win ahead of New York
  • [October 20] After an 0-6 start to the season, the Jets have become the odds-on favorites to get the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft
  • [April 1, 2020] The Panthers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Football Team (Washington) have opened as the co-favorites to have the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft

Teams to Select First in Last 5 Drafts

Year Team with 1st Pick
2020 Cincinnati Bengals
2019 Arizona Cardinals
2018 Cleveland Browns
2017 Cleveland Browns
2016* Los Angeles Rams

*The Tennessee Titans were awarded the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, but traded it to the Los Angeles Rams.

Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:

  • The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
  • Four teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
  • The first overall pick has been traded five times, most recently in 2016 when the Rams traded up for Jared Goff
  • A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last four seasons
  • The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), and Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37) are the only three teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.