Chiefs Open as 6-Point Favorites vs Titans in AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs opened as six-point favorites to beat the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game. Photo by Jordan Kelly/Icon Sportswire.
  • BetOnline opened the Kansas City Chiefs as six-point favorites to beat the Tennessee Titans in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game
  • The Chiefs haven’t been to the Super Bowl since 1970
  • The Titans are 1-1 in AFC Championship Games – read below for our prediction on how the line will move before kickoff

Traditionally, the AFC Championship Game has not been kind to the Kansas City Chiefs or Tennessee Titans. The Chiefs are 0-2 in AFC title games. KC made both of its trips to the Super Bowl in 1967 and 1970 as champions of the now-defunct AFL.

Tennessee is 1-1 in the AFC Championship but if you factor in the Titans’ previous life as the Houston Oilers, that record drops to 1-3.

The Titans captured their lone AFC title in 1999, bouncing the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-14.

BetOnline’s opening line put the Chiefs as six-point favorites over the Titans, but that number quickly went up to KC -7. The Chiefs are 6-3 against the spread at home this season.

Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total at BetOnline
Tennessee Titans +270 +7.0 (-103) Over 51.0 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -325 -7.0 (-123) Under 51.0 (-105)

Odds taken Jan. 12th

Kansas City lost 37-31 to the New England Patriots in last season’s AFC Championship Game. Teams returning to the AFC title game after losing the previous season are 5-6 straight up.

Chiefs Flex Their Muscles

When drawing a blueprint for postseason success, spotting the other team a 24-0 lead is a faulty formula. Yet the Chiefs found a way to make it work.

Roaring back to lead 28-24 by halftime, Kansas City rolled to a 51-31 victory over the Houston Texans. KC put together a 51-7 run.

There hasn’t been a scorefest like this in the NFL playoffs since the Arizona Cardinals outlasted the Green Bay Packers 51-45 in a 2009 NFC Wild Card game.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes became the first player in NFL playoff history to pass for five touchdowns and 300 yards and rush for 50 yards.

Titans Can Control Clock

Derrick Henry has been carrying the ball and carrying the Titans on his back when they’ve needed him the most. The NFL’s leading regular-season rusher with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns, Henry has gone over 180 yards in three successive games.

He’s the first running back in NFL history to do that, and Henry has accomplished this in the season-ending win at Houston that earned Tennessee a playoff spot, and in postseason victories at New England and Baltimore.

The Chiefs were 26th in the NFL at stopping the run this season (128.2 yards per game). That’s the worst of any of this season’s playoff teams.

If they can’t halt Henry, the Titans can win the time of possession battle and keep Mahomes and the explosive KC offense on the sideline.

AFC Championship A Titanic Struggle

The Titans are 9-3 in their last 12 games. In successive weeks, they’ve handled the NFL’s #1 scoring defense (New England, 14.2 points per game) and the league’s #1 scoring offense (Baltimore, 33.2 ppg).

That’s only the third time this has happened in the postseason since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The other two teams to do so – the 1988 San Francisco 49ers and the 2004 Patriots – both won the Super Bowl.

Tennessee has beaten the defending Super Bowl champs (New England) and this season’s Super Bowl favorites (Baltimore). They’ve got the better of Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back playoff games.

On top of that, Tennessee has won its last four meetings with the Chiefs, including a playoff game and the past three games played at Kansas City. The Titans are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games with the Chiefs.

Kansas City’s most recent loss this season? A 35-32 setback handed to the Chiefs by Tennessee.

You really think the Titans should be seven-point underdogs in this game?

Remember to bet the Titans right away, because this spread should quickly grow smaller.


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