- Eight team remain in the NFL Playoffs heading into the Divisional Round
- The Dallas Cowboys have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl of any remaining team
- While the Philadelphia Eagles are the biggest dogs to win this weekend
The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have the longest odds to win Super Bowl 53.
While Philly entered the playoffs with the longest average odds of +3100, those odds have shortened to an average of +1500 after their Wild Card Weekend victory.
Dallas, meanwhile, have also seen their odds shorten, but are now the biggest underdogs with average odds of +1700.
Super Bowl 53 Odds
|Team||Odds at Bovada|
|New Orleans Saints||+250|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+400|
|New England Patriots||+550|
*Odds taken 1/7
Elliott and Cowboys Edge Out Seahawks
After being rested in Week 17, Cowboys’ running back Ezekiel Elliott said he was ready for a heavy workload last weekend and he more than delivered.
Zeke ran for 137 yards and a touchdown in the 24-22 win. It was Prescott’s red zone run and goal-line lunge that sealed it for the Cowboys, though.
Dallas had some help with Seattle losing kicker Sebastian Janikowski mid-game with a hamstring injury, which affected Seattle’s gameplan the rest of the way.
Dak Prescott put it all on the line and propelled the Cowboys to a Wild Card victory over the Seahawks.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 7, 2019
The Cowboys defense has been a strength all season ranking seventh in YPG. On Saturday they forced Seattle into six three-and-outs.
Dallas though will need to improve their play on the road as they have the worst road record of any NFC playoff team at 3-5. Of their three road wins, only one came against a winning team, that being over the Eagles in Week 10.
The #Cowboys defense against Top 5 scoring offenses (2018, Min. 2 games)
• 16.5 PPG allowed (1st in NFL)
• 273.0 total YPG allowed (1st in NFL)
• 151.5 pass YPG allowed (1st in NFL)
• 4.75 yards/play (1st in NFL)
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 7, 2019
Dallas will be in tough considering the Rams are 7-1 at home. If you’re betting on Dallas lifting the Lombardi Trophy, their long odds are warranted.
From 2000-2012, only nine teams reached the Super Bowl after playing the Wild Card Round. It gets worse since 2013 as no Wild Card team has made it to the final.
Will Foles Keep Rolling?
The Foles-led Eagles continued their playoff magic with a touchdown in the final minute to defeat the Chicago Bears 16-15.
The win was aided by a missed 43-yard field goal attempt by Bears’ kicker Cody Parkey on fourth down.
Considering the Eagles were inches away from being eliminated, you could make an argument that they should still be the biggest underdogs to win Super Bowl 53.
In fact, based on the Divisional Round Weekend game lines, the Eagles are actually the biggest dog to advance.
ICYMI: The reigning Super Bowl champs get by the Bears after Cody Parkey's game-winning FG attempt was tipped, hit the post AND crossbar.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 7, 2019
The Eagles are +8 dogs at Bovada on the road to New Orleans, while the Cowboys are +7 pups in LA.
Speaking of the Saints, this will be a rematch of a meeting between the teams from November 18. In Week 11 the Eagles traveled to The Big Easy and were run off the field in a 48-7 Saints win.
"It's impossible to not believe in Foles at this point. He's got something colder than ice in his veins. Forget the guys playing. Toss in Elway, Montana, Brady, whoever you want. With the game on the line, there may be no guy I'd rather have under center." – @PSchrags @Eagles pic.twitter.com/RcovbTG3Ia
— GMFB (@gmfb) January 7, 2019
Drew Brees went off for 363 yards and four touchdowns which should concern the Eagles seeing that they allowed the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky to pass for the most yards of any quarterback this past weekend.
Trubisky only averaged 230.2 YPG this season, yet managed 303 on Sunday.
Should You Bet Either Of These Longshots?
At the rate at which NFL underdogs are cashing ATS in the playoffs it may be worth a flyer to grab one of these big dogs heading into the Divisional Round.
While both the Rams and Saints are heavy favorites, neither has looked as strong as they did in the first half of the season.
Underdogs in the NFL playoffs are now 14-1 against the spread in their last 15 playoff games. Amazing.
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 7, 2019
However, keep in mind while dogs have been cashing ATS, since 2010 home teams in the Divisional Round are 23-9.
I think the better value may reside over in the AFC where the Los Angeles Chargers at +900 and Indianapolis Colts +1200 are also still offering long odds.
Compared to the NFC, the AFC’s fifth and sixth seeds have been given better odds to advance to the Conference Championship.
Since 2010 home teams in the Divisional Round are 23-9.
The Colts are +5 dogs in Kansas City and the Chargers +4 in New England.
I liked the Colts at +3000 last week, and if you’re looking for value, I still think the team on a 10-1 run is your best bet.