- Sportsbooks are reporting heavy action of the Kansas City Chiefs in their Sunday Night Football game against the Indianapolis Colts
- The sportsbook notes that 71% of against the spread wagers and 78% of ATS money is bet on the Chiefs
- Check below for our primetime preview, complete with analysis and betting prediction
Are the Kansas City Chiefs about to launch a third straight NFL season with five successive victories? The Indianapolis Colts might have something to say about that.
Or maybe they won’t. At least that appears to be the opinion of the sharps at sportsbooks.
Even though the Chiefs are whopping 10.5-point favorites, the sportsbook reports that 71% of against the spread money on this game is being wagered on KC. As well, sportsbooks note that 78% of their handle is ATS bets on the Chiefs.
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
|Indianapolis Colts||+447||+10.5 (-110)||Over 56.0 (-110)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-600||-10.5 (-110)||Under 56.0 (-110)|
*Odds taken 10/06/19.
It’s their fourth-most lopsided game of the week in terms of money wagered.
Polar Opposite Offenses
These are two teams that are polar opposites in terms of how they like to operate offensively. Kansas City is built around the passing attack of reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. He’s second in the NFL in passing yards (1,510). He’s tied for second in the league in touchdown passes (10) and is the leader in passer rating (120.4).
You thought @PatrickMahomes was on fire?
— #FootballWeekNBCSN (@SNFonNBC) October 4, 2019
The Chiefs are #1 in the NFL in passing yardage (373 yards per game). Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (13th) is the only Kansas City receiver in the top 20 but seven Chiefs have caught at least eight balls. And Mahomes has not thrown a single interception.
Marlon Mack is their #1 back, and he's really slippery
1. Good vision
2. Small but elusive
3. Nice burst
4. Contact balance
Mack is really underrated. Chiefs are going to have a handful with him pic.twitter.com/Z6hcdZfIvY
— Nate Christensen (@natech32) October 3, 2019
Indy makes hay on the ground. The Colts are the NFL’s #7 rushing team (132.5 ypg) but just 11th overall in yards per carry (4.6). Marlon Mack paces them with 338 yards on the ground. That’s seventh in the NFL. But Mack gained 174 yards of that total in the season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Neither of these teams are good at keeping the other team from putting up points. Kansas City ranks 30th overall in NFL team defense (408.5 ypg).
Though the Colts rank 16th in raw numbers (363 ypg), analytically, they are much worse. Football Outsiders rates Indianapolis 31st in the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at 17.8%.
Until I see different, I will always take the field over the #Chiefs to win a SB because their defense is just bad. They can't stop anyone. They can barely slow anyone down.
— Mark Zinno (@MarkZinno) September 29, 2019
The Chiefs are 31st in the NFL against the run (49.8 ypg). The Detroit Lions were able to run for 186 yards against KC last week. This could play into Indy’s hands. If the Colts can operate a ball-control offense, it would keep Mahomes off the field.
Colts Injuries Adding Up
There’s a flaw in Indy’s plan to run the ball. Mack only had two second-half carries in last week’s loss to the Oakland Raiders. He’s listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Receiver TY Hilton (quad) is expected to play. Linebacker Darius Leonard (concussion), who led the NFL in tackles last season, is out.
For the SNF game, there is optimism that #Colts WR TY Hilton (quad) plays, while RB Marlon Mack (ankle) is a game-time call, but the team will be cautious. Meanwhile, #Chiefs RB Damien Williams (knee) and WR Sammy Watkins (shoulder) both should play, sources say.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 6, 2019
Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins (shoulder) and running back Damien Williams (knee) should play. KC WR Tyreek Hill (collarbone) is out.
Chiefs will Handle the Big Number
Kansas City has won the past two meetings with Indy but the Colts own a 13-4 edge straight up in their last 17 games with the Chiefs. However, every one of those victories was earned with either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck at QB. Jacoby Brissett has never faced Kansas City.
Really makes ya think….
— #FootballWeekNBCSN (@SNFonNBC) October 5, 2019
Indy is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 against KC. But the Colts are 1-16 SU the last 17 times they were double-digit underdogs. They’re 2-6 ATS the last eight games facing a double-digit spread.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5).
Let's have fun and keep it civil.