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Conference Championship Betting Line Movement, Updated AFC and NFC NFL Playoff Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 27, 2023 · 12:11 PM PST

Patrick Mahomes of Chiefs delivering a pass
Jan 21, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • In NFL Conference Championship betting line movement, the AFC Championship Game is acting like a bouncing ball
  • Both the hometown Kansas City Chiefs and visiting Cincinnati Bengals have taken turns as the favorite and the underdog in this game
  • The NFC Championship Game has been steadfast with the Philadelphia Eagles as a 2.5-point home pick over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Playoff odds

The NFL Conference Championship betting line movement is making like a yo-yo when it comes to the AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL Playoff odds.

On the other hand, it’s been steady as she goes in the action on the NFC Championship Game featuring the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles opened as a 1.5-point home favorite and have since grown to the 2.5-point chalk.

Currently, the Chiefs and Bengals are listed as pick’em. Kansas City opened as the 1-point home chalk, but at one juncture, Cincinnati was a 2.5-point away favorite.

Let’s take a look into all of the week’s line movement. First, though, check out the up-to-the-minute Conference Championship Sunday NFL odds.

Conference Championship NFL Playoff Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Cincinnati Bengals -110 PICK (-110) Over 47 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -110 PICK (-110) Under 47 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
San Francisco 49ers +122 +2.5 (-105) Over 46 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles -145 -2.5 (-115) Under 46 (-110)

Odds as of January 27 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In the NFL Conference Championship against the spread picks, underdogs have covered in three of the last four games. Five of the last seven games have gone over the total.

Bengals Used to Big Spread Movement

In each of the first two playoff rounds, the line on the Bengals game lengthened by two points. Cincinnati went from the 6.5-point home chalk to an 8.5 pick over Baltimore on Wild Card Weekend following an injury to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Bengals failed to cover in a 24-17 victory.

Last week in their 27-10 Divisional Round win at Buffalo, the Bengals moved from 3.5 to 5.5-point road underdogs and easily covered.

This week, Cincinnati started as 1-point road underdogs. Soon, as concern about the ankle injury to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes grew, the Bengals were being made a 2.5-point road favorite. But as Mahomes was showing that he appeared to be okay, the line slid back to pick’em.

All of this back-and-forth jockeying created the biggest spread move of Conference Championship week.

Mahomes Hobbling, AFC Championship Game Total Shrinking 

The NFL betting sites are also displaying that the concern over the ability of Mahomes to play at the top of his game is impacting the total on the Bengals vs Chiefs game.

In the Conference Championship opening odds, the over/under for Cincinnati vs Kansas City was set at 50.5 points. However, the concern about the health of Mahomes and his obvious inability to be himself in KC’s Divisional Round win over Jacksonville steadily picked away at the total.

Today, the Bengals and Chiefs are set at a total of 47 points. That 3.5-point shrinkage is creating the biggest total move of the week.

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Eagles Biggest Favorite of NFL Final Four

The Eagles have not proven to be an impressive ATS squad this season. They are treading water at 9-9.

On the other hand, the 49ers are 13-6 ATS. But San Francisco is 3-4 ATS on the road. The Niners are 1-0 ATS as a road underdog, though.

Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS as a home team and as a home favorite. The Eagles are also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games against the 49ers, so perhaps the fact that Philadelphia is set as the biggest favorite of Conference Championship Sunday shouldn’t really be that much of a surprise.

The NFL public betting trends are also backing Philadelphia. The Eagles and getting the majority of the action in handle and bets both on the moneyline and the spread.

Three Is Wild In AFC Championship Game 

This is the third meeting between Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Mahomes. The Bengals have won all three games by the margin of exactly a field goal – three points.

That’s including last year’s AFC Championship Game, which saw the Bengals winning 27-24 at Kansas City. Perhaps then, it should be no wonder that this game would offer the smallest spread of the week.

Cincinnati is a road-covering machine. The Bengals are an NFL-best 8-2 ATS as an away team this season. They’re 2-0 ATS as an away underdog and 5-2 ATS as an away favorite.

The Chiefs are a dismal 2-6-1 ATS at home this season. As a home favorite, Kansas City is 2-5-1. When a home underdog, the Chiefs are 0-1 ATS.

Big Total Is Actually Small for Chiefs

The AFC Championship Game between Cincinnati and Kansas City is showing the week’s largest total. That’s old hat for the Chiefs. What isn’t usual is how low the high number is being set.

Already this season, 11 KC games featured a total of 50+ points. With this week’s game set at 47 points, it’s only the fifth time the over/under has gone so low.

Certainly, the Mahomes ankle injury is a significant factor in the low number, but it isn’t the only one. Historically, the Chiefs and Bengals hit on the under. Seven of the last Cincinnati at Kansas City games went under. Overall, 11 of the past 14 Bengals vs Chiefs games hit on the under.

Cincinnati’s 27-24 victory earlier this season over KC went under the total of 53 points. Last year’s AFC title game, also a 27-24 Bengals victory, went under the total of 54.5 points.

Stingy Niners Back In NFC Championship Game

This is the fifth time San Francisco has made it back to the NFC Championship a year after losing in the game. They are 3-1 straight up in the previous four occasions.

During San Francisco’s 12-game win streak, the 49ers have held nine opponents to 17 points or less. Philadelphia has allowed 33 points over the past three games. That averages out to 11 points per game.

Any questions as to why this game, with an over/under of 46 points, is set with the lowest total of NFL Conference Championship Sunday?


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