NFL Draft Odds: Track the First Overall NFL Pick Odds for 2023
- Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2023
- Alabama QB Bryce Young is currently the favorite to be selected first-overall by the Carolina Panthers
- Track the odds for NFL Draft props as we approach the 2023 NFL Draft in April
At SBD, we’re tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks. Among others, we will have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more as the year goes on.
The 2023 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 27 in Kansas City, Missouri.
For more NFL Draft coverage check out our NFL Draft analysis and picks here:
- Opening 2024 NFL Draft Odds Favor Caleb Williams at -550 as Number 1 Pick
Round 2 NFL Draft Odds – Who Will Draft Will Levis & Hendon Hooker?
The odds in the graphs below are an average from multiple sportsbooks and will be updated with every major change.
Odds to Be 1st Pick | Odds to Be a Top Pick | Draft Position Over/Unders | Odds to Be 2nd QB Taken | Odds to Be 1st RB Taken | Odds to Be 1st WR Taken | Odds to Be 1st TE Taken | Odds to Be 1st OL Taken | Odds to be 1st Defensive Player Taken | Odds to be First LB Taken | Odds to Be 1st CB Taken | Odds to Make 1st Pick
NFL Draft Odds on First Overall Pick
Alabama’s Bryce Young is the heavy odds-on favorite to be selected with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ohio State’s CJ Stroud opened as the favorite, saw Young take over as the favorite in early January, took back over as the favorite after the Panthers traded up for the first pick, but has now seen Young take back the top spot just a few weeks away from the draft.
Sportsbooks must have felt the Panthers were big fans of Stroud, but some potential insider info obviously had them doubting that in early April. Bryce Young canceling his other draft meetings after visiting with the Panthers has now turned him into an extremely heavy favorite.
Odds to Be First-Overall NFL Pick
|Bryce Young (QB) BAMA||-5000|
|CJ Stroud (QB) OSU||+1200|
|Will Levis (QB) UK||+1200|
|Anthony Richardson (QB) FLA||+5000|
|Will Anderson (EDGE) BAMA||+10000|
|Jalen Carter (DT) UGA||+10000|
|Tyree Wilson (EDGE) TAM||+10000|
|Paris Johnson Jr (OT) OSU||+10000|
|Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) OSU||+25000|
|Peter Skoronski (OT) NU||+25000|
Unlike last year, there are a ton of quarterbacks atop the odds to be the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. All of the top four options are QBs. The favorite right now is Alabama’s Bryce Young, who is given -5000 odds to go first overall. If you put a $20 bet on Stroud to be the first pick, you’d only win $0.40 and return $20.40.
In a surprise turn of events in the final couple days leading up to the NFL Draft, the second-best odds to be the first-overall pick belonged to Will Levis. The Kentucky product saw his odds go from +4000 to +425 on Tuesday morning but has now faded back to +1200, the same odds as CJ Stroud. Rounding out the top five are Anthony Richardson (+5000), and Will Anderson (+10000).
*Odds as of April 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re not already betting with DraftKings, don’t miss the best DraftKings promo code for new users.
Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:
- [April 27] On draft day, Bryce Young’s odds to be the first-overall pick have gone from -1600 to -5000. Sportsbooks are saying it is a near certainty that the Panthers draft him with the first pick.
- [April 25] Just two days prior to the NFL Draft, we have seen major movement behind the favorite, Bryce Young, to go first-overall. We’re not sure how much of this is due to a Reddit thread, where someone claimed they just spoke to Levis and he was told the Panthers would be taking him, but the move was quick. Levis’ odds went from +4000 all the way down to +400.
- [April 17] After meeting with the Panthers, who hold the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young has canceled all his other draft meetings. This has led to speculation that Carolina informed Young they would be taking him, and the Alabama QB’s odds have gone from -120 to -1400 as a result. CJ Stroud has faded from -105 to +700, which are still the second-best odds to go first-overall.
- [April 8] Bryce Young has taken back over as the favorite to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The move comes without any direct cause in the news. This is likely the result of some insider info. Young’s odds improved from +240 to -120, while CJ Stroud, who was the favorite prior to Easter weekend, slipped from -330 to -105. With both Young and Stroud having short odds, the result has been Anthony Richardson’s odds plummeting from +900 to +2000.
- [March 23] A little over a month away from the NFL Draft we have seen some of the Anthony Richardson hype start to cool. Richardson’s odds to be taken with the first pick went from +450 to +750, still third-best on the board, though.
- [March 10] The Carolina Panthers have traded with the Bears for the first-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. After the trade was announced, CJ Stroud’s odds to be selected first went from +300 to -425, making him the overwhelming favorite. Bruce Young’s odds faded from -200 to +380. Basically every defensive player saw their odds fade dramatically due to the likelihood of the Panthers only making this move if they are going to get a QB.
- [March 6] After an outstanding performance at the NFL Combine, Anthony Richardson’s odds to be taken first overall have continued improving. Richardson went from +650 to +350 now, tying him with CJ Stroud for the second-best odds on the board, only behind Bryce Young.
- [March 2] Jalen Carter’s odds to go first overall have plummeted from +850 to +2500 after the defensive lineman was arrested on charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a former Bulldogs teammate and staff member. As a result, edge rusher Will Anderson saw his odds improve from +1200 to +650. Anderson took over the best odds among non-QBs to go first overall.
- [February 24] Florida QB Anthony Richardson has seen his odds to be taken first overall make massive moves lately. As recently as mid-February, Richardson’s odds were +10000. Those odds have been steadily improving in the second half of February, now landing at just +750, which are the fourth-best odds on the board.
- [January 25] Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has been receiving a lot of buzz as the leadup to the NFL Draft begins. Some scouts have been rumored to like Levis more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. As a result, Levis’ odds to be taken first overall have improved from +1500 to +550.
- [January 10] Young remains the odds-on favorite to be selected first-overall after the Chicago Bears finished the regular season with the worst record, therefore claiming the first pick in the draft. There is already much speculation of the Bears preparing to trade the first pick with them already having Justin Fields in the organization.
- [January 3] In spite of CJ Stroud looking very good against the Georgia defense in the CFP semifinals, and almost upsetting the reigning national champs, Bryce Young has become the odds-on favorite to be selected with the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young’s odds improved from +153 to -118.
- [December 6] Stroud and Young are now listed as co-favorites to go first overall in the NFL Draft as we approach college football bowl season.
- [September 7] Bryce Young has started taking over as the favorite at some online sportsbooks. Stroud is still the favorite at DraftKings, but Young is atop the board at Caesars Sportsbook, and listed as co-favorite alongside Stroud at FanDuel.
- [April 29] Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud has opened as the favorite to go first-overall in the 2023 NFL Draft at +200 odds. Bryce Young is a close second at +225.
Previous NFL First Overall Picks
|Year||1st Overall Pick|
|2022||Travon Walker (DE)|
|2021||Trevor Lawrence (QB)|
|2020||Joe Burrow (QB)|
|2019||Kyler Murray (QB)|
|2018||Baker Mayfield (QB)|
Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:
- Notre Dame, USC, and Oklahoma are tied for the most first overall picks coming from their respective schools with five each
- Here’s the positional breakdown of the 86 total first overall picks: 34 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, seven offensive linemen, three wide receivers, three linebackers, and one defensive back
- The first overall pick has been a quarterback in four of the last five drafts, and six of the last eight
- No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
- Three of the last five first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker, the most recent first overall picks, did not
Odds to Be a Top Pick in 2023 NFL Draft
|Player||Odds to Be 2nd Pick||Odds to Be 3rd Pick||Odds to Be 4th Pick||Odds to Be 5th Pick||Odds to Be 6th Pick||Odds to Be 7th Pick||Odds to Be 8th Pick||Odds to Be 9th Pick||Odds to Be 10th Pick|
|Will McDonald IV||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||+1500|
|Paris Johnson Jr||+10000||+400||+1200||+4000||+3000||+350||+1500||+350||+450|
|Lukas Van Ness||–||–||–||+7500||–||+5000||+400||+2000||+400|
|Joey Porter Jr||–||–||–||–||+3000||–||+2500||+2500||+1400|
As of April 18, Will Anderson took over as the favorite to be the second-overall pick, which is currently held by the Houston Texans. Prior to April 18, it was either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud given the best odds to go second-overall. As of April 25, Will Levis took over as the new favorite to be the second-overall pick. That only lasted a day, though, as Tyree Wilson became the favorite for the first time on Wednesday. As of draft day, we are back to Will Anderson being the heavy favorite to go second-overall.
The favorite to go third-overall depended on where you were looking. DraftKings had Paris Johnson Jr while others have Will Anderson on Wednesday. As of Thursday, all sportsbooks have come to a consensus with CJ Stroud being the favorite. This means sportsbooks feel the Cardinals will move down.
Will Levis was the favorite to go fourth-overall to the Colts for a very long time, but that came to an end today. Sportsbooks now either list Levis and Anthony Richardson as co-favorites or Richardson as the lone favorite.
Anthony Richardson enjoyed a brief moment of being the favorite to go fifth-overall but Jalen Carter now holds that title.
The table below showcases the odds to be a top 5, 10, and 31 (first round) pick.
|Players||Top 5 Odds||Top 10 Odds||First Round Odds|
|Paris Johnson Jr||+150||-1000||–|
|Luke Van Ness||+10000||+240||–|
|Will McDonald IV||+10000||+2500||-350|
|Joey Porter Jr||+10000||+1500||–|
|John Michael Schmitz||–||–||+200|
You see a lot of blanks in the table above because sportsbooks don’t want to offer odds propositions they believe are certainties, such as Will Levis being a top ten or first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Some of the more interesting odds above are as follows:
- Hendon Hooker now being favored to be selected in the first-round. Hooker was believed to be an early second-round pick up until a couple days ago.
- Paris Johnson Jr being -475 to be a top ten pick – this one has corrected itself since I highlighted it. I hope many of you jumped on it! Johnson’s over/under was set at 9.5 with the over favored. The under is now heavily favored with the line movement.
- Kelee Ringo being +200 to be a first-round pick – Ringo has been one of the most up-and-down prospects in the draft depending on which sportsbook you take your odds from.
Draft Position Over/Unders
|Player||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Anthony Richardson||Over 4.5 (-150)||Under 4.5 (+110)|
|Tyree Wilson||Over 4.5 (-195)||Under 4.5 (+155)|
|Devon Witherspoon||Over 6.5 (+180)||Under 6.5 (-230)|
|Bijan Robinson||Over 10.5 (-140)||Under 10.5 (+110)|
|Nolan Smith||Over 10.5 (-250)||Under 10.5 (+200)|
|Peter Skoronski||Over 10.5 (-140)||Under 10.5 (+110)|
|Jaxon Smith-Njigba||Over 12.5 (-300)||Under 12.5 (+235)|
|Broderick Jones||Over 14.5 (-220)||Under 14.5 (+180)|
|Lukas Van Ness||Over 14.5 (+125)||Under 14.5 (-165)|
|Myles Murphy||Over 18.5 (-250)||Under 18.5 (+200)|
|Joey Porter Jr||Over 19.5 (-220)||Under 19.5 (+175)|
|Deonte Banks||Over 20.5 (+100)||Under 20.5 (-130)|
|Michael Mayer||Over 21.5 (-130)||Under 21.5 (+100)|
|Dalton Kincaid||Over 24.5 (+200)||Under 24.5 (-250)|
|Quentin Johnson||Over 26.5 (+160)||Under 26.5 (-205)|
|Bryan Bresee||Over 29.5 (-200)||Under 29.5 (+160)|
|Hendon Hooker||Over 31.5 (+125)||Under 31.5 (-150)|
Sportsbooks have been a little shy about opening draft position over/unders this year. We will continue to update the table above as more odds become available. When betting this prop, keep in mind the “under” means they will be selected before that pick, while the “over” means they will be selected after that pick.
No more than a month ago, Anthony Richardson’s over/under was set at 3.5 with the under heavily favored. His line is now 4.5 with the over favored. Tyree Wilson is another player who has seen swift movement. He was favored to be the second-overall pick on Wednesday, but is now seeing an over/under of 4.5 with the over favored.
Odds to Be Second Quarterback Selected in NFL Draft
|Quarterback||Odds to Be Second QB Taken|
CJ Stroud was originally the favorite to be the first QB taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Bryce Young took over as the favorite up until March 10, when the Panthers traded up for the first overall pick. Carolina’s move up the board resulted in heavy line movement in Stroud’s favor, making him the favorite again. That changed again over Easter weekend, though. Young is now given -1000 odds to be the first quarterback off the board in April. Stroud still had the second-best odds at +700 when odds were last available on Monday. Sportsbooks have now closed this prop down as they believe Young is a near certainty to go first-overall.
The table above is now odds to be the second QB taken, where Will Levis surprisingly overtook CJ Stroud as the favorite as of Tuesday. Levis was given -190 odds at the time. Stroud has taken back over on draft day with -250 odds.
Odds as of April 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds to Be First Running Back Selected in NFL Draft
|Running Back||Odds to Be First RB Taken|
Based on the betting odds, there is no greater certainty in the NFL Draft than Bijan Robinson being the first running back selected. Robinson is given -10000 odds with Jahmyr Gibbs having the second-best odds at +1000.
Odds to Be First Wide Receiver Selected in NFL Draft
|Wide Receiver||Odds to Be First WR Taken|
Odds to be the first WR taken in the 2023 NFL Draft opened in late-January. Jordan Addison out of USC opened as the favorite, but saw Quentin Johnston (TCU) overtake him. After the NFL Combine, there is a new name favored to be the first WR taken: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The former Ohio State receiver is the odds-on favorite at -300.
Addison has seen his odds plummet from +275 to +800 after a mediocre showing at the NFL Combine that included him exiting with a back injury.
Zay Flowers (+250), Jordan Addison (+800), Quentin Johnston (+800), and Jalin Hyatt (+3000) round out the top five contenders.
Odds as of April 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds to Be First Tight End Selected in NFL Draft
|Tight End||Odds to Be First TE Taken|
Odds to be the first TE selected in the 2023 NFL Draft opened after the NFL Combine. Dalton Kincaid opened as the favorite, but Michael Mayer took over as the favorite shortly after. Following Easter weekend, we saw this flip-flop again, with Kincaid back to being the favorite. It has shifted again during the week of the NFL Draft with Mayer favored again at -180.
Odds to Be First Offensive Lineman Selected in NFL Draft
|Offensive Linemen||Odds to Be First OL Taken|
|Paris Johnson Jr||-450|
|John Michael Schmitz||+7500|
After the NFL Combine wrapped up, sportsbooks released odds on the first offensive lineman to be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. Paris Johnson Jr opened as the favorite but Peter Skoronski took over shortly after. We now see Johnson Jr listed as the heavy favorite at -450 with Skoronski next on the board at +500.
Odds to Be First Defensive Player Selected in NFL Draft
|Joey Porter Jr||+10000|
|Lukas Van Ness||+10000|
Former Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter was the favorite to be the first defensive player taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, but saw his odds fade since being arrested on charges of reckless driving and racing. Carter’s odds went from +110 to +700 now, allowing Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson to jump him on the board.
Anderson was the new favorite to be the first defensive player taken up until draft week, when Tyree Wilson took over as the favorite. As of Thursday, Anderson has taken back over as the favorite with -350 odds.
Odds to Be First Linebacker Selected in NFL Draft
|Linebacker||Odds to Be First LB Taken|
Jack Campbell opened as the favorite to be the first linebacker selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, but Drew Sanders took over in early April. As of Tuesday, Campbell was back to being the favorite with +100 odds. That changed again less than 24 hours later as Sanders is favored at -250 now. Keep in mind, sportsbooks are referring to inside (or off-ball) linebackers here. They are not including outside linebackers or stand-up edge rushers.
Odds to Be First Cornerback Selected in NFL Draft
|Cornerback||Odds to Be First CB Taken|
|Joey Porter Jr||+2200|
Christian Gonzalez was the heavy favorite to be the first corner selected in the NFL Draft. Gonzalez opened with -190 odds but has since faded to +180 as Devon Witherspoon has taken over as the favorite. Witherspoon is now given -300 odds to be the first corner taken.
Odds to Make the First Pick in 2023 NFL Draft
|Team||Odds to Make 1st Overall Selection|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1200|
|New York Jets||+5000|
Though the Chicago Bears held the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, it was unlikely they would actually make the selection since they have committed to Justin Fields as their starting QB. So, sportsbooks were allowing you to bet on which team will make the first selection.
The Houston Texans were the favorites to make a trade with the Bears to acquire the first overall pick. Houston’s odds were -135. The Colts had the next best odds at +225. The Bears were given +750 odds to hold onto the pick.
This bet has all but settled now, though, as the Panthers have traded up to acquire the first pick from the Chicago Bears. Carolina gives up the ninth-overall pick, 61st-overall pick, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and DJ Moore. Anyone who bet the Panthers is going to be receiving 3-1 off their risk.
2023 NFL Draft Order – First Round
|1||Carolina Panthers (from CHI)|
|5||Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)|
|6||Detroit Lions (from LAR)|
|7||Las Vegas Raiders|
|10||Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)|
|12||Houston Texans (from CLE)|
|13||New York Jets|
|14||New England Patriots|
|15||Green Bay Packers|
|19||Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|21||Los Angeles Chargers|
|25||New York Giants|
|29||New Orleans Saints (from SF)|
|31||Kansas City Chiefs|
With the 2022-23 NFL season wrapping up, we now know the complete NFL Draft order. You can see the entire first round above.
You will notice there are only 31 picks in the first-round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but there are 32 teams in the NFL. This is because the Miami Dolphins forfeited their own first-round pick after an investigation showed the team violated league policies around the integrity of the game—they spoke with Tom Brady and Sean Payton while both were still under contract. This is very important to keep in mind when betting on players to be taken in the first round of the draft. Be sure you read the market carefully, as there will be a difference between the first round and the first 32 picks.
Odds to Have the First Overall Pick in 2023 NFL Draft
|New York Jets||+500|
|New York Giants||+1400|
Odds as of September 7.
To start the 2022 NFL season, the Houston Texans had the lowest NFL win total and the best odds to finish the season with the fewest regular season wins. This would suggest they are the favorite to get the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft at this point.
Teams to Select First in Past Drafts
|Year||Team with 1st Pick|
Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:
- The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
- Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
- The first overall pick has been traded five times, most recently in 2016 when the Rams traded up for Jared Goff
- A team from the AFC North has had the first overall pick in three of the last six seasons
- The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works
Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.
If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.
The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.
Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.