Chiefs vs Bears Week 16 SNF Props: Hill For The Win

• Can the (7-7) Chicago Bears slow down the (10-4) Chiefs, winners of 4 straight?
• Two of the most talented players in the NFL will be relied on to make the last SNF game of the regular season a winning one
• A 1-2 Week 15 cost me -1.36 units adding to a tough season seeing me down -11.77 units

Week 15 looked promising partway through the fourth quarter but it was not to be as a potential big week turned south adding to a rough season playing SNF props. Let’s see if we can’t find something positive to finish it off.

The final SNF showdown of the 2019 regular season features a team that fell short of expectations when the 7-7 Chicago Bears play host to a team full of Super Bowl aspirations, the 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s check out a few props of interest and see if I can’t finish this season making Christmas a little merrier.

Prop #1: Mitch Trubisky Over/Under 231.5 Passing Yards

All odds taken Dec. 21

The Kansas City Chiefs have found an identity on defense. Pretend there is no rushing in the NFL and sell out to stop the pass. The Chiefs rushing defense allows 131.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Meanwhile, an out-of-nowhere shutdown pass defense curently ranks 11th in the league, giving up 225.1 passing yards a game.

I say shutdown pass defense because since their bye in Week 12, the Chiefs have held the combination of Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Drew Lock to a total of 599 passing yards. The high water mark came from Carr, who passed for 222 yards in a complete blowout loss in Week 13.

Crazy stat of the day:

The #Patriots ‘historic’ secondary has allowed 138 receptions to wide receivers this season.

The #Chiefs have allowed a league-low 132.

Spags has completely turned this defense around (via @MikeClayNFL) pic.twitter.com/KiiVrQobCI

— The Reid Option (@ReidOptionKC) December 16, 2019

Only three times this season has Mitch Trubisky passed for over 275 yards. He has been under 255 yards nine times, not including the Week 4 game which he left after throwing only three passes. He has finished under 231.5 passing yards in six of his 12 healthy games.

Pick: Trubisky under 231.5 passing yards (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Pat Mahomes Over/Under 270.5 Passing Yards

Since coming back from a dislocated kneecap Pat Mahomes hasn’t quite been himself. Everyone knows he is not the same guy that lit the NFL up in 2018, but the Chiefs’ lack of run game has them relying on Mahomes whether he is 100% of not. In his five games since returning from injury the Chiefs have had Mahomes throw 185 pass attempts (37 per game) versus 135 rush attempts, 17 of which came from Mahomes. With a run offense that ranks 25th in the league, Mahomes will once again be called upon to carry the offensive load.

As Mitch Trubisky and Pat Mahomes prepare to square off, I looked at my interviews with scouts before the 2017 draft. Three big takeaways: both were risky picks, both were challenging to evaluate, and selecting either meant betting on the come. https://t.co/Ysyv5fJQK6

— Dan Pompei (@danpompei) December 22, 2019

Luckily for Mahomes the Bears’ stellar defense has been not so stellar as of late. They rank 13th against the pass and have seen Dak Prescott hit them up for 334 yards and undrafted David Blough have his biggest day as a pro with 280 yards and two TDs in recent weeks.

Pick: Pat Mahomes over 270.5 passing yards (-114)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units

Prop #3: Player Stat Treble: Tyreek Hill

With my last bet of the year for SNF props, let’s take a bit of a shot.

Since the beginning of 2018 Tyreek Hill has met or exceeded this stat line in six out of his 26 games played. That works out to 23% of the time. He’s achieved it twice so far in 2019- back in Weeks 9 and 10. Since the Chiefs’ Week 12 bye, Hill has not had less than five catches or 55 yards. Two of those grabs went for scores last week in blizzard-like conditions.

A perfect throw in the snow!@PatrickMahomes to @Cheetah for the 41-yard TD! #ChiefsKingdom

?: #DENvsKC on CBS
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/ALWDCpltog pic.twitter.com/GVxSABML7w

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2019

The Bears’ pass defense has been had by opposing number one receivers each of the last three weeks. In Week 15, Davante Adams put up a 7-103-1 stat line for the Packers. In Week 14 Amari Cooper hit the Bears up for a 6-83-1 line and Kenny Galladay burned the Bears for 4-158-1 in Week 13 .

This is a very doable line for one of the most talented receivers in the league in a game the Chiefs still have plenty on the line for.

Pick: Tyreek Hill has 6+rec, 75+yards, 1+TD (+229)
Risk: 3 units to win 6.87 units