Chiefs Open as 6-Point Favorites vs Titans in AFC Championship
- Books have opened the Kansas City Chiefs as six-point favorites to beat the Tennessee Titans in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game
- The Chiefs haven’t been to the Super Bowl since 1970
- The Titans are 1-1 in AFC Championship Games – read below for our prediction on how the line will move before kickoff
Traditionally, the AFC Championship Game has not been kind to the Kansas City Chiefs or Tennessee Titans. The Chiefs are 0-2 in AFC title games. KC made both of its trips to the Super Bowl in 1967 and 1970 as champions of the now-defunct AFL.
Tennessee is 1-1 in the AFC Championship but if you factor in the Titans’ previous life as the Houston Oilers, that record drops to 1-3.
The Titans captured their lone AFC title in 1999, bouncing the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-14.
Sportsbooks’ opening line put the Chiefs as six-point favorites over the Titans, but that number quickly went up to KC -7. The Chiefs are 6-3 against the spread at home this season.
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | +270 | +7.0 (-103) | Over 51.0 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -325 | -7.0 (-123) | Under 51.0 (-105) |
Odds taken Jan. 12th
Kansas City lost 37-31 to the New England Patriots in last season’s AFC Championship Game. Teams returning to the AFC title game after losing the previous season are 5-6 straight up.
Chiefs Flex Their Muscles
When drawing a blueprint for postseason success, spotting the other team a 24-0 lead is a faulty formula. Yet the Chiefs found a way to make it work.
A Kansas City Comeback ?
Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs were down 24-0 … now they're one game from the Super Bowl! pic.twitter.com/qpRebfq37Y
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 12, 2020
Roaring back to lead 28-24 by halftime, Kansas City rolled to a 51-31 victory over the Houston Texans. KC put together a 51-7 run.
There hasn’t been a scorefest like this in the NFL playoffs since the Arizona Cardinals outlasted the Green Bay Packers 51-45 in a 2009 NFC Wild Card game.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes became the first player in NFL playoff history to pass for five touchdowns and 300 yards and rush for 50 yards.
Titans Can Control Clock
Derrick Henry has been carrying the ball and carrying the Titans on his back when they’ve needed him the most. The NFL’s leading regular-season rusher with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns, Henry has gone over 180 yards in three successive games.
He’s the first running back in NFL history to do that, and Henry has accomplished this in the season-ending win at Houston that earned Tennessee a playoff spot, and in postseason victories at New England and Baltimore.
Derrick Henry is the 1st player in NFL history with 180+ rush yards in 3 straight games. ? pic.twitter.com/iUfKrMNCko
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2020
The Chiefs were 26th in the NFL at stopping the run this season (128.2 yards per game). That’s the worst of any of this season’s playoff teams.
If they can’t halt Henry, the Titans can win the time of possession battle and keep Mahomes and the explosive KC offense on the sideline.
AFC Championship A Titanic Struggle
The Titans are 9-3 in their last 12 games. In successive weeks, they’ve handled the NFL’s #1 scoring defense (New England, 14.2 points per game) and the league’s #1 scoring offense (Baltimore, 33.2 ppg).
That’s only the third time this has happened in the postseason since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The other two teams to do so – the 1988 San Francisco 49ers and the 2004 Patriots – both won the Super Bowl.
The @Titans are the 3rd team since the 1970 merger to beat the No. 1 scoring offense (Ravens) and No. 1 scoring defense (Patriots) in the same postseason.
The other 2 teams both won the Super Bowl (1988 49ers, 2004 Patriots). pic.twitter.com/TaQlGhQtxm
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 12, 2020
Tennessee has beaten the defending Super Bowl champs (New England) and this season’s Super Bowl favorites (Baltimore). They’ve got the better of Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back playoff games.
On top of that, Tennessee has won its last four meetings with the Chiefs, including a playoff game and the past three games played at Kansas City. The Titans are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games with the Chiefs.
Updated chance to win the Super Bowl, per FPI:
Chiefs 38%
49ers 32%
Titans 15%
Packers 7%
Texans 4%
Seahawks 3%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 12, 2020
Kansas City’s most recent loss this season? A 35-32 setback handed to the Chiefs by Tennessee.
You really think the Titans should be seven-point underdogs in this game?
Remember to bet the Titans right away, because this spread should quickly grow smaller.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
